A-B-C-D Trade - page 43
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Attached is a pic of 3 pairs.
From left to right: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and EUR/USD.
We show both the Asian and European sessions on a 15-minute basis.
During Asian, and as mentioned the previous day, we watched as the voting for party lead for Prime Minister was being conducted.
Whipsaw action during Asian with USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, which were trading in the same direction (in tandem). Therefore, we can say that the Yen was the dominant pair during Asian.
Once the European session took hold, the Euro lead the way. It decoupled EUR/JPY from USD/JPY. Thus, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD traded in tandem.
The rumor of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the U.S. caused speculative positions LONG (up) EUR/USD. When it dragged EUR/JPY up, this in turn sent USD/JPY down below the 15-year low hit during Asian.
Chart 2 illustrates a tight ABC had the FE 100 = 82.95. Pair probed slightly below that to 82.92. When we apply the fib retracement tool to:
Low = 08:30 83.07
High = 12:30 83.46
138.2% = 82.92
Probe to 82.92 was so quick that some brokers unlikely recognized it. Both prices were respected by market action.
*Remember that the first half of the U.S. session overlaps the 2nd half of the European session. With our time_modified2 indicator, the blue colored session includes the first half of the U.S. session.
EUR/USD - plot ABC from top point down. Potential profit taking end U.S. session. It's a small ABC, now just hit FE 100 1.2999.
Also retracement fibs from bottom to top>
23.6% = 1.2986
38.2% = 1.2956
50% = 1.2931
Here's 15-min chart monitoring potential retrace of EUR/USD.
Entry 1.2998
Target 38.2% 1.2956 + spread & cushion = 1.2959
Fibo fan also in the attached chart.
Finger on button in case manual exit ahead of 38.2% fib
EUR/USD testing FE 127 1.2992.
We're monitoring EUR/JPY as it is test pivot 107.97.
From about 20:15, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY started to move in tandem downward. This made EUR/USD fluctuate sideways.
Since New York has closed, we have less volume and need to get ready to pull trade on EUR/USD.
To reduce our risk, due to lower volume, we exited half of our position at 1.2993. Pair now at 1.2990.
USD/JPY is on a slight uptick, which is good for out position.
Finger on button.
Exited balance at 1.2986.
First half of lots = + 3 net pips
Second half = + 10 net pips
Don't want to go into Asian, especially with recent whipsaw due to elections.
Attached is 5-min EUR/USD trigger chart, with ABC. We misspoke on the FE 127 and it is actually 1.2994.
We exited 2nd half of lots at 22:01 GMT, at 1.2986, just above the FE 161.8 1.2985. It did not stay at 1.2985 very long, perhaps 15 seconds.
Edit: forgot to mention that 1.2985 is also the 23.6% retrace fib from Low to High, which was mentioned as a fib pull (Euro Low & US High).
Stop-loss = just above 5-min pivot 1.3012 + spread/cushion = 1.3015 = 16 pips risk.
Original risk/reward = 16/42
Risk/reward to 1.2985 fib = 16/14
Following activity into the Asian session, we see that it turned out to be a good decision to exit our sell trade. We don't want to walk into a situation where we can't read the market.
The attached 5-min EUR/USD has:
Retracement fib pull"
Asian session low = 00:05 1.2990
High = 00:25 1.3022
Fibo fan pointing down:
High = 16:45 1.3033
Low = 23:05 1.2987
The Low of fibo fan was adjusted after pair set the high of 1.3033. We want the 78.6% to be near or at the high price.
Fibo fan pointing up:
Low = 22:00 1.2983
High 16:45 1.3033
It is clear that, at this time 01:00, the fibo fans and retracement fibs are good.
We'll use these support & resistance levels for any trades where we just try to capture a few pips. Remember, just because a trade was a small amount of pips, it doesn't mea the percentage of account was inadequate. Use the scaling calculator from previous post (I believe it is on page 10).
We'll also keep an eye on resistance.
Look like jitters or actual intervention with Yen (to weaken).
Caution.