Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 950

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

Why divide the file, if everything is already divided into two files? I just don't know how to do it in R, no one could explain it to me, I guess I'm stupid.

Maybe it's easier to use https://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/downloading.html if you don't have time to study programming?

Weka 3 - Data Mining with Open Source Machine Learning Software in Java
  • www.cs.waikato.ac.nz
There are two versions of Weka: Weka 3.8 is the latest stable version, and Weka 3.9 is the development version. For the bleeding edge, it is also possible to download nightly snapshots. Stable versions receive only bug fixes, while the development version...
 
SanSanych Fomenko:

But here is a different model:

The result is QUANTITELY different, although the model is qualitatively different, should work poorly on your data.


We need to improve the randomForest

Got it, thanks, then I will deal with trees and forests - I like them big and ideologically.

SanSanych Fomenko:

Why divide the file, if everything is already divided into two files? I just do not know how to do it in R, no one could not explain to me, apparently stupid.

Dividing is a piece of cake, the problem is the prejudice against R.


I very much hope that the network will be able to outperform an optimized Expert Advisor on history :)

What is the network for?

No bias, just poor knowledge of the language, no Russian HELP (I already have one book, but the book should be read all through, unlike the HELP, and not sure what was needed there), in general, it is difficult to learn. And it's not clear why people don't like GUI so much, it saves time...

And about the network, I misspoke, it's just about the MO in general.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Where did you pick up so many farthers? Did you manually select the strategy? crazy :)

The logic of scaffolds should be the same.

I picked up these predictors from my bitter experience in manual trading, when I've lost money and I don't understand why I made a mistake when I entered the market. I have a problem - I do not like to lose money and that is why I have a hard time closing positions that cause me big troubles when I trade with hands. After such events you just work hard, testing, analyzing, looking for a solution to avoid a loss, generating ideas, testing them on the history, rejecting some of them, but not others. A lot of ideas are left without implementation because of the difficulty of programming them for me, but they remain on paper, papers fill the table...

Thanks for the reassuring answer about the scaffolding!

 
Roffild:

Maybe, it is easier to use https://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/downloading.html, if it is boring to study programming?

Yes, I have this century - but I don't know how to use it!

And, then, how to make it work with MT5?

 

All this ***, in general, in Rattle in 2015 trained forest, default settings, produced this result

Summary of the Random Forest Model
==================================

Number of observations used to build the model: 98573
Missing value imputation is active.

Call:
 randomForest(formula = as.factor(arr_Buy) ~ .,
              data = crs$dataset[crs$sample, c(crs$input, crs$target)],
              ntree = 500, mtry = 8, importance = TRUE, replace = FALSE, na.action = randomForest::na.roughfix)

               Type of random forest: classification
                     Number of trees: 500
No. of variables tried at each split: 8

        OOB estimate of  error rate: 6.89%
Confusion matrix:
      -1     0     1 class.error
-1 24452  2147    27  0.08164952
0   1138 42398  1180  0.05183827
1     36  2265 24930  0.08449928

I learned means csv file to test the model on other data to load (for this file must first be opened as a file to work with the data, and then exported and already this exported file to open in the tab Evaluate) - loaded for 2016.

Got this dull result


Error matrix for the Random Forest model on Pred_027_2015_H2_T_sample.csv (counts):

      Predicted
Actual   -1     0    1 Error
    -1 4640 30809 4303  88.3
    0  5210 54059 6090  17.3
    1  3237 28118 5466  85.2

Error matrix for the Random Forest model on Pred_027_2015_H2_T_sample.csv (proportions):

      Predicted
Actual  -1    0   1 Error
    -1 3.3 21.7 3.0  88.3
    0  3.7 38.1 4.3  17.3
    1  2.3 19.8 3.9  85.2

Overall error: 54.7%, Averaged class error: 63.6%

What is this retraining, wrong settings, a radically different market?

Then why do I get better results on the tree in Deductor Studio with the same data?


 

Welcome to the world of curvafitting

By the way, I poked around EMD - decomposition has to be done on every new bar, because of this f-f is noisy because with the addition of new data all the mods jump back and forth. Nonsense, only suitable for single cases

nonsense nonsense nonsense nonsense nonsense nonsense. but I discovered a new way to manage positions
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Welcome to the world of curvafitting

By the way, I poked around EMD - decomposition has to be done on every new bar, because of this f-f is noisy because with the addition of new data all the mods jump back and forth. Nonsense, only suitable for single cases.

I've learned a new way to manage positions.

At first I thought, that's it, I've been scolded here, it turns out that the compound word has a different meaning...

Are you suggesting that the issue is that my exit from a position is not based on a pattern, but on a stop loss and this greatly distorts the result?

As for EMD, I have an idea to use this approach to create counter-trend channels...

What's the new way to manage positions?
 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

At first I thought, that's it, I've been scolded here, but it turns out that the compound word has a different meaning...

I was thinking that, at first I thought, well, that's it, I've been scolded here, but it turned out that the compound word has a meaning.

Regarding EMD, I had an idea to use this approach to create counter-trend channels...

And what is the way to manage positions?

It is impossible to use EMD in dynamics because of the above reasons

It takes too much time to explain the method, everything is intertwined with RL

Yes and in your case - the result is expected on the new data. This is almost always the case. Partially solved by ensembles of independent models
 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

Got such a dull result


What is this retraining, wrong settings, fundamentally different market?

Then why am I getting better results on the tree in Deductor Studio with the same data?



The main proof of retraining: I did NOT find any noise predictors - all noise, that's why such good results in training.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

EMD cannot be used in dynamics at all because of the reasons described above

about the way is long to explain, everything is intertwined with RL

And in your case - the result is expected on the new data. This is almost always the case. Partially solved by ensembles of independent models

I'll add a couple more predictors and move on to ensembles.... and then I'll start dancing and tambourines.

Reason: