A-B-C-D Trade - page 254
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And here's ERU/USD with same MML on 15-min. The lower time-frame produces more lines (smaller intervals).
The yellow check make labels Nov 17th high at the 7/8th MML. The pair just made a 1st revisit during 07:45 period. Bounce down thus far is to the 4/8th MML.
We can set automatic sell on this set-up at the 2/8th MML. The fib channel plot measures the -25 S/L level based on using 2-level interval, from 4/8th to 2/8th.
Labels are:
S/L = 1.35799 (-25)
Entry = 1.35508 (at 2/8th) minus cushion = 1.35458
TP = 1.34877 (at 1/8th) plus spread and cushion = 1.34937
Risk = 35 Reward = 52 ratio = 1.5:1
Currently price at 1.35095, and can move S/L to Break-Even.
****
Other arrows point to double top and double bottom.
Here is the 1-hour PSQ9, plot from Moon 180 to Moon 90.
The SELL point is at the FC 31.4, which also acted as resistance at last peak Nov 17th 15:00.
TP is just above the horizontal Mars 0-dergree
Continuance of our plot. SELL Entry point is SDC mid-channel.
This example has stopped-out at break-even.
Here's a link to a good article on Spain's real estate bubble burst. They have already suffered about 30% decline, with another 15-20% forthcoming.
Unemployment has tripled form 2009 to 22%.
‘Unsellable’ Real Estate Threatens Spanish Banks - Bloomberg
Short off Mars 90-degree, near 161.8 using horizontal plot 1.34202 and 1.35322.
Just took profit at 138.2 1.35748
Quick net 14 pip bounce trade
Here are a couple of charts that compare systems built to do well during volatile periods.
Results were manually back tested and consist of support and resistance technique.
Chart 1 is Monthly return performance is based on a R/R of 1.5:1 and risk per trade of 2%. The percentage of return is seen on the left hand border.
That return chart (on top) is compared to the VIX, a gauge of volatility.
Chart 2 also uses S&R and tracked ROI through Oct. This one uses a R/R of 1.2:1 and 1.5% risk.
We can clearly see volatility spike up in August, when S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating. It stayed above 25 to the present.
Our message is to seek to develop techniques/systems with S&R, securing profit during the choppy periods, which actually is the higher probability.
Attached is a 30-min USD/CAD chart, with MurreyMath1.0.
Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) low-to-low plot Nov 13th low to Nov 16th low.
Fib channel (FC) aligned to SDC's upper and mid-channel, pointing down with the extension levels.
Th 1st hit to the lower channel occurred on Nov 17th 05:30, and rose back up to the 31.4. S/L just below the 131.4. Reward/Risk = 2:1.
The attached chart focuses on the 2nd hit to the lower channel line. We placed price labels for entry at channel, S/L at 131.4 and TP at 31.4. These are identical to the 1st hit.
The 7/8th MML acted as support at entry, and the +1/8th as resistance near TP.
If a trader takes R/R 2:1 on 10 trades per month, and wins 50%, the monthly return is 10% of account balance, based on 2% risk on scaled number of lots traded.
We try to use obvious plot for the SDC. The market will also react better to its S&R. Looking at the 4-hour may give you a better view of pivots.
Subsequent to this example, price hit the FC 200 on Friday (just above 6/8th MML), and bounced up to the lower SDC channel.
This chart is an OS trade set-up on Nov 14th. SDC on 4-hour plot low-to-high:
Oct 27th 16:00 low to Nov 10th 04:00 high.
The fib channel aligned from mid to lower channel, and then moved down one level. The FC's upper channel (B) should be aligned to the SDC's lower channel.
This will result in:
Entry = -25
S/L = -40
TP1 = 31.4 and R/R 2.5:1
TP2 = 61.8 and R/R 4.3:1
Note entry was at open of new week, when price gapped a little down. Waiting for the 2nd candle to open for entry can also considered, as a precaution, as long as price remained at/near -25 level.