Eur/usd - page 111
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German CPI -0.1% vs. -0.1% forecast
German consumer price inflation fell last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Federal Statistical Office Germany said that German CPI fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.1%, from -0.1% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected German CPI to fall -0.1% last month.
EURUSD fell during the course of the session on yesterday, testing the 1.35 level again and bounced high from the massive support area, forming a hammer pattern.
We could see more buying on a break of the yesterday’s highs sending EURUSD looking for the 1.3600 level again.
Defensive Friday the 13th expected given weekend headline risk
Key levels cited, 1.3550 remains pivotal.
Daily Forex Trading Outlook on
Forex Trading Outlook for Friday the 13th 2014 - YouTube
ECB’s Coeure: Quantitative easing still in the toolbox but not needed now
Comments from Coeure:
“To be very clear, [QE] is not needed now because we don’t see deflation in the euro zone and we have a deep sense that the measures we decided last week are appropriate to face the prospect of low inflation.”
EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 9, 2014
The EUR/USD pair fell drastically during the course of the week as we slammed into the 1.35 handle. All things being equal though, the buyer stepped in and formed a bit of a brick wall. With that, it’s obvious that the market has a “floor” in this area, and it’s quite likely that it will be the lowest print that we will see over the course of the summer. In fact, we are starting to believe that we are finding the summer range between the 1.35 handle, and the 1.40 handle. The 1.37 handle does cause some type of reaction though, and that must be paid attention to.
The fact that the European Central Bank went into real negative interest rates, and that the Euro still managed to find its footing suggests to us that the market will not sell off below that level. With that being the case, we feel the longer-term traders can play this more or less is a range bound market, but pullbacks should be thought of as buying opportunities. In fact, we would even suggest going to shorter timeframe charts to find a decent entries based upon supportive candles. Anytime this market pulls back, we would be very interested in what the 4 hour chart is doing. A nice 4 hour supportive candle within the context of the longer-term chart might be a nice way to play this market. Buying a supportive candle on the 4 hour chart while using the backdrop of the weekly chart as your guidelines, might just be the way to go.
We find it very difficult to imagine that this market is going to go above the 1.40 handle anytime soon. It could possibly down the road, but right now it appears that the market is fairly content to go sideways. This particular market has been very choppy even when it’s “trending” so that’s not a huge surprise truthfully. If we did manage to break down below the 1.35 handle however, we would feel this market was coming undone and would become very bearish.
EUR/USD Forecast June 16-20
EUR/USD has been pushed down by various concerns, but didn’t go too far. What’s next for the common currency? Inflation and current account in the Eurozone as well as some data from Germany are set to rock the euro. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Bond yields of euro-zone countries, both from the periphery and from the core, have fallen to low levels, doubting the continuation of inflows of yield hungry investments into the euro-zone. In addition, continued verbal pressure from the ECB and the implementation of the negative deposit rate have all weighed on the euro. In the US, the employment situation certainly is encouraging with a big leap in job openings, but the American consumer seems somewhat reluctant to buy. Will the divergence of monetary policy and economic news push the pair even lower?
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EURUSD June 16 Weekly Technical, Fundamental Forecast: Breakdown Or Bounce?
The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we cover outlooks for the major pairs for the coming week and beyond.
Summary
Technical Outlook: Edging towards confirmed top. As for a reversal, we need a lower move before we can call the start of the next leg down.
Fundamental Outlook: Neutral near term, bearish longer term. Light calendar suggests fundamentals not likely to move the pair.
Conclusions: Confirmed break or holding of support could determine the pair’s direction given the likely lack of fundamental surprises. FOMC optimism might provide the push needed.
Trader Positioning: Retail traders making classic mistake of playing a bounce that hasn’t started.
Conclusions: What’s needed to change expectations, and bring a EURUSD breakout
Technical Outlook
For the first time in 6 weeks, the EURUSD had the bearish uncertainty about ECB stimulus lifted, so it could resume its usual tracking of overall risk appetite as reflected by the major US and European stock indexes.
Overall Risk Appetite Per Weekly Charts Of Leading Global Stock Indexes: Taking A Break
Overall risk appetite as reflected in US and European indexes took a break last week, but its outlook for the coming weeks remains firmly bullish as nothing suggests this was more than a normal technical pause, understandable after a long steady rise, significant overhead resistance looming just above, and no potent bullish news to justify a successful test of that resistance just yet.
