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EUR/USD: Positive outcome of the FOMC meeting will give a confidence boost in the USD Current trend Following significant decline last week, the pair Euro/USD tried to win back losses at the beginning of this week. However, after the slight rise the pair went down due to favourable data on the US NFPR. This morning the pair traded in the narrow range prior to the release of the minutes of the US FOMC, which investors are waiting with big interest. It is worth noting that overvalued dollar is gaining popularity among investors again. While, investors’ interest to the European currency, on the contrary, is decreasing amid poor macro-economic data and probability of another round of monetary policy easing in the near future. Support and resistance “Bullish” sentiments prevail at the market and it is likely that the pair will continue to decline to the local lows of 1.3520 amid strong American data. In the medium-term the demand for the American dollar will increase and the pair will continue to fall to the target level of 1.3300. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to trade in accordance with the trend placing sell orders and taking profit at the level of 1.3300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: general analysis Current trend The price of crude oil Brent continues to decline slowly but steadily. However, as long as the conflict in Iraq has not spread into the South of the country, where most of the largest oil productions are located and until Libya does not increase oil supplies, nothing seems to trigger the rise in price. Brent price fell below the level of $109.00 and reached monthly lows at $108.40. Market participants are waiting for the data on oil and oil products inventories at the US warehouses as per API. Analysts believe that oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels. Investors also await outcome of the meeting of the US Fed devoted to open market transactions (21:00 GMT+3). Support and resistance On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that downward movement may continue. Bollinger bands are directed downwards; however, the price has broken down the lower line, indicating the chance of short-term correction to the middle moving average line at the level of 110.00. However, this scenario is unlikely. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are rapidly increasing. Support levels: 108.35, 107.60, 107.00 and 106.25. Resistance levels: 109.00, 110.00, 110.60 and 111.10. Trading tips If current trend maintains it is recommended to open sell positions with the nearest target of 107.60. Next target of the “bears” will be the level of 107.00 and 106.25.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: the pair is expected to move in the sideways channel of 1.7100-1.7170 Current trend On Wednesday investors’ attention was focused on the minutes of the meeting of the US FOMC. It had been expected that volume of trades would increase and volatility would go up; however it did not happen. FOMC did not provide any unexpected information and the pressure on the USD slightly increased. Members of made decision to terminate QE3 program by the end of October. FOMC also highlighted improvements in the labor market and in the economic situation as a whole Today the Bank of England will announce the decision on asset purchase program and interest rate. The US data on initial applications for the unemployment benefits and inventories at the wholesale warehouses will become known. It is unlikely that the Bank of England will raise interest rate or decrease the volume of assets purchase; therefore, high volatility in the pair is not expected. In future demand for the Pound will continue to grow until the US Fed adopts drastic measures. Support and resistance In the medium-term the pair may grow up to the level of 1.7300. It is expected that this week the pair will move in the narrow range of 1.7100-1.7170. Support levels: 1.7100, 1.7000, 1.6920, 1.6850, 1.6810 and 1.6780. Resistance levels: 1.7150, 1.7200, 1.7260 and 1.7300. Trading tips It is recommended to trade as per trend, placing long and pending long orders from the levels of 1.7080 and 1.7000 with take profit at the level of 1.7300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend Due to lack of important macro-economic news yesterday the pair was quiet, slowly going up to resistance level of 101.80. Although the market was in anticipation of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, they did not seriously affect either the market, or the pair. At the opening of the European session today the pair continued to decline. At the moment the pair is testing support level of 101.30. The chart demonstrates “bearish” trend. In case of breakdown of the level of 101.30, the pair USD/JPY will try to test support level of 100.85, which are the lows of May. It is unlikely that the “Bears” will manage to consolidate below this level. The most feasible scenario is correction in the range of 101.65-101.80. However technical indicators show further decline. Stochastic is in the oversold zone, both of the lines are directed downwards. MACD is in the negative zone, giving a sell signal. All three moving average lines with the periods of 20, 50 and 100 are directed downwards. Support and resistance Support levels: 101.30, 101.10 and 100.85. Resistance levels: 101.50, 101.65 and 101.80. The first target of the “bulls” is 101.65; breakdown of this level will enable the pair to win back lost positions. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after consolidation of the price below the level of 101.30 with the target of 100.85. It also makes sense to place limit sell orders at the levels of 101.65 and 101.80. Long positions can be opened above the level of 102.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: The pair continues to trade in the downward channel Current trend On Thursday European currency dropped in price versus the American dollar due to improvements in the U.S. labour market and the increase in demand for the American currency. The pair reached the key support level of 1.3600 and consolidated near this level. This morning the pair tried to win back some losses; investors started to buy Euro in advance of the release of the final data on consumer price index in Germany. Market participants believed that the index would exceed the forecast, which did not happen. The index proved that predictions had been correct and the price went down again. Support and resistance Since the release of important fundamental data is not expected today, volatility is likely to be low. It is difficult to estimate further movement in the pair. However the pair remains in the downward channel, which means that the quotes will probably continue to decline. Cheap dollar is popular among investors, while Euro cannot receive support from positive European statistics. If the “bears” manage to push the price below key support level of 1.3580, the price may drop to the levels of 1.3520 and 1.3470. In the medium-term the target level will be 1.3300, which coincides with the lower limit of the downward channel. