A-B-C-D Trade - page 249
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12:30 U.S. NFP missed projections and Unemployment was better than estimated. Equities down and some flight to safety into treasuries, USD, etc.
Greek confidence vote might result in P.M. not surviving. IMF asked to monitor Italy, reportedly by Italian government, in order provide more confidence to markets. Link to article below. G-20 summit continues.
Same split-screen with 3 charts, after U.S. data.
The 15-min shows 13:00 candle breaking support of Asian Low, which is about same as MML 4/8th. Price currently at horizontal 61.8% retrace fib.
Lower left 4-hour GannBox chart provides look at S&R range of pair, and 4 pivots/opportunities.
Right side has PSQ9, fib channel, and yellow horizontal fibs. After post-NFP bounce off Moon 0-degree, current price at FC 31.4 and 50% retrace fib.
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/05/world/europe/italy-agrees-to-imf-oversight.html
As with other such plots, we have to check how conforming the price action relates to our current plot. We check other plot points regularly.
Here we have the EUR/USD daily chart. We moved the Standard Deviation Channel plot to a low-to-low of May 23rd and Oct 4th (marked by "X").
Another confirmation tool is the horizontal fib plot:
High = May 4th 1.49388 Low = Sept 19th 1.35080
The check marks are the confirmation of plot, by price action/candles.
1) The hit to the SDC's upper channel on Oct 27th was also at the 50% retrace fib 1.42234. RSI(4) at close of candle registered 88 in overbought.
2) The Nov 1st hit to SDC's mid-channel is a "reversion to the mean" price/level.
Directional tighter plot (not shown):
Low = Oct 4th 1.31443 High = Oct 17th 1.39132
Top was to the 138.2 extension. Mean was the 38.2 fib.
Look to left and we can see hit to mean agree with horizontal support in previous days.
****
It takes practice, which means you have to exert some effort. If you listen to people that call this hindsight or tricky, you're closing an important door.
Basic plotting of fibs are tricky if you let it be tricky. You are thus a self-defeatist.
Support and resistance, as a whole, is very different from the usual momentum indicators and techniques that deploy them.
Some traders are so entrenched in them, that they scoff at S&R. That's fine, to each and their own.
This thread is in the tutorial section for a purpose. You want to learn, you have some material here. You want to scoff, just keep it out of this thread.
Egotists that call this material hindsight therefore would consider textbooks hindsight.
This thread is NOT a vehicle for a free live trade signal. Go to the journal section to try to find that product.
This thread is also NOT in the trade system section. This means we're encouraging you to build your own, perhaps using one or more tools found here that you end up liking and mastering.
It generally does not fit for short-cut artists. Nor for those looking for the Holy Grail indicators or EAs.
It also is opposite behavior compared to those that collect every indicator and system under the sun. In other words, learn how to trade.
Traders using S&R are often exiting with profit when trend traders are entering with their lagging tools.
Glorified moving averages cross-overs and other cross-over indicators are still coming out, with more filters, after at least 20 years of failure. Lagging trend systems will get chopped up over a large sample size.
They are not totally useless, and can be used as a trigger on shorter time-frames. This is just our opinion of course.
Moreover, SOME people that want to sell you something, such as a forex trading course for several thousand dollars, may show prospective students a large trend with a cross-over. "See how easy it is!?" This is the bait.
Not all forex courses do that, and some are probably very good. Just check it out first.
US30 4-hour with GannBox_144 settings:
Start price =Oct 4th 08:00 low 10,481
Prices (Height) = 4500
Times (Width) = 360
Red diagonal line is the key 1/1 angle
Price walked up that line until Nov 1st 00:00 candle breach. This also ducked under the horizontal yellow 1/3rd line.
Support came at the horizontal blue 36 line, which is the 2/8th, during Nov 1st 16:00 period. Move = 300 pips.
Same chart last posted, with Standard Deviation Channel.
To get interior fibs, take the fib channel (FC) tool and plot from SDC's upper channel (A) to mid-channel (B).
Then drag the channel's upper line (A) by its middle dot, until the 2nd line (B) is aligned with the SDC's upper channel.
The attached is a zoom-in on the bounce off the SDC's mid-channel (mean) on Nov 1st.
Exit at the FC 61.8 on Nov 3rd.
Horizontal fibs (not shown) High = Oct 27th 1.42464 Low = Nov 1st 1.36000
The FC 61.8 exit point is also the horizontal 38.2% fib of this plot.
Gain about 170 pips.
Bearish tone and pressure on Euro since session opened 07:00. Asian low broken with plenty of room to downside.
EUR/USD bounced off red 1/1 angle on daily GannBox plot. This also happens to be Moon 135-degree.
1.3607 is previous low and 1.3594 box 1/3rd level.
Attached EUR/USD 15-min with session colors and MML, plots fib
22:30 High 1.3828 and Asian Low 1.3751
Price broke Asian Low during 07:15 candle period, and made a 161.8 extension to the 1/8th MML 1.3702 during 08:30. This also near round number 1.3700.
That's about net 40 pips. S/L includes placement above pivot high of 06:30 1.3774. R/R 40/25 and 1.6:1 ratio.
Asian breakout examples at beginning of this thread.
We also labeled economic data releases at 10:00 and 11:00. Both were negative to Euro, BUT pair rose due to another factor.
Rumors circulated that the Italian P.M. is due to resign today.
***
Previously posted GannBox_144 plot, saw price bounce off key diagonal red 1/1 angle line, back up to significant blue horizontal 72 (50% of box) level.
1-hour PSQ9 chart (not shown) had its Moon 135 at support 08:00 candle. Using the fib channel provided interior fibs between Moon levels and exit options for both directions.
Previously mentioned wide horizontal had its 138.2 at 08:00 low.
High = 1.4171 Low = 1.3827
1-hour SDC plot high-to-high: Nov 4th 12:00 and Nov 7th 14:00
Confirmation Nov 7th 20:00 high at upper channel.
Horizontal fib plot: Low = 7th 17:00 1.37255 High = 7th 20:00 1.37836 Low
Trade opportunity: BUY at horizontal 78.6% and SDC's mid-channel 1.37367 level.
Exit options include Moon 0-degree, same as horizontal 23.6 = 1.37699
S/L just below LOW of 1.37255 + cushion = 1.37215
Reward = 30
Risk = 15
R/R ratio = 2:1
Subsequent to last post, EUR/USD bounced off lower SDC channel line (and near Low 1.37255) and back up to upper channel line, where it was met by the Asian High (1.37695) and Moon 0-degree.
Same chart and Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) plot. As price bounced off the mid-channel 08:00, and stalled at the upper channel, we needed guidance for territory above.
This chart has added fib channel (FC) aligned to SDC's mid-channel pulling up to it upper channel.
The 14:00/15:00 high hit the FC 161.8 extension, which also intersected the Moon 45-degree.
Bounce down is substantial, moving as far as the next level below, Moon 0-degree thus far. This is also approximately a 61.8% horizontal retrace. This diagonal level near FC 31.4, which had been previous S&R. Distance between Moon lines is 60 pips.