GBPUSD news - page 88
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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Pair Capped By Strong Resistance
The UK calendar is pretty busy throughout next week. It starts on Monday with Halifax house prices for April, which are expected to decelerate from March levels.
On Tuesday, trade balance data are due for March, which will be eyed by investors as well.
Wednesday will bring industrial and manufacturing production figures for March. These usually spur some volatility on the GBP/USD pair, especially if they deviate from market expectations. Later in the day, The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's GDP estimate for April will be released.
The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, with all nine monetary policy committee members projected to vote in favor of this. The main rate should stay at 0.5%, while the annual QE amount will stay at £375 billion.
Furthermore on Thursday, the quarterly inflation report from the Bank will be published and should come under close scrutiny by investors. This report includes the BoE's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next two years. It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence interest rate decisions.
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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Pair Capped By Strong Resistance
he UK calendar is pretty busy throughout next week. It starts on Monday with Halifax house prices for April, which are expected to decelerate from March levels.
On Tuesday, trade balance data are due for March, which will be eyed by investors as well.
Wednesday will bring industrial and manufacturing production figures for March. These usually spur some volatility on the GBP/USD pair, especially if they deviate from market expectations. Later in the day, The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's GDP estimate for April will be released.
The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, with all nine monetary policy committee members projected to vote in favor of this. The main rate should stay at 0.5%, while the annual QE amount will stay at £375 billion.
Furthermore on Thursday, the quarterly inflation report from the Bank will be published and should come under close scrutiny by investors. This report includes the BoE's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next two years. It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence interest rate decisions.
read more
GBP/USD forecast for the week of May 9, 2016
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above to turn things back around and break below the 1.45 handle. We are still above the 1.44 level though, so at this point in time we believe that there is still support to deal with. If we do break below that area, it’s likely that we will try to reach down to the 1.41 level. As far as buying is concerned, we don’t have any interest in doing so from the longer-term charts at least.
GBP/USD: Pound Erase Moderate Gains, Extends Losing Streak
The British pound failed to keep its modest intraday profit against the greenback during the US trading session, heading for the fifth losing day in a row amid a light data session on Monday.
Earlier in the morning, the macro calendar unveiled UK housing data. The Halifax house price index fell 0.8% on the monthly basis in April, deteriorating from a revised 2.2% hike, while the gauge rose below the expectation at 9.2% year-to-year.
As for updates from the US, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) labor market condition index spurred only limited market reaction, with the index declining 0.9 points in April, after a drop of 2.1 points seen previously.
Therefore, the GBP/USD edged 0.12% down to $1.4407, slipping from $1.4479 seen during European market hours. Looking at the bigger picture, sterling hit its lowest point since April 22 at $1.4375, falling about three big figures from the four-month high at $1.4771 reached the previous week.
Apart from ongoing Brexit uncertainty, the pound was smashed by the strong resistance around the February highs above $1.4670 which might act as the first obstacle for any additional bullish attempt. However, anticipation for the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, meeting minutes and the inflation report all due on Thursday, could possibly limit trading activity during the first part of the week.
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UK Trade Deficit Narrows in March as Exports Increase
The total deficit in March was a less than expected £3.8 billion, narrowing from a revised £4.3 billion in February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in its latest report on trade.
The goods trade deficit shrank more than expected to £11.2 billion in March from a revised £11.4 billion in February, the ONS said.
The narrowing deficit on trade in goods was primarily due to a £400 million rise in exports to £23.7 billion, primarily of machinery and transport equipment and unspecified goods.
The trade deficit in the first quarter, according to data that better reflect underlying trends, was £13.3 billion, the highest since the first quarter of 2008. The deficit narrowed from a sharply revised £12.2 billion in the final three months of 2015.
The goods deficit with the EU in the first quarter of £23.5 billion was the widest ever, the ONS said, and the total trade deficit of £34.7 was also the highest on record.
The prospects for UK exports are being curtailed by the slowdown in the global economy, while imports may be influenced by subdued wage growth and the first increase in the number of people looking for work in March since the middle of last year.
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Preview: UK: Industrial & Manufacturing Production (Mar)
source
GBP/USD: Sterling Awaits Industrial Data Below $1.45
The pound ticked higher on Wednesday and was trading around $1.4460 during the London session, around 0.15% stronger on the day.
Later in the session, UK manufacturing and industrial output data are due for March and both should improve on a monthly basis. Positive figures might push the pound above the $1.45 mark.
"Expectations are pretty positive after a disappointing February, however given the disappointing reports yesterday (in Germany, France and Italy) it wouldn’t be too much of a shock if we got similar disappointments here too," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said on Wednesday.
The data will be followed by The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's GDP estimate for April.
Sterling will be most volatile on Thursday, when the Bank of England is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged and the central bank releases its quarterly Inflation Report.
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BoE Preview: Carney Set to Combat Brexit Agony as Inflation Seen Picking Up
As the UK is heading toward the EU referendum scheduled for June 23, the fresh macroeconomic forecast from the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to turn into the "No Brexit Fear" event, with the medium-term outlook for inflation potentially revised upward for the first time under Governor Mark Carney's command at the Bank. The short-term GDP outlook is expected to be revised down, mostly on the back of the ongoing nervousness and economic and political uncertainty ahead of the EU plebiscite.
It is a given that Carney will avoid any political interference or comments related to the referendum. Nevertheless, the vote in June and its outcome represent the biggest risk event this year, whether to the upside or downside.
While the outlook for economic growth is expected to be scaled down with Brexit being the major demon of a potential slowdown, inflation might be revised upwards. The oil price jump of more than 50% off its cyclical bottom in the middle of February, and sterling’s depreciation, are seen as the major upward drivers of inflation.
Looking at sterling from a broader perspective, the currency has lost some 6.2% since the beginning of this year and it is even lower when compared to last Inflation Report from February this year (see charts for details). This is going to feed into higher import prices in the year to come, even with a large degree of flexibility that floating exchange rates provide for economic entities.
All three Markit/CIPS PMI April surveys showed either inflationary pressures picking up, or deflationary pressures easing. The services PMI survey revealed, mainly due to an introduction of the National Living Wage, that the inflation rate sped up to a 27-month high in April, "with cost pressures also linked by firms to rising fuel prices and the impact of the weaker pound".
The estimates of the annual rate of UK CPI for this year range between 0.8% up to 1.8%.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Drops to $1.44 on Strengthening Greenback
The US dollar pushed the pair lower on Friday and cable was seen declining toward the $1.44 mark during the London session, losing 0.3% on the day.
Major US data are due later in the session, with retail sales for April expected to swell noticeably, which might support the greenback on currency markets. The data will be followed by PPI indices, also for April, and an improvement is expected here as well.
In the previous session, the Bank of England (BoE), as widely expected, left monetary policy unchanged (the rate stayed at 0.5% and the QE amount remained at £375 billion) on Thursday. All nine monetary policy committee members voted in favor of unchanged monetary policy.
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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: British Macro Data to Set Cable's Direction
A raft of UK data will be released on Tuesday, including inflation figures and the Producer Price Index, with the CPI figures expected to tick a notch lower which may cause the pound to be sold-off.
Labor market figures are due on Wednesday, with the jobless rate projected to stay at 5.1% in March. Average weekly earnings will be under close scrutiny.
The final data for the week will be released on Thursday. Retail sales for April are expected to swell notably month-on-month, but should moderate slightly on a yearly basis. Mixed data might cause some choppy trading.
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