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EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Since the opening of the session, the single European currency is trading at 1.0968.
The nearest important 4/8 Murray level is at 1.0986. If the price overcomes the mark, the next short-term target will be 1.1032.
The currency received support when, last Thursday, Greece made a €186.3 million loan payment. It is the first time that the country managed to meet the deadline.
According to the preliminary information, Greece will receive another €8bn. aid tranche by the autumn to repay its debt to IMF. It is still hard to tell whether the country will manage to recover from the deep economic crisis and implement social and economic reforms. But the Greek problems will certainly be affecting the markets.
Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delivers his speech today; if he hints at a forthcoming rate hike, the EUR is likely to start falling.
Support and resistance
Support level: 1.0956 (3/8 Murray level).
The nearest resistance level is 1.0986 (4/8 Murray level).
Trading tips
Open long positions after the breakout of 1.0986 with the target at 1.1035 and stop-loss at 1.0960.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
On Tuesday, the Euro grew against its major competitors after an unexpected decision by the Chinese Central Bank to devaluate national currency by almost 2%, as the regulator tries to support struggling exporters. Additional support the European currency gained from the news that Greece made an agreement with its creditors to receive the third pack of the financial aid.
Today attention needs to be paid to the data on Industrial Production in eurozone (forecasted -0.2% to the previous month) and the Monthly Budget Statement in the US (expected $132 billion deficit). The publications may weaken the USD.
Another important even is the Fed’s William Dudley Speech that could shed some light on the upcoming interest rate hike.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands, which shows that an upward trend prevails now.
MACD also signals the upward movement as the histogram remains in the positive zone and above its signal line.
Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0854.
Resistance levels: 1.1085, 1.1113.
Trading tips
Open long positions from the level of 1.1090 with the target at 1.1110 and stop-loss at 1.1070, and after the breakout of the level of 1.1113 with the target at 1.1145 and stop-loss at 1.1095.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0965 with the target at 1.0920 and stop-loss at 1.0985, and after the breakdown of the level of 1.0900 with the target at 1.0860 and stop-loss at 1.0925.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Currently, the situation is setting against the British currency. In June, UK Trade Deficit grew significantly, reaching 1.6 billion pounds, so the Central Bank of England is unlikely to increase its interest rates is the nearest future. Thus, the pound should weaken in the long run, making British goods more competitive and increasing UK export.
Fed, on the contrary, should raise the interest rates that will definitely strengthen the dollar.
Today, the US releases Industrial Production index. If the actual statistics exceed the forecast of 0.3%, the US dollar will continue growing.
Support and resistance
Support level: 1.5594 (7/8 Murrey level).
Resistance level: 1.5625 (8/8 Murrey level).
Trading tips
Open long positions after the breakout of 1.5625 with the target at 1.5685 and stop-loss at 1.5600.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
On Friday, GBP/USD strengthened slightly and closed the trading week at 1.5645. On Monday, the pair opened only 10 points higher and continues hovering around 1.5650.
Today, no important news is released. Only the publication of US Housing Market Index may somehow influence the pair dynamics. However, it is quite unlikely as the index change is expected to be very insignificant.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands are heading up, the price is moving along the upper MA. The price will continue moving this way, until it crosses the upper MA.
Support level: 1.5619 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5571 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5667 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands).
Trading tips
The pair continues trading sideways, and the price will not change significantly. Wait until the trend changes.
Open short positions when the level of 1.5630 is broken through with the target at 1.5571.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The Euro continues falling against the USD amid poor macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. The latest data shows that the second quarter GDP growth in the eurozone was only at 0.3% (forecasted 0.4% growth). The yearly growth is expected to be at around 1.5% for 2015, and 1.9% for the next year. The recovery of the leading economies, such as Germany, France and Italy is also sluggish, which points out to the necessity to maintain soft monetary policies.
Today, the data on Housing Starts in the US is due that could affect the movement in the pair.
Support and resistance
In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.1047 (5/8 Murray), the next target becomes the level of 1.0989, where the Moving Average with 200 period stands.
The nearest support level is at 1.1047 (5/8 Murray).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1108 (6/8 Murray).
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047 with the target at 1.0966 and stop-loss at 1.1070.
USD/CHF: flat until news releases from US
Current trend
Market participants are waiting for today’s publications from the US on the Consumer Price Index for July and the FOMC Minutes. Most likely, markets are going to remain calm until then with volatility increase thereafter.
During the week, poor data on Retail Sales for June came out in Switzerland that showed a decrease by 0.9% (forecasted a decrease by 0.6%).
