Eur/usd - page 228
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EURUSD continued in tight range bound during the course of yesterday session, as the pair continues to hover around the 10-day moving average at 1.1367. Ultimately, this market looks as if it is consolidating between the top 1.1450 level and the 1.1270 level on the bottom.
ECB preparing contingency plans for Grexit
So says Der Spiegel without revealing how it sourced the info
Would be very shabby for the ECB not to prepare really
BOE already has said it's discussing plans and I'm sure others are as well
EUR/USD falls to 1-week lows amid Greek jitters
The euro fell to one-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, despite positive euro zone data as concerns over the Greek debt crisis continued to dampen demand for the single currency.
EUR/USD hit 1.1303 during European afternoon trade, the pair's lowest since February 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.1321, declining 0.41%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.1268, the low of February 9 and resistance at 1.1449, Thursday's high.
Sentiment on the euro remained fragile as investors remained cautious as another round of talks with eurozone finance ministers was set to take place on Friday after Germany rejected a proposed bailout extension request from Greece.
The Greek request included a pledge to maintain "fiscal balance" for a six-month period, in order to give it time to reach a new agreement on growth over the next four years with its partners in the euro zone, Reuters reported.
But German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said it was "not a substantial proposal for a solution" and did not meet the criteria agreed on at the euro group meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday.
Earlier Friday, research group Markit said that the euro zone's preliminary composite purchasing managers' index rose to 53.5 this month from 52.6 in January, beating expectations for a reading of 53.0.
Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 50.9 in February, disappointing expectations for a rise to 51.5, while the services PMI rose to 55.5 this month from a reading of 54.0 in January, compared to expectations for an increase to 54.2.
In France, the preliminary manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.7 this month from 49.2 in January, while the services PMI rose to 53.4 in February from 49.4 last month, exceeding expectations for an increase to 49.8.
The euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP easing 0.09% to 0.7368.
In the U.K., the Office for National Statistics said retail sales rose fell 0.3% in January, compared to expectations for a 0.2% downtick. December's figure was revised to a 0.2% gain from a previously estimated increase of 0.4%.
Year-on-year, U.K. retail sales rose at a rate of 4.8% last month, below expectations for a 5.9% increase and after a downwardly revised 3.8% gain in December.
A separate report showed that U.K. public sector net borrowing dropped by £9.40 billion January, more than the expected decline of £7.80 billion. December's figure was revised to a £9.87 rise from a previously estimated £12.47 increase.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.
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Optimism from Dijsselbloem boosts euro
The euro jumped when the Eurogroup leader said there was reason for some optimism on Greek deal
Of course, the words of his predecessor should be kept in mind.
Juncker was also in the press today: "I see Greece as a permanent member of the euro family," he said. "A Greek exit won't happen."
Overall, Dijsselbloem's comments probably aren't as optimistic as the market is making them out to be: Talks are "quite complicated" he said. "There is still reason for some optimism but it's very difficult"
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EURUSD moves higher on accord headline
Bloomberg headline has reported the new
The EURUSD has pushed above the 200 and 100 hour MA and moved toward the highs for the week at the 1.1449 area. The 100 and 200 hour MA now switches to support at the 1.1368-77 area.
The news is not being picked up by any other new sources.
Euro Soars After Greek Official Says Eurogroup Reaches Accord, Denied 8 Minutes Later
Update:according to Capital.gr, the preliminary agreement covers the following points:
That said, according to the FT, there are still many details left to be decided despite the Greek agreement in the pre-meeting negotitations. To be sure, this wouldn't be the first time all parties had agreed on a draft, only for that draft to be replaced in the last minute.
* * *
Just minutes after convening - following a few hours of backroom shuttle diplomacy, Bloomberg reports:
US equity and EURUSD markets are exuberant... We wonder how much mutiny Tsipras will face back at home...read more
White Smoke in Brussels: A Deal for Greece and Europe
At an extraordinary session on Friday, Eurogroup members (euro zone finance ministers) adopted a common statement approving a four-month - rather than the six months initially requested - extension of Greece’s current bailout program.
Eurogroup Head Jeroen Dijsselbloem, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde and EU Economics Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici were holding frantic and furious talks with the ministers separately to find a compromise and close a deal.
The deal
According to officials present in Brussels, the interim extension program does not include austerity measures, while Athens commits to not making any unilateral moves - such as raising the minimum wage or protecting primary homes from foreclosures as had been initially planned by Greece's new government.
Moreover, the document reportedly includes a requirement for Greece to submit a letter by Monday outlining the measures it plans to take. Athens' administration has to give details how it will crack down on tax evasion and corruption, reform the country’s dysfunctional public administration and tackle Greece’s humanitarian crisis - the result of six years of recession and harsh austerity measures dictated by the EU/IMF as well as the size of emergency rescue funds.
Massive withdrawals from Greek banks
Without an agreement, the nation would probably run out of money in early March as it is locked out of international financial markets and their lending options.
Only in one day, on Friday, up to €1 billion was withdrawn by worried depositors from local banks in Greece, according to central bank officials. If the outflows maintained such pace, local lenders would need more emergency funding from the European Central Bank "within the next week" to avoid financial collapse.
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 23, 2015
The EUR/USD pair fell during the week as the market continues to churn between 1.13 on the bottom, and 1.15 on the top. Because of this, it’s going to be very difficult to trade this market from a longer-term perspective, and as a result we feel that is probably just going to be easier to wait for some type of bounce in order to take advantage of value in the US dollar. Ultimately, we have no interest in buying and we believe that this market goes down to the 1.10 handle.
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I hope by the start of the next week the price will break out of the tight trading range
EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 23-27
EUR/USD was heavily influenced by every headline related to Greece and the positive finish to the week provides hope. The last week of February features another TLTRO auction as well as inflation and confidence numbers, with the highlights coming from Draghi’s speeches. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Negotiations saw their ups and also their downs. Conflicting headlines created a lot of volatility.Eventually, a 4 month extension was agreed upon. However, there are bumps along the way, as soon as this Monday. Will we get a break from these headlines? Elsewhere, the first ever ECB minutes showed that QE was “inevitable”. German business confidence improved, but not as much as expected. PMIs showed a growing divide between struggling manufacturing and stronger services. In the US, numbers were mixed. What’s next for the pair?
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