GOLD, Gold and XAUUSD - page 150
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I’ve got a long flat on GOLDBANDS
Usually, the longer the flat section, the sharper the surge will be afterwards.
Gold was rising faster. They don’t like these rates; they’ll fight them.
Hype? The East and India disagree with you.
A nuclear power? China has its plans mapped out for the next 15 years.
Famine? Yes, wheat, oil, gold, the dollar.
The East was buying, but is now selling off gradually, and is very pleased with this. They want to say thank you; they could have been selling at 1,500 right now.
1. From 2003–2005 to the present day, gold has risen almost as much as the S&P 500. They were pumping in cash, that’s all.
But they pumped in the cash primarily because they wanted to create demand for goods and services, which are growing day by day.
If there’s demand, there’ll be industrial orders, there’ll be jobs, there’ll be GDP growth, there’ll be tax revenue, and so on.
There’s a problem, though. The money being pumped in is going into bubbles!
Incidentally, against the backdrop of rising gold prices and funds ‘up an order of magnitude’, the energy sector is clearly lagging behind! And if it takes off… it’ll be a real ‘wild ride’!
Oil at 300 bucks a barrel? Why not???
2. The East is a delicate matter; they’re used to copying others! Abrupt moves, like Trump’s with Iran, are very painful and unexpected for them!
Although, everything there is clear and straightforward. High oil prices mean GDP growth – paradoxical as it may seem! And what about inflation? Well… it’s like an ‘additional tax’!
The US has its own oil, but high oil prices have hit Europe hardest of all. Europe is a competitor to the US.
The Treasury? Will they fight back? How?
Raising interest rates… that could bring the Fund crashing down!
Remember 2008? They were too late to cut interest rates!
What was the result?
Things are far more complicated now.
Allowing the stock market to crash is absolutely out of the question! But cutting interest rates is also out of the question – inflationary pressure is high.
So, they need… to ensure that, despite the rate rise, the stock market continues to grow!
In other words, gold, as a means of ‘accumulation and saving’, may take a back seat.
In fact, I’m simply trading levels at the moment; it’s the Federal Reserve that interests me, not gold at all, because the Federal Reserve is more volatile against the backdrop of current events, and it’s possible to predict the behaviour of ‘market participants’.
From 2003–2005 to the present day, gold has risen almost as much as the S&P 500. They were pumping in cash, that’s all
If you want to correlate with the S&P 500, check out the GBPJPY. The GBPJPY was positively correlated with the S&P 500 prior to the 2008 Recession, but stalled a bit afterward. Now, it appears to be catching up.
The Treasury? Will they fight back? How?
Raising interest rates… that could bring the Fund crashing down!
FYI, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank controls interest rates─not the U.S. Treasury Department. Having said that, the U.S. Treasury Department attempted to override control of secondary interest rates by messing with U.S. T-Bonds in 2011, and it failed. The present U.S. Administration is attempting to pull the same stunt again, and surprise surprise... it's failing again.
[I]t’s the Federal Reserve that interests me, not gold at all, because the Federal Reserve is more volatile against the backdrop of current events, and it’s possible to predict the behaviour of ‘market participants’.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raised rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on the last go-round, and held flat on the previous go-round. If you're actually referring to the recent volatility of T-Bond yields, then we've come full circle back the U.S. Treasury Deparment's tinkering. Specifically, the 10-Year U.S. T-Bond is somewhat positively correlated with gold.
TBH, I'm wishing that a U.S. markets bubble would burst to bring prices down.If you want to find a correlation with the S&P 500 index, take a look at the GBPJPY pair.
Dear Ryan!
I gather you used a translator that rendered my text incorrectly.
When I wrote ‘ФР’, I meant the *stock market* (Фондовый Рынок), not the Federal Reserve.
When I spoke of Treasuries, I wasn’t referring to the Treasury Department.
After all, it is the Fed that sets interest rates!
Although, to be honest, given the problems in the global economy, I believe the Fed acts in close coordination with all branches of government.
If you want to avoid any ambiguity, let’s communicate in English!
In my view, the situation resembles that of 1930–1939, when measures taken to save the world from the consequences of the Great Depression led to an arms race and, ultimately, to the Second World War.
BTW: The situation with the JPY depends largely on the Bank of Japan’s actions, but that’s hard to predict.
I expect the S&P to rise further despite the rate rises—because for the US, economic growth is more important than inflation!
I think other mechanisms will be used to combat inflation...
However, I see no cause for optimism.
Let me remind you that during the Second World War, US GDP practically doubled!
It is entirely feasible to employ that same mechanism now, although the consequences could be dire.
If the stock market bubble bursts, everything will collapse!
2008 will seem like nothing more than a casual stroll along the riverfront!
This time, the wave could not only sweep away banks but also destroy nations...
I don’t think they’ll let that happen!
It’s more likely to be a 1939–1945 scenario than a global economic collapse!
Good luck!
Paul
If you want to identify a correlation with the S&P 500 index, take a look at the GBPJPY pair. Prior to the 2008 recession, the GBPJPY pair showed a positive correlation with the S&P 500 index, but growth slowed somewhat afterwards. It now appears to be making up for lost ground.
For your information, interest rates are controlled by the US Federal Reserve, not the US Treasury. That said, in 2011, the US Treasury attempted to circumvent control over secondary interest rates by intervening in the US Treasury bond market, but failed. The current US administration is trying to pull off the same trick, and, unsurprisingly… it is failing again.
At its most recent meeting, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points (0.25 per cent), whilst at the previous meeting it left them unchanged. If you are actually referring to the recent volatility in Treasury bond yields, then we are back to square one — to the US Treasury’s manipulations. In particular, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds correlates positively to some extent with the price of gold.
To be honest, I hope the bubble in the US markets bursts so that prices go down.Dear Ryan!
You used a translator when reading my post! The translator is translating the terms incorrectly!
‘FR’ stands for the Stock Market, not the Fed, etc.
I wrote you a reply in English, but it was deleted...
Use simple sentences.
The text is translated automatically.
The moderators then correct it manually.
Then the whole world reads it and translates it from English into their own languages.
It’s very easy to write something really offensive. Yes, that has happened.
BTW: The situation with the JPY depends largely on the Bank of Japan’s actions, but that’s hard to predict.
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Experts: Buy GBPJPY Every Monday. That's the Whole Strategy.
Ryan L Johnson, 2026.09.30 00:07
Prior to the 2008 Recession, the GBPJPY was positively correlated with S&P 500 Index and they were climbing together. Pension funds routinely invested in both every 2 weeks or so. That was even evident in GBPJPY CME Futures volume and O/I. Following the Recession, the GBPJPY didn't recover as quickly as the S&P 500 Index. More recently, the GBPJPY appears to be catching up...