D1 price is on bearish market condition to be located below Ichimoku cloud/kumo and trying to break 1.3635 support level on close bar for the primary bearish to be continuing.
H4 price was on bearish as well with 1.3615 as the nearest support level.
D1 price will break 1.3635 support so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-05-26 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - GfK German Consumer Climate]
2014-05-26 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
2014-05-27 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
2014-05-27 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
2014-05-27 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
2014-05-28 07:55 GMT (or 09:55 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]
2014-05-28 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Consumer Confidence]
2014-05-29 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2014-05-29 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
2014-05-30 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
2014-05-30 12:30 GMT (or 14:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Personal Consumption Expenditure]
2014-05-30 13:45 GMT (or 15:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Chicago PMI]
2014-05-30 13:55 GMT (or 15:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : bearish
The fractal analysis of the markets is used in the indicator operation algorithm. According to the fractals theory, after the breakthrough of the fractal level confirmed by the closing price located below or above the fractal, the trend wave in the direction of the breakthrough starts to develop. Until the fractal has been passed in the opposite direction, the trend is considered to be acting even if the price is flat or moves backwards. If a bullish fractal has been previously broken through on
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.05.24 10:57
newdigital, 2014.05.24 17:06
newdigital, 2014.05.26 17:48
ECB Alert To Low Inflation Risk, Ready To Take Action, Says Draghi
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday that the
bank remains alert to the risks to a prolonged period of low inflation
and expressed readiness to take action if required.
At an ECB
forum in Sintra, Portugal, Draghi said a prolonged period of low
inflation would call for a more expansionary stance, which would also
include the asset purchase programme.
If a temporary shock turns
more persistent, any monetary policy response might arrive too late, he
said, suggesting more pre-emptive action from the central bank.
expect expansionary actions from the ECB as hinted by Draghi at the
post decision press conference in May. The central bank chief said the
bank would decide on further action after seeing the June macroeconomic
"What we need to be particularly watchful for at the
moment is the potential for a negative spiral to take hold between
between low inflation, falling inflation expectations and credit, in
particular in stressed countries," he said today.
There is a risk
that disinflationary expectations take hold and that may cause
households and firms to defer expenditure in a classic deflationary
cycle, Draghi warned.
Banks may respond to this situation with
stricter credit standards and worsens debt burden. "This is fertile
ground for a pernicious negative spiral, which then also affects
expectations," Draghi said.
of loans, be it on-balance sheet or off-balance sheet, it could help
reduce any drag on the recovery coming from temporary credit supply
constraints, the central banker added.
Further, he said, "We are not resigned to allowing inflation to remain too low for too long."
Inflation has remained below the ECB's target of 'below, but close to 2 percent' for the fifteenth consecutive month in April.
Global Insight's Chief European Economist Howard Archer said the ECB
seems highly likely to cut its refinancing rate from 0.25 percent to
0.15 percent or 0.10 percent and to take its deposit rate marginally
into negative territory.
It is also looks probable that the ECB
will take some liquidity measures in June, he added. However, Archer
said he is doubtful that the bank will undertake full blown quantitative
newdigital, 2014.05.26 17:57
Euro Steady As Anti-EU Parties Rock Elections
The euro dipped before recovering losses against the U.S. dollar on
Monday following European Union (EU) parliamentary elections that saw
several anti-EU parties make significant gains.
Despite thin trading due to a holiday in the U.S. and England, anxious
investors also trained an eye on the outcome of the Ukrainian
presidential election and a European Central Bank (ECB) hosted gathering
in Portugal over the weekend for possible impacts.
Euro equity markets managed to push higher, dismissing the strong gains
antiausterity parties made in the EU parliamentary elections. Heading
into the event risk last Friday, the market had already priced in a
strong euro-skeptic showing. This morning’s push higher is mainly the
Antiausterity Movements Grow Across EU
In France, the National Front (+25% national vote) appeared to score a
historic victory. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian
Socialists looked to be in control, while the euro-skeptic Alternative
for Germany took +7% of the popular vote. Greece’s radical right Golden
Dawn party and the U.K.’s Independence Party also gained considerable
support. It remains unclear whether the results will have a lasting
effect on the markets beyond the beginning of this week. The
repercussions are to be felt more at domestic levels rather than at EU
or national levels. British Prime Minister David Cameron understands
clearly that the electorate in the U.K. is deeply disillusioned with the
EU, but he will not shorten the timescale for negotiating any new deal
with it. Despite the growing European antiausterity voice, it’s not
enough to impact the policy trend, as major political equilibrium
remains unchanged.‘Chocolate King’ Wins Ukrainian Presidency
In Ukraine, candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko declared victory in the first
round of that country’s presidential election. A result not unexpected –
the pro-European businessman took more than half of the vote. The
morning’s fading geopolitical uncertainty is supporting both the Russian
stock market (Micex +1%) and the RUB (USD 34.03 and EUR 46.37)
especially after Russia gave the nod to Kiev’s new government last
Friday. With many uncertainties out of the way, the RUB is expected to
restore its correlation with emerging market currencies.
