Eur/usd - page 239
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EURUSD rose on yesterday session mainly on the back of profit taking ahead of this week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement.
From a wider angle, rallies towards levels of around 1.08 should still prove to be a good selling opportunities. This is mainly due to additional spreading of diverging ECB-Fed monetary policy expectations.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 55.1 points
The ZEW German economic sentiment for March was expected to advance from 53 to 58.9 points. The all European figure carried expectations 58.2 points. The “current situation” component was predicted to rise to 50 points.
The final inflation report for February was expected to confirm the fall of 0.3% in headline CPI (still outright deflation) and a core CPI value of +0.6%, both are year over year figures. The employment change for Q4 was also published at the same time.
EUR/USD flirted with 1.06 before the publication, trading at slightly higher ground than beforehand, but still way down in the bigger picture.
Tension is growing towards the all important Fed meeting tomorrow. Janet Yellen and her colleagues are predicted to remove the “patience” wording from the statement, paving the way for a hike in rates. Follow a live coverage of the event.
Eurozone inflation confirmed at negative 0.3% in February
Eurozone inflation confirmed at negative 0.3% in February
Forex - EUR/USD: Euro Cheerful On German ZEW, Euro Area CPI
The euro was boosted versus the US dollar on Tuesday, following economic sentiment data from the euro zone's leading economy and the currency bloc's consumer prices report.
The euro was seen 0.45% higher at $1.0613, recovering after hitting a 12-year low $1.0462 last Friday.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, evaluating the economic outlook of about 350 respondents for the six months ahead, rose to 54.8 in March, up from the previous month when the reading stood at 53 points.
The Current Situation Indicator came in at 55.1 in the reported month, rising from February's 45.5 and compared with analysts' forecast of just 52 points.
The final reading on the bloc's inflation showed it had fallen 0.3% in February compared to a year earlier, much better than the -0.6% in January. This was in line with forecasts.
Later in the day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to meet European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi in Berlin where the subject of the ECB’s bond buying program could well come up for discussion, given yesterday’s publication of the latest numbers for the central bank's first week of bond buying when €9.75 billion of sovereign bonds were bought.
At a conference in Cernobbio, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Viscosaid that there were risks the program could overshoot its goal, while adding that "it is beyond doubt that the strength of the exchange rate decline is larger than we had expected."
Meanwhile, the most anticipated event of this week will be the FOMC meeting which starts on Tuesday, as many traders expect that the "patience" stance will be dropped from the policy statement, igniting speculation that the interest rate hike in the US could be brought forward to the beginning of the summer.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD is still extending its downtrend on intraday charts, as a massive sell-off still persists and the only possible mild support is slightly below $1.05.
From a bigger perspective, daily EUR/USD charts are now in free fall mode and we are expecting a correction rather than another sharp decline in the coming trading sessions due to very strong oversold conditions and technical oscillators placed in extreme levels.
A very short timeframe of 15 minutes established a trading range between $1.0650 and $1.0460. We are expecting the euro to remain between the bands on Monday as the economic calendar is light on data.
source
EUR/USD: Bulls Wiped Out at $1.0650, Pair Heads Lower
Some short covering was observed on currency markets on Tuesday as traders were getting out of positions before the critical FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. The central bank should drop the patient language, while traders also expect a more hawkish stance after the recent forecast beating non-farm job payrolls.
The meeting is expected to cause massive volatility and big movements, so investors are on standby until the statement is revealed.
Nevertheless, the pair managed to rise around 100 pips from intraday lows and was testing the $1.0650 resistance during the early US session, however, bulls quickly retreated and so did the pair. The selling stalled at $1.0600, making the daily change of the pair only 0.3% to the upside.
Earlier in the day,US housing data came out mixed and disappointed investors.
US construction companies took out 3% more building permits in February than a month earlier, bringing the annualized tally to 1.092 million, or the second highest rate since June 2008 (after last October's 1.1 million), and also zooming past expectations for a 1.065 million print, fresh figures from the Department of Commerce said on Tuesday. In the previous three months, building permits hovered unchanged at 1.06 million.