From the fundamental point of view, the pair USD/CHF is supported by the economy growth slowdown in Switzerland, a possibility of the Swiss NB market intervention, negative interest rates in Switzerland and the strengthening USD. The pair is pressured by the safe-haven currency status of the Frank.
Support and resistance
The pair broke out the upper border of the channel 0.9720-0.9120 and is growing towards year high at 1.0100. Long positions remain viable in the medium-term as long as the price stays above the level of 0.9500 (EMA144 and EMA200 area on the daily chart).
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic turned to signal sales.
Support levels: 0.9690, 0.9650, 0.9600, 0.9550, 0.9500.
Resistance levels: 0.9790, 0.9890.
Trading tips
Open short positions from the level of 0.9720 with targets at 0.9680, 0.9660 and stop-loss at 0.9745, and after the breakdown of the level of 0.9600 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9550, 0.9500.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the levels of 0.9650, 0.9620 with targets at 0.9750, 0.9790, 0.9850 and stop-loss at 0.9580.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
The pair has been strengthening slightly; several times, corrections broke the upward trend but the price continued growing.
Today, macroeconomic statistics are likely to support the pair. UK Retail Sales index should grow, while US data is expected to further weaken US dollar.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators support the pair growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards; the price is moving along the upper MA.
Support levels: 1.5649 (middle MA), 1.5577 (lower MA).
Resistance levels: 1.5722 (upper MA).
Trading tips
Open short positions when the price reaches and rebounds down from the level of 1.5722. Set take-profit at 1.5649. The pair is likely to continue declining further to 1.5577. Once this level is reached, open long positions with the target at 1.5722.
XAU/USD: investors may take profits
Current trend
Today, during the Asian session, gold continued strengthening. However, in the European session, a decline started as profitable positions are closed at the end of the week.
Support and resistance
On the daily and 4-hour charts, OsMA ans Stochastic still give buy signals. However, the signs that indicators may turn to short positions have appeared. While the pair is below the resistance level of 1168.00 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA144 on the daily chart) medium-term short positions remain relevant.
After the breakout of 1168.00 the pair continues growing to 1183.00 (EMA200). And the consolidation above 1193.00 (50% Fibonacci) would definitely return the upward trend.
If the pair declines to 1145.00 and consolidates below 1136.00, it may further fall to year lows at 1085.00.
Support levels: 1145.00, 1136.00, 1115.00.
Resistance levels: 1168.00, 1183.00, 1193.00.
Trading tips
Open short positions from 1168.00, 1164.00, 1158.00, 1152.00 with targets at 1145.00, 1136.00 and further targets at 1125.00, 1115.00. Set stop-loss at 1176.00.
Open long positions and place pending buy orders from 1135.00 and after the breakout of 1183.00.
Brent: declining prices
Current trend
Brent crude oil fell below $45 per barrel for the first time since March 2009. The prices keep falling for the fourth month and broke down the psychologically important level of 46.50 (2014 lows).
Amongst the main reasons of the fall are: the Chinese stock market crisis, the Yuan devaluation, supply on world markets that exceeds demand, continuing output increase by OPEC countries, expectations of Iranian oil to reach the world markets soon. The crisis in China can affect the world economy growth, which will further pressure the demand for oil.
The following factors can prevent a further fall in prices: a reduction in output quotes by OPEC countries, a decision by the Fed not to increase the interest rate, an end of the Chinese stock markets crisis.
Support and resistance
OsMA and Stochastic remain in the negative zones on all charts.
Support levels: 43.00, 41.50, 40.00.
Resistance levels: 45.50, 48.10, 50.00, 52.00.
Trading tips
Open short positions from the current levels and from 45.20, 45.50, 45.90 with targets at 43.00, 41.50 and stop-loss at 46.20.
Alternative scenario and long positions are not considered.
XAU/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The XAU/USD pair is trading below the important resistance level of 1156.25. If the price fails to consolidate above it in the nearest future, a decline to 1140.63 should be expected.
According to the analysts, the gold price may start growing if the situation in China becomes worse. In early trade on Tuesday, China's stock index lost about 6.3%. If the government does not propose any measures, the fall may accelerate.
International rail freight transport activity as well as Manufacturing PMI fell to the 6-year lows at 47.1 points. Leading indexes of the EU economy are also declining, having lost 4.5% yesterday. Thus, safe haven appeal of gold may increase.
Support and resistance
Support level is 1.171.88.
The nearest resistance level is 1140.63.
Trading tips
Open short positions when the price breaks down the level of 1150.00 with the target at 1140.22 and stop-loss at 1156.00.