Draghi Warns of Deflation
Meanwhile, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered nothing new in his
closing remarks at the ECB’s central banker conference this morning. His
comments left the EUR little changed (€1.3840). Not surprisingly, he
sees a risk that expectations for ultralow inflations may delay consumer
and business purchases. Consider it the latest sign that euro
policymakers are prepared to take further easing measures when the ECB’s
Governing Council meets on June 5. Again, he signaled that the ECB is
weighing a “wide variety of steps from interest rate cuts to new bank
loans or broad-based asset purchases” to prevent low inflation from
undermining the region’s promising economic recovery. Euro policymakers
fear that disinflation expectations could take hold.
The real event risk for next week’s ECB meeting is in the outcome: what
if ECB policymakers choose to stand pat yet again? The central bank
cannot afford to do so at this well telegraphed meeting, otherwise the
ECB’s policy-setting team will lose what’s left of its market
credibility. The real fear is that the cuts, or whatever, do not go deep
enough. If that’s the case, the dollar’s strength that the market has
been pricing in since the last ECB meeting will be given up. In addition
to using conventional interest rate tools, options include long-term
loans to banks, and purchases of asset-backed securities.The EUR initially lost ground early Monday on the back of strong gains
for the antiausterity parties; however, equities rallied to heights not
seen since 2008. Obviously, thin holiday conditions played a part, but
so too do limited volumes. The 18-member single currency remains
precariously perched ahead of the presumed option barriers and
psychological support at €1.3600 (€300M), 15, 20. More are seen above
€1.3650 (€350M). Stop-losses are supposedly large sub-€1.3600 and
€1.3550. On the crosses, the EUR has been underperforming and this
vulnerability could garner further support for the currency. With both
London and New York out today, the market may not have the will to
entertain much interest. Expect forex market action to pick up tomorrow.
newdigital, 2014.05.25 17:20
1.3635 support level was broken so the next nearest support level is 1.3615.
People who created sell stop pending order at 1.3635 - they are having about 20 pips in profit for equity open trades.
newdigital, 2014.05.28 06:13
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Selloff Expected to Resume
is aiming to move lower after taking out the bottom of a Rising Wedge
chart formation carved out over the past six months. Near-term support
is now at 1.3598, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this
barrier targets the February 3 low at 1.3476. Resistance is at 1.3673,
the 61.8% level, with a turn above aiming for the Wedge bottom at
We entered short EURUSD at 1.3654 in line with our long-term fundamental outlook.
The initial target is 1.3598. A stop-loss is set to activate on a daily
close above 1.3710. We will book profit on half of the trade and trail
the stop to breakeven once the first objective is hit.
newdigital, 2014.05.28 11:40
EUR/USD remains capped by 200-day SMA
made another recovery attempt at the beginning of the European session
and retested daily highs, but it was once again capped by the 1.3635/40
area, leaving the euro vulnerable near 2-month lows.The EUR/USD
found resistance at a high 1.3637 and slid to fresh daily lows at 1.3624
in recent dealings. The EUR/USD however, continues to consolidate in a
narrow range Wednesday, showing lack of determination to extend a move
either side of the board, as investors await German unemployment figures
and Eurozone confidence data.EUR/USD vulnerable ahead of ECB decision next weekThe
EUR/USD remains vulnerable, having hit a 2 ½-month low of 1.3611
Tuesday. The shared currency has been under broad pressure lately after Draghi
said the bank was comfortable with ease further next month. However,
this has been largely priced in, leaving room for disappointment when
the ECB meets next week.EUR/USD technical levelsAt
time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3630, virtually unchanged
on the day, with immediate resistances seen at 1.3637 (May 28
high/200-day SMA), 1.3668 (May 27 high/10-day SMA) and 1.3687 (May 22
high) ahead of 1.3700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.3624 (May 28 low), 1.3611 (May 27 low) and 1.3600 (psychological level).
newdigital, 2014.05.28 15:32
2014-05-28 12:55 GMT (or 14:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Redbook index]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Redbook index = The Johnson Redbook Index, released by Redbook Research Inc.,
is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a
sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about
9.000 stores. By dollar value, the index represents over 80% of the
equivalent "official" retail sales series collected and published by the
US Department of Commerce.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.05.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 21 pips price movement by USD - Redbook index news event
newdigital, 2014.05.29 08:02
EUR/USD looks to regain 1.3600
The euro is now attempting a bounce off the 1.3590 area, lifting the EUR/USD to the vicinity of 1.3600 the figure.EUR/USD hinges on US docketThe
absence of data releases or events in the euro area on Friday
will prompt EUR traders to look for catalyst the other side of the
Atlantic: Q1 GDP, Initial Claims and Pending Home Sales all due
tomorrow while PCE, the Reuters/Michigan index speeches by Fed’s Lacker,
Williams and Plosser due on Friday. In the view of Camilla Sutton,
Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “the short-term technicals are
bearish… all studies are warning of potential downside risk; as spot
trends lower and breaks to new multi-month lows and below the 200-day
MA. For near term traders we favour short EUR positions; particularly as
with the RSI at just 38 there is still plenty of downside room before
the currency reaches oversold levels. Support lies at 1.3520”.