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On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD initially fell hard but found enough buying pressure to erase all its losses and closed near the high of the day, however it did not had enough strength to close above Thursday’s range, which suggests being slightly on the bullish side of neutral.
The pair continues to trade above all three moving averages 10, 50 and the 200-day that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1264, a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 200-day moving average at 1.1203 (support), and a daily support at 1.1097.
Eurozone Markit mftg PMI Sept final 52.6 as exp
Eurozone Markit mftg PMI Sept final reading 3 Oct
German and EZ finals not showing any improvement but still decent enough.
EURUSD back up to 1.1234 as EURGBP rallies again to 0.8742 sending GBPUSD back to 1.2850
Full Markit release here
EUR/USD was trading in tight range today, between 1.1204 and 1.1241. The pair closed modestly lower despite the suprisingly good EU macro data released today. In the short-term the pair is seen in neutral stance.
EUR/USD: A Dollar's Story Into Year-End: 2 L/T Factors In Play
Motivation for Our FX View:
We continue to believe that EUR/USD will move lower on diverging growth, inflation and monetary policy outlooks. In the near term, we expect the ECB to announce an extension of the asset purchase programme at the current pace until the end of 2017, but no other additional measures. Thus, till year-end, EUR/$ is mainly a Dollar story.
Despite this and the recent strength, the EUR has weakened significantly over the past two years, and we think this EUR weakening trend has a long way to run.
We see a couple of longer-term fundamental forces at work. First, the flow picture should turn increasingly EUR-negative as Euro area residents send funds abroad and reserve managers allocate away from the EUR. Second, we think there is a structural element to disinflation in the periphery as it continues to improve competitiveness compared with the core of the Euro area.
As a result, our view is that inflation will be slower to pick up than during a normal cycle, in line with projections from our European team, which show HICP inflation still at 1.3% in 2018Q4. This should keep ECB policy accommodative, maintaining downward pressure on the EUR.
EUR/USD Targets:
EUR/USD forecasts at 1.08, 1.04 and 1.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months.
Things to Watch:
Lack of implementation of fiscal and structural reforms remain a key risk. A shift towards more credit easing from the ECB could also be a headwind for our weaker EUR view.
source
The euro lost strength the US dollar on Monday, but the decline was not significant enough to break key levels. If bullish sentiment again prevail, resistance at 1.1284 will be tested. Support is located at 1.1149 and 1.1122.
Yesterday the EURUSD fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.
The pair closed below the 10 and 50-day moving average that should act as dynamic resistances and is still above the 200-day that is acting as dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1264, a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 200-day moving average at 1.1202 (support), a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1181 (support) and a daily support at 1.1097.
The story of the day is that ECB is close to consensus on ending its bond-buying program before it concludes next year in March. Then EUR/USD pair was sloping between 1.11365 and 1.1238 until again find its well know place around 1.1200 mark.