A-B-C-D Trade - page 135
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We made a couple of posts in the Gann Is The Mann thread, in the Indicator section.
EUR/USD Chart = GMT+1
Baja 30-min bearish divergence at Mar 22nd 10:30, with SELL entry 12:00 price of 1.4240. S/L 5 pips above pivot high of 1.4247 = 1.4252. Risk = 12 pips.
Attached 15-min trigger and fib plot chart shows swings and eventual 138.2 regular extension to 1.4152*.
The top was a 161.8 extension from plot using Mar 21st European Low-High. This plot also had its 78.6 as same price level as the 138.2 to downside that finished early Asian today*.
Attached daily chart (GMT+1) is the CFD for Gold, under symbol of XAU_USD.
We have 2 pairs of cycle lines plotted, to arrive at a "cluster", where 2 would occupy the same time.
The 2 highs are Dec 7th, 2010 and Jan 3rd, 2011.
The 2 lows are Dec 16th, 2010 and Jan 7th, 2011.
The very 1st interval for both plots was Jan 27th. That candle is marked with an "X" on the chart. We also have a BAJA divergence on the next day's candle, as can be seen on the RSI(4).
Using a 4-Hour EFT trigger, BUY entry effect at Jan 28th 16:00 price of $1326.
The fib plot is High = Jan 13th and Low = Jan 28th. This instrument went on to make a 161.8 extension on Mar 7th ($1445).
Notice the EFT was above the zero line while price was en route up. The RSI(4) however was declining, and actually registering bearish BAJA signals above the High.
Mar 24th EUR/USD comments.
After making a 200% extension from plot Mar 11 & 14th, pair bounced on 22nd and after Portuguese votes down austerity plan designed to avoid bailout, reversed further down to its 61.8 fib (using Mar 18th low). Its Prime Minister stepped down as promised.
The EU summit will take place Thurs-Fri, and is now seen as unable to quickly resolve some of the debt issues. The Portuguese will take about 2 months to form a new government.
Finland dissolved its parliament and won’t be able to make major decision until May.
Link:
/go?link=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit/portugal-government-collapse-complicates-eu-summit-idUSTRE72M8XF20110324?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
The tight ABC pointing down, plotted from yesterday’s Euro session swings, arrive at a FE 78.6 of 1.4075, where pair sits now
For major support, look at the daily with Gann_SQ9, per attached..
Here is a counter-trend trade on the CFD SPX500. The attached 30-min chart plots fibs from Low = Mar 23rd 14:00 1283.9 to High = Mar 23rd 19:00 1300.6. These were session low/high during U.S.
Retracement to the 38.2% fib occurred and it acted as support throughout the Asian session.
Breakout to the upside during European saw break of High and an extension to the 138.2 fib. A BAJA divergence registered on the Mar 24th 12:00 candle, the same candle.
Entry off of 15-min EFT trigger at 12:45 price of 1304.1. S/L above pivot high of 1307.4 + 1.0 spread/cushion = 1308.4, for 43-pip risk.
We can see subsequent pivot and extension to the FE 161.8 of 1297.6 for bottom for about 65 gross pips. Net Reward/Risk = 60/48 and 1.25:1.
If enter at break of Point B, Reward/Risk = 48/30 net and 1.6:1, based on S/L above Point C.
When we look at the 30-min or even the 1-hour candles, we can see the retracement halt at the tighter 61.8 fib (using 1294.1 low) and candle bodies closed there.
SPX500 resumed upward to make a hit to the 161.8 at 19:00 Mar 24th. The movement of this instrument was very concise and in accordance to Fibonacci ratios. Fibs work on all markets.
If the trader was not in on the BUY swing trade, he/she can take advantage of the understanding of market movement and where instrument is trading within that picture.
As a follow-up to last EUR/USD post, pair went one level further down to the FE 100 at end Asian Mar 24th. Here we also had a BAJA bullish divergence with the 0700 candle.
Entry via same 15-min EFT trigger for BUY, at 08:15 price 1.4073 + spread/cushion. Pair made an ABC before hitting the FE 100 of 1.4203 at 15:00, for +130 gross pips.
Pullback was to the FE 61.8, where it has consolidated in tight range since.
Fundamental explanation given was opposition party in Portugal's drama made statement in attempt to sooth debt crisis fears.
Also made 2 deposits in Gann Is The Mann thread.
News and/or speculation is that there may be a breach in Japan's #3
"The possible breach in the plant's Unit 3 might be a crack or a hole in the stainless steel chamber of the reactor core or in the spent fuel pool that's lined with several feet of reinforced concrete. The temperature and pressure inside the core, which holds the fuel rods, remained stable and was far lower than what would further melt the core."
yahoo news link:Breach suspected at troubled Japanese power plant - Yahoo! News
time of this yahoo article was around 15:00 GMT:
Radiation fears mount again in Japan after plant workers hurt - Yahoo! News
Being Friday, traders don't want to be caught long EUR/USD, in the event things get worse with this. Situation is bad, but from psychological perspective of traders' and herd mentality, there can be a big spike down on pair, and general USD strength. If trader is long, the Sunday open may move strongly against traders' position, out of his control
After yesterday's FE 100, pair formed an ABC to downside per attached. Break of Point B early Euro session, and just exceeded FE 161.8.
Tighter plot on 30-min: 06:30/09:00/10:00. This has FE 200 = 1.4067 (just hit during 16:30 candle).
Also need to add that social unrest that has spread to Syria, has just claimed 24 lives.
Jordon also has violence.
Egypt just outlawed protests. Yes, the "temporary" military rule, run by old friends of the old regime, has removed the very right Egypt and other countries are fighting for. And yes, the U.S. has supplied EGYPT with USD 1 billion in military aid annually. This aid remains intact.
Other recent news and dinner conversation include:
- NATO taking over the no-fly zone and will probably take over the entire "operation" in Libya.
- China again, increased bank reserve requirements.
- 6.8 earthquake in Burma.
- Canada votes no-confidence in Harper government, resulting in elections in May.
- The U.S. FED forced into more transparency, as a result of a law suit brought on by Bloomberg. Congress had previously refused to audit the FED. Some have called the FED a "Secret Society".
Rep Ron Paul, who heads the committee that overseas the FED, wrote a book entitled End The Fed (written prior to his appointment).
- Food prices returned to the heights last seen during the stock market peak around 2007, the 2nd bubble. The majority of the news media didn't initially refer to this issue as one reason for the Middle-East and North African protests.
We will soon incorporate more commodities, such as grains, into our examples. The price of corn has doubled in the last year.
The internet has allowed everyone the opportunity to view how things are outside of their immediate world. The so-called "have-nots" can now see what the "haves" have.
They may surmise that their government is milking whatever national resources they have, and not sharing it with the populous. This uprising may even transcend political and religious grouping.
Sure to be similar examples in history. Some will call it political instability. Others may call it over population. Some hope it is social maturity forthcoming.