According to the CFTC and Rabobank's research, long USD positions surged in the wake of the previous week’s release of strong February non-farm payrolls data and have now surpassed the previous highs for the year, while EUR shorts extended their position, though they remain a little below the year’s highest point.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD is still extending its downtrend on intraday charts, as a massive sell-off still persists and the only possible mild support is slightly below $1.05.
From a bigger perspective, daily EUR/USD charts are now in free fall mode and we are expecting a correction rather than another sharp decline in the coming trading sessions due to very strong oversold conditions and technical oscillators placed in extreme levels.
A very short timeframe of 15 minutes established a trading range between $1.0650 and $1.0460. We are expecting the euro to remain between the bands on Monday as the economic calendar is light on data.
source
the Monday's Doji proved that the price is consolidated at the support range of 1.0500 and price now is making a nice correction.
EUR/USD edges higher for second consecutive day before key Fed meeting
The U.S. dollar fell against the euro for the second straight day, as disappointing housing data slowed the currency's push toward parity before Wednesday's critical Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
EUR/USD inched up 0.0021 or 0.20% to 1.0591 in U.S. afternoon trading. The pair dipped below 1.057 in overnight trading before rising to a daily-high of 1.0650 several hours later. EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.05, its 12-year low from last week, while receiving resistance at $1.14, the one-month high from Feb. 17.
The Federal Reserve could remove a reference to remaining patient from its minutes when the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The removal usually provides an indication that the U.S. central bank is ready to raise interest rates at some point this year. Typically, when the Fed eliminates such language it signals that an interest rate hike will occur at either of its next two meetings. Following this week's meeting, the FOMC will convene in June as well as September.
Efforts by the Fed to tighten monetary policy can cause the dollar to strengthen against other major currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell slightly by 0.07% to 99.97. Last week, the index reached a 12-year high while eclipsing the 100 level.
The dollar's rally was also slowed by worse than expected housing data on Tuesday.
Last month, housing starts, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, fell by 17% to a seasonally adjusted pace of 897,000 units to reach the lowest level since January, 2014. Horrid weather throughout the Northeast for the month of February is thought to be responsible for the downturn. Housing permits have been above an adjusted pace of 1 million since July.
In Germany, meanwhile, the ZEW Current Conditions Index rose to 55.1 to reach an eight month high. The German Economic Sentiment Index also moved up to 54.8, its highest level in 13 months.
Elsewhere, Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras reportedly requested a meeting with top officials including Germany chancellor Angela Merkel, France president Francois Hollande and European Central Bank head Mario Draghi at an EU summit later this week in Brussels.
source
EURUSD initially rose but found enough resistance at the 10-day moving average to push price back down and close in the middle of the daily range. A close above the 10-day moving average could signal a swift in mid-term trend. Focus now turns to the upcoming FOMC meeting outcome later today and we may experience a short squeeze.
ECB Calculates 'Grexit' Bond Losses: Press
European Central Bank (ECB) head of risk analysis Fernando Gonzalez Miranda has analyzed how three "Grexit" scenarios would affect Greek bond prices and presented the results to the Bundesbank a few days ago, German weekly Manager Magazin reported on Wednesday, underlining concerns in Frankfurt over the ongoing political crisis surrounding Athens.
A "Grexident" - the accidental exit of Greece from the shared currency - would have the worst impact, the magazine says, leading to a loss of 95% on the nominal value.
A negotiated withdrawal of Greece would decrease the nominal value of Greek sovereign bonds by 86%, according to the report.
However, the ECB declined to comment on the report.
'Grexit' woes
This was, however, not the first insider report suggesting that the Frankfurt-based bank was taking the 'Grexit' scenario seriously.
On February 20, German daily Der Spiegel reported that the ECB kicked off internal simulation games on how the rest of the euro zone could be held together, if Greece retreated from the currency bloc.
Even back in 2012, during the worst days of the euro crisis, the ECB was reportedly planning how Greece would manage an exit from the euro zone, despite denials at the time. The Financial Times unearthed what became known as “Plan Z”, the top secret blueprints for what a Greek exit might look like.
source
price is still testing the resistance level 1.0630 for the second day and still no sign for a break over the resistance. if price close today under the resistance level I will go short.