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EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 16 - 20
The broadly weaker euro slid lower against the dollar on Friday, re-approaching four-month lows as concerns over the escalating conflict in Iraq bolstered safe haven demand for the dollar.
EUR/USD was down 0.08% to 1.3541 at the close, not far from the four-month trough of 1.3502 reached on June 5. For the week, the pair lost 0.38%.
The pair is likely to find support at the 1.3500 level and resistance at 1.3601, the high of June 10.
The single currency has weakened broadly since the European Central Bank cut rates to record lows earlier this month, in order to combat the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area.
Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, amid fears over the impact of reduced oil supply from one of the world’s largest producers on global economic growth.
The dollar was little changed after a report showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.
Elsewhere Friday, the euro slumped to one-and-a-half year lows against the stronger pound, with EUR/GBP down 0.30% to 0.7981 late Friday, extending the week’s losses to 1.32%.
Sterling strengthened broadly after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Thursday that U.K. interest rates could rise sooner than investors expect.
The euro edged higher against the yen, with EUR/JPY rising 0.26% to 138.18, not far from the four month low of 137.71 struck in the previous session. For the week, the pair lost 0.81%.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Monday’s preliminary report on euro zone inflation will also be closely watched.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
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Draghi Unites Euro Bulls With Bears Watching $1.35
The over/under for Mario Draghi, and the euro-zone recovery, is $1.35.
That’s the euro rate that dealers from UBS AG to JPMorgan Chase & Co. see as the dividing line between success and failure for the European Central Bank’s latest attempts to boost growth and avoid deflation.
The currency dipped to $1.3503 on June 5 after the ECB became the first major central bank to take one of its main interest rates negative. The $1.35 level is also just above this year’s low of $1.3477 set in February. A drop below that threshold would presage further losses, strategists say, while a sustained inability to breach it would open the door to a rally.
“$1.35 is very important -- it’s the ECB low, the D-Day low,” Niall O’Connor, a technical analyst at JPMorgan in New York, said by phone on June 12. The U.S. investment bank predicts a drop to $1.30 by year-end, from $1.3552 today. “From a short-term perspective, it’s a question of whether it’s range-bound or a more immediate downside break.”
Draghi and his fellow policy makers at the ECB are counting on a weaker currency to prevent deflation and help exporters. The central bank chief said in May that the strong euro is “a serious concern” at a time of slow consumer-price increases and sluggish growth. Data today may show the inflation rate’s stuck at a quarter of the ECB’s 2 percent target.
Trending Market
The $1.35 level is also significant because buy and sell orders may be clustered there, according to Richard Cochinos of Citigroup Inc., the world’s largest foreign-exchange trader.
While $1.35 isn’t “make or break,” it’s “getting a lot of attention,” the bank’s head of Americas Group-of-10 currency strategy in New York said by phone on June 13. “It’s a strong level in terms of sentiment, and it’s the low of the ECB day.”
In gambling, the term over/under refers to the expected combined score of a sporting event, with people placing bets wagering the actual score will either be higher or lower than that number.
The 18-nation euro has weakened 0.6 percent in June and 1.4 percent this year, and is down more than 3 percent from a 2 1/2-year high of $1.3993 reached on May 8.
“The key question is whether we’re in a trading range or a trending market,” Marc Chandler, the chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said in a June 10 phone interview. “$1.35 is the obvious level, that’s the low we saw in the immediate reaction to the ECB. It’d be serious if we fell through there.”
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Euro zone final CPI holds at 0.5% in May
Consumer price inflation in the euro zone was unchanged from a preliminary estimate in May, official data showed on Monday.
In a report, Eurostat said consumer price inflation rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% last month, in line with expectations and unchanged from a preliminary estimate. Euro zone inflation rose by 0.7% in April.
The rate remains firmly below the European Central Bank's target of near but just below 2%.
Month-over-month, consumer prices inched down 0.1% last month, meeting forecasts and following a 0.2% increase in April.
Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in May, meeting forecasts and unchanged from an initial estimate.
Following the release of the data, the euro held on to losses against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD shedding 0.11% to trade at 1.3525.
Meanwhile, European stock markets remained lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.3%, London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.1%, while Germany's DAX slumped 0.2%.
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