USD/JPY Forecast Dec 29-Jan. 3, 2016 - General

thenews 2014.12.28 19:40 #401

USD/JPY Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 3

The Japanese yen continues to struggle around the 120 line, as USD/JPY gained about 80 points last week. There are no Japanese events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

In Japan, inflation remains a major problem as inflation indicators continued to edge lower in November. As well, consumer spending reports were weak. Over in the US, In the US, Final GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of 5% annualized growth. Unemployment Claims looked sharp, but durable goods orders and housing data was rather weak.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

124.16 marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.

122.19 remains a strong resistance line which has held firm since July 2007. The next resistance line is 121.39.

119.88 started the week as a weak resistance line but switched to a support role following gains by the pair. It is a weak line and could face pressure early in the week.

117.94 has strengthened in support as the pair moved to higher levels. The next support level is at 116.82.

114.65 has remained intact since December 2007, when the yen posted a strong rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line.

113.79 is the final support level for now. It has held firm since early November.

I am neutral on USD/JPY

Trading will be light between Christmas and New Year’s, so we’re unlikely to see any significant movement during the week. The US dollar has enjoyed some recent momentum, so we may see the US dollar post slight gains.

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Unemployment Rate - Australia Average True Range - Relative Strength Index -

thenews 2014.12.30 12:39 #402

USD/JPY drops on year-end profit-taking

The U.S. dollar dropped against the yen on Tuesday, pulling away from close to three-week highs as traders locked in profits from the greenback's recent rally most other major currencies.

Trading volumes were expected to remain light ahead of the New Year's holiday.

USD/JPY hit 119.19 during European early afternoon trade, the pair's lowest since December 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 119.51, retreating 0.94%.

The pair was likely to find support at 118.23, the low of December 18 and resistance at 120.83, the high of December 23.

The dollar remained broadly supported after final data last week showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June.

The strong data fuelled further optimism over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and added to expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year.

Separately, markets were jittery after Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said on Monday that he will recommend parliamentary elections are held on January 25, almost 18 months before his coalition's term was due to end.

The announcement came as Samaras failed in his third attempt to persuade lawmakers to back his candidate for head of state, forcing the legislature’s dissolution.

The yen was also higher against the euro, with EUR/JPY declining 0.98% to 145.21.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on consumer confidence.

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thenews 2015.01.04 19:31 #403

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 5-9 2015

The Japanese yen showed some strength early in the week but could not consolidate these gains. USD/JPY closed the week at unchanged at 120.42. There are only four events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese markets enjoyed an extended break, taking off three days last week. There were no Japanese releases last week. In the US, key data was on the weak side, as Unemployment claims climbed higher and the ISM Manufacturing PMI softened.

Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:35. The index continues to point slightly above the 50-point level, which indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. The November reading came in at 52.0 points, almost matching the forecast of 52.0. No major change is expected in the December release.
Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. Monetary Base has been fairly steady in recent releases, posting a reading of 36.7 % in November. This was slightly higher than the estimate of 34.3%. The forecast for the December release stands at 34.3%.
10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The yield on 10-year bonds remains close to 0.50%, with a yield of 0.47% in the previous release. Little change is expected at the January auction.
Leading Indicators: Friday, 3:45. This index is made up of 11 indicators, but is a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The October reading came in at 104.0%, almost matching the estimate. The forecast for the December reading stands at 104.9%.

* All times are GMT

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PMI Services - European Purchasing Managers Index - Average True Range -

thenews 2015.01.11 12:54 #404

arge in a high speed while screaming at the top of my lungs!

The dollar fell against the yen on Friday after the latest U.S. jobs report showed that average earnings fell last month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could keep rates on hold for longer.

The U.S. economy added 252,000 jobs in December the Labor Department said, more than the 240,000 forecast by economists. The unemployment rate ticked down to a six-and-a-half year low 5.6% from 5.8% in November. Economists had forecast a decline to 5.7%.

However, the report also showed that average earnings fell by 0.2% in December, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase and were up by just 1.7% from a year earlier.

The drop in average earnings prompted investors to take profits in the dollar, as markets pushed back expectations for the first hike in U.S. interest rates to late-2015 from mid-2015 before the report.

Following an initial move higher the dollar fell against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.99% to 118.46 late Friday. The pair ended the week down 1.6%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.39% to 92.18 late Friday, off the 12-year peaks of 92.76 reached in the previous session. The index still notched up a weekly gain, supported by weakness in the euro.

The euro ended the week at more than two-month lows against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.57% to 140.32 in late trade, the weakest since October 31.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that industrial output fell in both Germany and France in November, while German exports also fell. The weak data fuelled speculation that the European Central Bank will embark on full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next meeting on January 22.

My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 41