EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 29.06 - 06.07: Market Rally - page 2
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.07.03 07:09
Dollar supported before jobs data, Aussie slides after RBA comments
The dollar held firm above a recent eight-week low on Thursday, supported by hopes for a healthy rise in nonfarm payrolls, while the Aussie fell after Australia's central bank chief warned that markets are underestimating the risk of a sharp fall in the currency.
Figures from U.S. payrolls processor ADP released on Wednesday added to a string of bullish U.S. data ranging from manufacturing to auto sales, supporting the view that the U.S. economy has bounced back smartly after a first-quarter slump.
Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields rose to the highest in over a week at 2.63 percent on Wednesday in reaction to the data, which in turned helped lift the dollar against a basket of major currencies.
The dollar index inched up about 0.1 percent to 79.999 , having pulled up from an eight-week trough of 79.740 plumbed on Tuesday.
Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.1 percent to 101.87 yen, having only recently hit a six-week low near 101.23.
ADP said private employers added 281,000 workers to payrolls last month, the largest since November 2012, offering hopes for a healthy rise in nonfarm payrolls when the data is released later on Thursday.
"Our economists agree with market consensus looking for non-farm payrolls to rise by more than 200,000 for a fifth consecutive month," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note to clients.
"If the forecast turns out to be correct, this will mark the first five-month run of above 200,000 prints since January 2000."
The euro eased 0.1 percent to $1.3648. The single currency hovered below a six-week high of $1.3701 set earlier this week, as the market turned its focus to a meeting by the European Central Bank later on Thursday, as well as the U.S. jobs data.
The ECB is unlikely to take fresh policy action at its July gathering after cutting interest rates to record lows last month - the deposit rate to below zero - and revealing a 400 billion-euro ($545.62 billion) loan programme.
"Although no action is expected from the ECB at its meeting today, we anticipate that it will maintain its dovish tone in the face of weak PMI prints, low inflation, and weak bank lending," said analysts at BNP Paribas.
AUSSIE STUNG
The Australian dollar fell 0.7 percent to $0.9377. The Aussie pulled further away from an eight-month peak of $0.9505 set on Tuesday, coming under pressure after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens warned investors they were underestimating the risk of a significant fall in the Australian dollar.
A weak reading on Australian retail sales also added to the already soft tone of the Aussie dollar, which had retreated on Wednesday on profit-taking in the wake of disappointing Australian trade data.
The Aussie's drop below $0.9400 triggered stop-loss selling, said Jeffrey Halley, FX trader for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
"Basically, Governor Stevens timed his talking down of the Australian dollar perfectly to coincide with a soft market," Halley said.
While the Aussie may find some support at levels around $0.9370 and $0.9355, a drop to $0.9300 is now on the cards, Halley added.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.07.03 13:55
Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for NFPs
Traders lulled into a daze by the low volatility ought to grab a coffee for this morning - volatility should be back with a vengeance. Thanks to the holiday-shortened week for the July 4 US Independence Day, market participants have been gifted with the European Central Bank rate decision and the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report coming within less than an hour of one another.
Of the two, the ECB rate decision will be the less exciting, given the likelihood that the ECB sits pat after unveiling a plethora of measures last month; simply not enough time has passed for policymakers to determine if said measures have proven effective. ECB President Draghi's press conference, in lieu of substantive action, will carry additional weight.
With the June US ADP Employment report showing jobs growth north of +280K (which only tallies private payrolls, not government jobs), there is a distinct possibility that the June US NFP figure comes in above +250K. Considering that the Federal Reserve's tone has started to diverge from incoming economic data (the Fed is behind the curve, as they say), a strong June jobs report could be the spark the buck needs to move off of its lowest levels since October.
See the video above for details on trade setups in EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD, and USDJPYForum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.07.03 12:16
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 215K in June, but the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may spark a mixed reaction in the EUR/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations of seeing the longest stretch of 200K+ prints since 1999-2000, it seems as though we would need a more meaningful pickup in job growth for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to soften its dovish tune for monetary policy, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback may continue to take shape going into the Fed’s July 30 as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the highly accommodative policy stance.
The pickup in private sector hiring along with the ongoing improvement in business confidence raises the scope for a better-than-expected NFP print, and a strong employment read may mitigate the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to move away from its easing cycle.
However, the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may continue to drag on job growth, and a weak NFP figure may trigger selloff in the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) beyond 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 215K+; Unemployment Holds Steady
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Report Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Preserve Ascending Channel for Now While RSI Retains Long-Term Bearish Trend
- Interim Resistance: 1.3770 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3790 (38.2% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3500 Pivot
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
May 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. economy added another 217K jobs in May following a revised 282K expansion the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly held steady at an annualized 6.3% amid forecasts for a 6.4% print. Despite the downtick in unemployment, the EUR/USD climbed back above the 1.3650 region following the release, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 1.3640.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.07.03
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 48 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.07.04 08:06
EUR/USD Forecast July 4, 2014, Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, as the jobs number out of the United States came out better than originally anticipated, so this of course grow the value of the US dollar higher against most currencies. The European Central Bank course has suggested that it was ready to do whatever it took to keep the market and economy afloat, and as a result it appears that the ECB could keep monetary policy loose, and perhaps even add to that loosened monetary policy. However, there is a significant amount of noise below, so really this market still looks as if it’s ready to bounce around.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.07.04 17:39
Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD (based on fxstreet article)
EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Influenced by the news, Euro is forming consolidation channel. We think, today price may leave its descending channel and continue growing up to break level of 1.3650 again and then reach level of 1.3700. We remind you that instrument is forming the third ascending wave with target at level of 1.3790.