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3580, 1.3520, 1.3470 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to trade in the trend, placing short positions and pending short positions from the level of 1.3660 with take profit at 1.3300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: the increase in the U.S. retail sale may support the USD Current trend On Monday the currency pair EUR/USD demonstrated mixed trading. In the morning the price had reached resistance level of 1.3640, after that, the price corrected to support level of 1.3614 (middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. At the moment the pair is traded near this level. Volatility in the market may increase due to fundamental data. ZEW business sentiment indices of Germany and EU for July will become known today. Forecast for Germany is negative and if it proves to be true, it can put significant pressure on Euro. U.S. retail sales data USA for May will also become known. It is expected that this index will double, amounting to 0.6%, which will have a positive impact on the USD. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the US Fed before Congress. Janet Yellen may give comments on the further actions of the American regulator. Support and resistance Today the price may continue downward movement to the levels of 1.3600, 1.3585 and probably to 1.3575. From the level of 1.3585 (bottom line of Bollinger bands) the price may reverse and go back to the level of 1.3610. On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm probability of the downward movement. The price chart is moving to the lower moving average line of the Bollinger bands indicator to the level of 1.3585. MACD histogram is near the zero line not giving clear signals. Stochastic lines are crossing, turning downwards. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price level with take profit at the level of 1.3585. At the level of 1.3585 it is recommended to place limit buy orders with the target of 1.3610.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
XAU/USD: General analysis Current trend Following long-lasting ascending movement the price of gold dropped to the level of 1302.98. The decline in gold price was caused by the profit taking. At the moment the pair XAU/USD is under pressure from the U.S. economy, which is increasing growth rate. Analysts anticipate that the interest rates will be raised earlier than expected, which will significantly drop the price of gold. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1320.00 (psychologically important level), 1345.00 (four-month highs), 1391.92 (highs of 16 March). Support levels: 1302.98 (Fibonacci retracement level 38.2%), 1292.40 (Fibonacci retracement level 50.0%), 1281.00 (Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%). Trading tips Short positions are advisable below the level of 1302.00 with the target of 1282.00 and stop-loss at 1310.00.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend With the opening of the trading session the Pound has been slowly declining against the USD. British real estate market continues to grow rapidly, especially in London, where the price per square meter increased by 15%. Experts fear that speculative bubbles may occur in the market, which will have a negative impact on the British economy. In addition, at yesterday’s meeting of the Central Bank of England, interest rate has been remained unchanged at the level of 0.5%, which weakened the national currency. Support and resistance The nearest support level is 1.7120 (1/8 Murray line). If the Pound fails to hold this line, the price may drop to the level of 1.7080. Resistance level is 1.7151 (2/8Murray line). Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.7120 with protective orders at 1.7140 and the target of 1.7060.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The pair is being corrected after an abrupt fall. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.9366). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9326.
AUD/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. Under the pressure of Dead Cross pattern the price has broken down Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines, the latter becomes a resistance level (0.9392). The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 0.9332.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9332, 0.9326. Resistance levels: 0.9366, 0.9392. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement, however, daily chart confirms Bearish trend. It’s a good opportunity to open new short trades with targets at 0.9326. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: the pair will continue to move in the downtrend Current trend At the first half- week European currency was under strong pressure from investors, while the USD was strengthening due to the positive data on the US inflation. Unexpected increase of the inflation pressure in the USA instills more confidence to the market participants. Today’s European inflation data did not surprise investors, as it agreed with the forecasts. Therefore, the pair hardly responded to the news. During the day the data on the U.S labor market and construction sector will be released. Support and resistance EUR/USD is traded in the downward channel near important level of 1.3520. In case of breakout of this level, the pair will go further gown up to 1.3470. The increase of demand for the USD along with the positive US macro-economic statistics contributes to the rise of the American currency. N the medium-term it is expected that the pair EUR/USD will decline in the downtrend with the target of 1.3300. Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3300 and 1.3250. Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense as per trend, placing short positions and pending short positions from the level of 1.3600 with take profit of 1.3300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited