A-B-C-D Trade - page 20
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Session low 1.2207 being tested
FE 100 = 1.2177
FE 127 = 1.2164
FE 161.8 = 1.2147
Hourly low = 1.2162 from 07:00 GMT Asian.
Recapping Asian and European sessions.
Asian
U.S. low = 1.2207
Slow probably due to China on 3-day holiday.
False breakout a5 01:40 GMT to 1.2195
Readjusted to form Point C.
Red fibs:
A = 1.2232
B =1.2195
C = 1.2226
FE 161.8 = 1.2166 (hit 1.2168)
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European
Asian high = 1.2233
Move-in-progress (black fibs)
A = 1.2168
B = 1.2215
C =1.2174
FE 100 = 1.2222
FE 161.8 = 1.2251
Next wave/ABC (blue fibs):
A = 1.2174
B = 1.2276
C = 1.2243
FE 100 = 1.2346 (hit and consolidation area now)
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Draw these ABCs yourself and get used to plotting in a moving market.
Here is the retracement fib pull using:
May 10th High 1.3094
June 7th low 1.1876
38.2% retrace fib = 1.2341 (now)
The last push up broke a trend line.
Now, use the Fibonacci Channel tool for diagonal fibs. Will post this later.
This provides some guidance with major S&R going forward.
Slew of economic data out of UK and EU had seen traders position EUR/USD lower ahead of European open.
Pair found support at 1.2274, which is the 50% fib we pulled on the daily chart. See recent post.
This support is also the 38.2 fi from the large up move from yesterday's European session.
Move bounced off support to retrace 38.2%.
The attached 5-min has fibo fans up, down, horizontal fibs, and a large ABC that will have to be cut down when we get more pivots.
The new ABC pull from 5-min had the FE 100(1.2270) in same area as Asian low...thus no trade and wait for another pivot to establish point C.
A = 1.2298
B = 1.2267
C = 1.2284
FE 100 = 1.2253
FE 127 = 1.2245
FE 151.8 = 1.2234
Testing B now.
Pair failed to confirm beyond FE 61.8 in backdrop of some US data.
Aforementioned support on daily chart is significant, as well as the 38.2% retrace fib of last bearish spike, where it current sits now
Pair failed to confirm beyond FE 61.8 in backdrop of some US data.Aforementioned support on daily chart is significant, as well as the 38.2% retrace fib of last bearish spike, where it current sits now
Sorry, meant to say ".....as well as the 38.2% of yesterday's European move up.
If we draw an ABC from the new low established this session, it clearly shows pair hitting the FE 100 of 1.2326 (also the 61.8 retrace fib from Asian spike down) and bounce back to the 38.2% of Asian spike.
We kept our fibo fan from European open low price of 1.2273 to 38% retrace. The 50% and 61.8% acting as S&R.
The downward fibo fan was plotted per last attached chart:
High of June 15th 20:00 price of 1.2348
Low of Euro opening price of 1.2273
The 78.6 fib provided resistance and 61.8 provides support.
Attached is a 15-min EUR/USD chart.
We plotted a retracement set of fibs from the late Asian session spike down.
High = 06:45 GMT price of 1.2353
Low = 08:00 GMT price of 1.2273
When there is a medium or large move like this, look for a retrace. If the move is very strong, it may only retrace 23.6%.
We use the indicator Multi-Time Frame RSI.
- The purple horizontal line is where this shows over-sold (below 30).
We wait for one more candle above 30 to close, and enter BUY on opening of next candle. In this case it's 1.2285 + 3-pip spread = 1.2288.
- Our stop-loss is tight, below the low of 1.2273 minus 1 pip cushion = 1.2272.
- We target profit at the 38.2% retrace fib of 1.2304 minus 1 pip for cushion = 1.2303.
Risk/Reward = 16/15
THe indicator Heiken Ashi Smoothed (HAS) candles assist us in not getting too jumpy.
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When we are proficient with fibs, we can also make bounce trades when a retracement hits a major fib, such as the 38>2, 50, and 61.8.
The chart has a down black arrow showing entry point after retrace to 38.2. Entry price 1.2293
Stop-loss above high of 1.2306 + 4 pips spread & cushion = 1.2310.
We target area just above low of 1.2273 + 4 pips = 1.2277. Following HAS candles and moving our stop-loss.
Risk/reward = 17/16
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The Fractals (hatch marks) are further confirmation of pivots.
Note, we cannot see the true wicks with the HAS candles.
Here is the retracement fib pull using:May 10th High 1.3094June 7th low 1.187638.2% retrace fib = 1.2341 (now)The last push up broke a trend line.Now, use the Fibonacci Channel tool for diagonal fibs. Will post this later.This provides some guidance with major S&R going forward.
Attached daily chart illustrates pull points for fib channel tool.
1) Drag from low of May 6th 1.2520 to June 7th low of 1.1876.
2) Click on one of those 2 points and the dots appear. Drag the extra 2nd dot to the high of May 21st 1.2672. (there is a middle dot between the pulls of 1, but that is used just to move the entire line)
We always look for compliance. In this case the price action/candles above respected the 61.8 diagonal fib as well as the Point 2 line
This sets areas for future pause, bounce, etc.
The purple line is the 50-period Moving Average. Recent action shows this acting as resistance. Past action acted as good S&R. Thus, we keep this in mind as we are near.
The blue line is the 200-period MA.