Eur/usd - page 287
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The suspense is strong.
All day long EUR/USD continue to trade around the opening price. 1.1200 seems to be a strong resistance point.
German import price index May -0.2% vs +0.2% exp
+0.6% prev
Softer reading will be a concern for inflation growth but euro not fazed
Yesterday the EURUSD moved back and forward as fundamental news from Greece hit the wire. The currency closed in the red near the open of the day creating a doji pattern but managed to stay above the 50-day moving average. Today may be a do or die for Greece as the three day EU summit ends on Saturday but we may get a glimpse of the Greece negotiations at the press conference scheduled later today at 13:00 (GMT).
The pair continues to fluctuate in the range 1.1150-1.1230. Possible breakthrough of the upper limit of the range, which would open the way to important resistance around 1.1430.
Euro crashes to session lows
Woosh.No headlines behind the latest drop. It hit right at the top of the hour so it might have been someone trying to get out of euro ahead of the weekend.
The euro chart isn't pretty.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 29, 2015
The EUR/USD pair fell pretty steeply during the course of the week, but as you can see there is an uptrend line that sits just below current trading. We believe that this market will have buyers below, and on top of that there is a significant amount of support at the 1.10 level. We have no interest in selling this market at least not yet, as there is such support below.
We have a red line at the 1.15 level, and if we can get above there we feel that this is more or less going to be a “buy-and-hold” type of market. But with all of the problems with Greek debt talks going on at the moment, the markets are a bit jittery and it is going to be difficult to trade this particular currency pair for any real length of time. However, once we get that announcement that almost surely will include the Greeks pain back the debt some way, somehow, the buyers will more than likely step back into this market. We do anticipate seen this market break out to the upside and above the 1.15 level, but we may have to build up a bit of momentum in the meantime.
Further compounding things is the fact that the longer-term outlook for this currency pair is a bit questionable as we don’t exactly know what the Federal Reserve is going to do, but truthfully we don’t believe that the Federal Reserve knows what is going to do either. With that being the case, we believe that sooner or later nerves get call and the Euro continues to rise. European indices are starting to look fairly healthy all of a sudden, so we believe that it’s only a matter time before all European asset start to get bought. If you look at the Greek bond markets, they were fairly healthy during the past week, and that suggests that bond traders believe that the Greeks are going to work something out, which of course would be good for the currency overall. However, we think it’s going to be a short-term traders market in the meantime.
Greece calls referendum on rejected proposals – EUR could go wild on this mess
The Greek crisis just got another dimension: in a dramatic speech, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras announced a referendum on the latest EU proposals which he just rejected. It will be held on July 5th, after the June 30th deadline. He asked the institutions (formerly known as the troika) for a temporary extension of a few days. The Eurogroup was planned to meet on Saturday at 12:00 GMT, but the Greek parliament convenes at 9:00 to vote on the referendum law to parliament.
There are less than 48 hours until markets open, and if nothing changes, it is going to be very messy. Some brokers are already getting ready as we’ve learned already before the dramatic announcement.
Tsipras flew back from Brussels to Athens to discuss the latest proposals. These proposals had not really received an applause from all creditors. Perhaps the IMF and others are actually against it.
This is what Tsipras said to his people:
We have been presented with an ultimatum, and it is the historic responsibility of our country and people to answer this ultimatum.
There was talk about a concession on pensions and VAT, but only a 5 month extension and no debt relief. Tsipras says the offers violate European values.
Some commentators see it as a vote on the euro or the drachma. It is still to be seen if this is a bold move or a wild gamble. Is it a negotiation tactic? It will be interesting to hear the reactions from the three creditors.
As an immediate step, they could withdraw the proposal and cancel the Eurogroup meeting. It’s a chance for them to move away from a suggestion that the three institutions weren’t that keen on anyway.
EUR/USD ended the week around 1.1165, up from the weekly lows and well above support. Nevertheless, the common currency lost a lot of ground on this tense week.
source
EUR/USD closed above the support line, I will have to wait till Monday opening to see if we are going to have a rebound or a break.
EUR/USD Forecast June 29 – July 3 – Greek crisis reaches deadline
EUR/USD was watching Greece very carefully with contrasting news causing confusion. The story became more dramatic after markets closed with the announcement of post-deadline referendum. In the last and busy week of H2, we have important inflation numbers and PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The reported breakthrough in the Greek crisis on Monday did not last long as the skies darkened on Wednesday and Thursday. New hopes for a deal on Friday still lacked a few key factors. The euro has been reacting to the headlines, but often falling on good news. One reason is the refocusing on monetary policy divergence, that favors the dollar, and the other is that the common currency has become a funding or even a “safe haven” currency. But, in case of a “Grexit” or a “Grexident”, it is clear that the euro would plunge that is already worrying some brokers. The most recent development was the announcement of a referendum on the rejected proposals. This is planned for after the deadline, assuming that the Eurogroup approves a temporary extension of the deadline, which seems unlikely as of Saturday at noon. And, the referendum law still has to pass in the Greek parliament. The crisis has overshadowed data, which has been balanced: better than expected PMIs but a weak IFO read. In the US, figures have been more positive than negative, with home sales leading the way ahead of a busy but short week in the US.
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