USDCAD news - page 12
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USD/CAD Forecast May 4-8
The Canadian dollar showed some strength during the week breaking below the 1.20 level for the first time since mid-January. However, the loonie failed to consolidate at these levels and posted very slight gains on the week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2136. This week’s major highlights are Building Permits and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
US numbers disappointed last week, as Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing PMI reports fell short of expectations. In Canada, GDP came in at a flat 0.0%, slightly better than expected.
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Canadian PMI Surprises with Sudden Expansion
Canada's Ivey PMI surged more than expected on Wednesday, giving a positive spin to April.
The gauge reached 58.2, where a reading above 50 indicates an expansion in purchasing activity. Analysts had estimated to see 49.2 during the fourth month of the year. In March, the index was at 47.9. The freshly released data also beat last year’s measure of 54.1.
The PMI, which is released by the Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University, measures monthly changes in economic activity based on a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada.
It includes the public and private sectors and consists of five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
"The Employment Index for April 2015 was 50.3, the Inventories Index was 53.2, the Supplier Deliveries Index was 46.2 and the Prices Index was 57.8," the release said.
Traders are focusing their attention primarily on Canada’s employment data this week, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. The figures are estimated to be flat, with the number of jobs falling 5,000 and unemployment rate rising to 6.9%.
"New budgets for fiscal 2015/16 came into effect in April, and spending restraint means that the public sector has the potential to be a drag, not only in next week’s release, but also in ones further out. The pain from budget cutbacks in the energy sector should also intensify in upcoming readings on the labor market, with oil services likely to be hardest hit," CIBC World Markets economist Nick Exarhos said in a research note.
There is also a building permits release on Thursday and housing starts on Friday.
source
Canadian building permits jump 11.6% in March
The number of new building permits issued in Canada rose much more than expected in March, easing concerns over the health of the country’s real estate sector, official data showed on Thursday.
In a report, Statistic Canada said the number of new building permits issued rose by a seasonally adjusted 11.6% in March, easily surpassing forecasts for a gain of 2.5%.
New building permits issued in February was revised to a decline of 0.3% from a previously reported fall of 0.9%.
Higher construction intentions for non-residential buildings in British Columbia and Alberta and for multi-family dwellings in Ontario and British Columbia were responsible for much of the advance at the national level.
USD/CAD was trading at 1.2088 following the release of the data from around 1.2077 before.
source
April 2015 Canadian housing starts 181.8 vs 182.0k exp
Canadian housing starts data details 8 May 2015
More or less bang on the money and worth a 7 pip drop in USDCAD to 1.2096
USDCAD finds support and stops noted nearby
Despite a steadier oil price after yesterday's losses we've seen USDCAD make good use of the USD buying this morningHigh so far 1.2028 which equals Wednesday's high as offers at 1.2030 continue to hold
Talk on the street now though of stop-loss buying to be triggered if the level breaks
Canadian April existing home sales +2.3% vs +4.1% prior
Highlights of the April existing home sales report:
If there was a 'panic gauge' for Canadian housing, on a scale of 1-10, it would be at about a 6 right now. Despite the rout in oil prices, there just isn't that much concern. It could be after so many false prophecies of door, that the media and consumers just aren't that interested.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 18, 2015
The USD/CAD pair broke down during the week, breaking below 1.20 for the third week in a row. However, we ended up finding enough support to turn things back around again as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level looks to be supportive. However, you have to look at the daily charts to recognize that there is still a significant amount of selling pressure as we formed a hammer on Friday. Because of this, we feel this market actually goes lower and as a result a break of the bottom of the candle for this last week has us aiming for the 1.18 level.
source
USD/CAD Probes Support; EUR/USD Back To The Drawing Board – BofA Merrill
Dollar/CAD and also EUR/USD experienced interesting technical moves in the past week. What does the road ahead have for them?
The team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch provides some insight:
Here is their view :
USD/CAD is testing pivotal long-term support at the 1.1909/1.1915 area, notes Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“While this is a very late stage decline, this support zone is unlikely to hold for long, given the weakened state of the USD,” BofA argues.
“Indeed, a break below 1.1909 clears the way for a test of the 200d at 1.1764 before renewed base,” BofA projects.
Turning to EUR/USD, BofA thinks that it’s time to get back to the drawing board with fresh thoughts after exiting its short EUR/USD on the overnight push above 1.1392.
“This break points to a larger upward correction than anticipated and further gains for a test of 1.1534/1.1538 resistance (Feb-03 high and 10m trendline),” BofA argues.
“While this may be a near-term sticking point, absent a break below 1.1156 (old channel resistance, now support), stay bullish for a push towards 1.1675/1.1811, potentially the 200d at 1.1961 before renewed signs of stalling,” BofA advises.
“Back below 1.1156 says the correction is over,” BofA adds.
March 2015 Canadian wholesale trade sales 0.8% vs 0.9% exp m/m
March 2015 Canadian wholesale trade sales data report 20 May 2015
An increase in building and material and supplies helped halt a two month decline in the numbers. Sales were up in 5/7 categories
USDCAD drops around 20 pips to 1.2194 on the better news
Canadian March retail sales +0.7% vs +0.3% m/m expected
Highlights of the Canadian March retail sales report:
Given the revisions, this is very close to expected in ex-autos and slightly stronger on the headline. At the moment, USD/CAD is more focused on slightly lower CPI numbers but the US dollar is stronger across the board.