AUD/USD news - page 4

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: December 23 - 27

The Australian dollar inched higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, but the Aussie held near a three-and-a-half year low after the Federal Reserve said it will begin scaling back its stimulus program next month.

AUD/USD clawed back from 0.8818 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since August 25, 2010, to subsequently consolidate at 0.8923 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.64% on the day but 0.5% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8818, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 0.8957, the high from December 17.

Demand for the greenback remained supported after the Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its USD85 billion-a-month bond buying program by USD10 billion in January, amid indications of an improving U.S. economy.

The U.S. central bank reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the Fed has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.

On Friday, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded by 4.1% in the third quarter, well above initial estimates for 3.6% growth, adding to signs that the economic recovery is deepening.

The Aussie remained under pressure after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens repeated the bank's recent message that a currency above USD0.90 is not suitable for the economy.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: December 30 - January 3

The Australian dollar slumped to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as indications of an improving U.S. economy fuelled expectations of a further reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus.

AUD/USD fell to 0.8862 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since December 20, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8869 by close of trade, down 0.3% for the day and 0.6% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find short-term support at 0.8854, the low from December 20 and resistance at 0.8927, Friday’s high.

Trading volumes remained limited as many investors already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market.

Demand for the greenback remained supported amid expectations of further stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank will start reducing its bond-buying stimulus program by USD10 billion a month in January, amid indications of an improving U.S. economy.

Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, as the U.S. recovery deepens.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits declined by 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 338,000 last week. Analysts were expecting U.S. jobless claims to fall by 35,000 to 345,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 380,000.

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AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 6-10

AUD/USD started off the new year on a positive note, gaining close to a cent last week. The pair closed the week at 0.8944. There are three key events this week – Trade Balance, Retail Sales and Building Approvals. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The US bounced posted strong Unemployment Claims and Fed chair Bernard Bernanke stated that the economy continues to recover. This gave risk takers more confidence to move away from the safe-haven greenback and the riskier Aussie showed gains.

  1. AIG Services Index: Sunday, 22:30. The index has not been above the 50-point level since September 2011, indicating ongoing contraction in the services sector. However, we are seeing improvement, and the indicator rose to 48.9 points in November. Will the index cross above the key 50 line in the upcoming release?
  2. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the first key event of the week. Trade Balance is directly linked to currency demand, as foreigners need to purchase Australian dollars in order to buy the country’s exports. Australia continues to post monthly trade deficits, and the November figure of -0.53 billion dollars was much higher than the estimate of -0.38 billion. The markets are expecting an improvement in December, with the estimate standing at -0.30 billion.
  3. AIG Construction Index: Tuesday, 22:30. The index continues to climb higher and November’s reading reached an impressive 55.2 points. Will the upward trend continue in December?
  4. Building Approvals: Thursday, 00:30. Building Approvals tends to show sharp movement, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. After a sparkling 14.4% gain in October, the indicator slumped in November, posting a decline of 1.8%. However, this was well above the estimate of -4.3%. The markets are expecting another decline in the upcoming release, with an estimate of -0.9%.
  5. Retail Sales: Thursday, 00:30. Retail Sales is a market-mover, so analysts will be carefully monitoring this key consumer spending event. The indicator posted a gain of 0.5% in December, edging above the estimate of 0.4%. The estimate for December stands at 0.5%.
  6. Chinese CPI: Thursday, 1:30. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese events such as CPI, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Chinese CPI has not been below the 3% level since September, but the markets are expecting a weaker figure in December, with the estimate standing at 2.7%.
  7. HIA New Home Sales: Friday, Tentative. This indicator tends to show strong fluctuations, and posted a decline of 3.8% in November after two straight gains. The markets will be hoping for a turnaround in the December release.
  8. Chinese Trade Balance: Friday, Tentative. Chinese Trade Balance has looked strong, and the November reading came in at 33.8 billion dollars, crushing the estimate of 2.13 billion. The forecast for the December release is expected to show a slight drop, with an estimate of 32.6 billion.

*All times are GMT

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 20 - 24

The Australian dollar tumbled to the lowest level since July 2010 against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after dismal employment data on Thursday was seen as increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to boost the economy.

AUD/USD fell to 0.8764 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since July 22, 2010, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8780 by close of trade, down 0.46% for the day and 2.4% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find short-term support at 0.8736, the low from July 22, 2010 and resistance at 0.8826, Friday’s high.

Official data released Thursday showed that the number of employed people in Australia declined by 22,600 in December, confounding expectations for a 7,500 increase, after a 15,400 rise in November.

Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% last month, in line with expectations.

The disappointing data revived prospects for an interest-rate reduction by the RBA to spur economic growth.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained supported amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is gaining enough traction for the Federal Reserve to continue tapering stimulus measures.

Data released on Friday showed that U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in December, in line with expectations, rising for the fifth successive month.

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Are we still talking about this today?

 

Lowest for AUD after 4 years, this happens sometimes. But we can see where we can focus.

 

Aussie is overvalued and RBA is kind enough to give us a trading range of 0.90 to 0.85

Make full use of it.

 

AUD/USD recent jump

Hi guys,

I'm a fairly new trader and have a question regarding a price movement relative to the news that I don't quiet understand.

I'm sure anyone who has been trading the AUD/USD pair recently has recognised that it has been heavily trending downwards (thanks to a range of factors including US Fed tapering and RBA jawboning.

The RBA decision to keep the money rate at 2.5% recently however seems to have changed all of this and here is my question.

If the interest rate is at an all time low (at 2.5%) and was expected to stay that way, why was the announcement of 2.5% rate a couple of days ago so bullish for AUD? I don't see any reason why the pair should have reacted that way and even though I don't expect to understand all movements of the pair in reaction to the news - I want to make sure that I'm not missing anything!

The only reason I could see for such a bullish jump was the accompanying statement from the RBA but is that really enough to completely reverse the trend?

Any input greatly appreciated,

Thanks

 

AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 17 - 21

The Australian dollar advanced against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to re-approach a one-month high hit earlier in the week, as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus program following the release of disappointing U.S. economic data.

AUD/USD rose to 0.9066 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since January 13, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9035 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.61% for the day and 0.84% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8926, the low from February 13 and resistance at 0.9066, the high from February 12.

The dollar slid after data showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% from a month earlier in January, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain.

This disappointing factory report came one day after the Commerce Department said that retail sales fell 0.4% in January, confounding expectations for a 0.3% increase.

The soft data fuelled concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year as inclement winter weather weighed on growth.

The greenback came under additional pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reassured that U.S. monetary policy will remain accommodative.

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I find that there is less noise at AUS nes event and if (in UK) one stays up it is easier to trade the moves

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