Eur/usd - page 283
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EUR/USD breaks double top and 1.14 on second wave of USD selling
The pair respected the 1.1375 level several times, but at last it was broken and the pair is trading above 1.14. The high so far is 1.1410 1.1416 with resistance awaiting at 1.1460 – the recovery high.
The dovish pressure from the Fed made its way to second wave of USD selling in the European session.
The euro does not seem to care about the lack of progress in the Greek crisis. In a speech to the German parliament, Chancellor Angela Merkel was not showing any signs of compromise, even though her tone was soft.
The Fed left policy unchanged and made it clear that the path of rate hikes will be very very gradual. This was reflected in the dot plot as well as in Yellen’s speech, where she said that the Fed needs to be confident – it needs more evidence that the recovery is on track.
EURUSD on yesterday session initially fell but found enough buying pressure at 1.1204 previous day low to reverse and close in the green near the high of the day.
The currency is rising due to the depreciation of the US dollar after the Fed Chair Yellen stated that inflation has a good probability of remaining low for a long time and reiterated that rate hikes will be gradual. Economists now see as most probable US rate hike later this year or in the beginning of 2016.
In the short-term we may see a rise up to 1.1460 being the high of February and retested in May.
The pair pushed back the support of 1.1205 and raised sharply above 1.1330. The short-term picture is positive for testing of 1.1386 and 1.1467.
Three explanations on why the euro has remained so strong
Bank of America Merrill Lynch looks at what's kept a bid under the euro
They ask, "why is EUR defying gravity?
1.Euro had become the favorite funding currency the world over with significant leverage being added in the past year. Given the move we've already seen, and the fact that higher vol lowers the risk adjusted return for your carry, risk aversion should lead to unwinding of these carry trades which require buying of EUR.
2. Price action would suggest there are still residual short Jpy-X (inc eurjpy) positions being unwound as well as general position reductions supported by internal and CFTC stats.
3.Many portfolio managers may have been significantly underweight euros for some time now. As the euro has depreciated and European fixed income has sold off materially, this would provide a good entry point to slowly start to reduce/ take profit on underweight positions."
There have been a series of notes along these lines from banks and research firms and there's nothing close to a definitive answer. At some point, the chart tells the story and it's a story of resilience. We're now in the process of the fifth attempt to break above 1.14. Once the May high of 1.1467 breaks, there isn't much in the way of resistance until the 200-day moving average at 1.1705 and the pre-QE lows at 1.2246.
source
we will have more rise on the EUR/USD as long as the price is over 1.133.price is supported by a risen RSI trend line
The EURUSD break that turned fake - What did we learn?
The 1.1380 break failed but there's always a lesson to be learned
Losing money can be ok as long as you learn something in the process
I was stopped out of my 1.1380 break trade at 1.1375, a 15 pip loss on a long with an average of 1.1390
There were chances to take 25 to 30 pips as we tested 1.1420 but I decided to let it run. It was a great market for scalpers playing 1.1380 - 1.1420 In the end the Greek news put my trade to the sword
As I noted yesterday, I was cautious about the lack of follow through which is why I kept my stop very tight, and the trade wasn't to be
So what did we learn?
You've always got to listen to the price action. In this case it gave me a choice. Take profit while 1.1420 didn't break or holdout. I chose to hold out and was blown up by the Greek headlines while tucking into my dinner. Not much I can do about that.
The level is still very much in play at 1.1380/85 and is now resistance again. The 1.1420 level has shown its hand above there so we know what needs to be done if we go up once again.
I'll keep watching the level again with a view to trading it but I'm fully aware of the risks, which are going to mainly come from Greek headlines. I won't be touching it closer to the close today and will likely square up anything I've got on into the weekend
A loss is a loss and I don't like them any way they come but following the rules and keeping your discipline means that you keep your risk low and manageable. There's no guess work and no staring at a bigger loss hoping it will come back. Hope isn't a strategy
source
EUR/USD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.1436 but closed lower at 1.1366. Trading signals remain low for now, but the area 1.1380 - 1.1465 remains a good place for short positions with targets in the area of 1.1180 - 1.1050 with tight stop loss above 1.1465. The nearest support is at 1.1350. A clear break below it could take price to neutral zone testing 1.1280 / 50. Bullish pattern can be activated in a clear break above 1.1465.
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure around the 1.1436 and gave most of its gains back but managed to close in the green near the open of the day, creating a shooting star pattern. This pattern suggests that a pullback may be set in motion, now the question is how far it will go. The first level to watch is 1.1286 the 10-day moving average and the other is a daily support at 1.1236.
at least it broke resistance, let's see what happens next.
EUR/USD is facing new support and resistance levels. 1.1390 and 1.1280 I am not going to open any position until Monday in case something will happen in the EU meeting.