Eur/usd - page 222
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German Factory Orders Rebound Sharply in Dec
Factory orders in the euro zone's largest economy accelerated in December, more than markets had expected, a report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology revealed on Thursday.
Industrial orders in the euro area's number one economy powerhouse rose 4.2% in the final month of the year, measured on a monthly and seasonally adjusted basis, while analysts had expected the reading to post a 1.5% increase. In the prior month, the gauge declined 2.4%.
The seasonally adjusted figure measures total manufacturing orders received by producers of capital, intermediate and consumer goods in the country.
On a yearly basis, the gauge added 3.4% in the reported month, after posting a negative 0.4% growth in the previous month, measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Markets had projected an increase of 0.7% year-on-year in December.
Manufacturing PMI easing in January
Positive sentiment among German purchasing managers slightly eased in the first month of 2015 , according to the latest data from Markit Economics published on Monday.
Factories in Germany slowed their activity in January, more than flash estimates suggested, and the closely watched Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for German manufacturing declined to 50.9 in the first month in the year, down from December's 51.2.
ZEW, Ifo Indices
Meanwhile, German analysts and investors were notably more optimistic about the prospects for the euro zone's largest economy in January, as the fresh ZEW index figures staged another in a series of rebounds, hitting the highest level since February 2014.
The ZEW index, measuring investor sentiment for the next six months and reflecting the difference between the share of optimists and pessimists, rose to 48.4 in January from the 34.9 booked for December, rebounding further from the lows seen in October.
The rising optimism was later confirmed by the German Ifo Business Climate Index that showed business sentiment among Germany's top business executives remained positive in January.
The indicator, which is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers, edged up to 106.7 in the reported period, while a reading of 106.5 had been expected after December's 105.5.
source
EURUSD fell during the course of yesterday session after reaching a daily resistance. The pair is still trading above the 10-day moving average and should stay in range bound trading until Friday waiting for the NFP data.
ECB's Weidmann: Greece Decided to Stop Cooperating With Troika
Greece’s decision to stop cooperating with the Troika shows a difficulty in accepting European influence on national policy, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Thursday.
"Overcoming a crisis is more a marathon than a sprint," he told journalists in a speech in Italy's Venice.
Euro zone states remain fully responsible for the consequences of their own fiscal decisions, he claimed, contributing to the boiling discussion surrounding the recently-formed Greek cabinet's efforts to deal with Greece's debt.
"If markets see the European project entailing mutual financial assistance, doubts over a country’s solvency could spread," he claimed.
QE skeptical
Reiterating his anti-QE stance, he said that the newest stimulus from the bank could weaken incentives for reforms, stressing that "structural problems need structural measures".
The currency bloc is not in danger of prolonged deflation, he added.
His comments came after the bank suspended on Wednesday a waiver allowing Greek banks to use government debt as collateral for loans, which had been granted because of Greece's dire economic situation.
Speaking for business daily Boersen Zeitung in a story published earlier in the day, he said that the ECB should use strict standards in granting emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to banks.
the pair has formed a very good daily support and resistance which keep bouncing between them. breaking either 1.1485 as a resistance or 1.1340 as a support will decide the next move of the pair.
German Industrial Production Expands at Slow Pace in December
The industrial data from the euro area's powerhouse, Germany, pointed to slowly improving conditions in the given sector in December, according to the latest report from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) released on Friday.
Industrial output in Germany rose 0.1% in the reported period, seasonally adjusted, after reporting a revised 0.1% advance in the preceding month, according to Destatis. Market analysts had expected 0.4% growth.
In annual terms, production fell 0.7% in the final month of the year, compared to a revised 0.3% decrease seen in the previous month, while markets had projected 0.3% negative growth.
The gauge measures the volume change in output of factories, mines and utilities in Germany.
Sharp rebound in factory orders
Meanwhile, factory orders in Germany nicely rebounded in December when measured on a monthly and seasonally adjusted basis, official data revealed on Thursday.
Industrial orders in the euro area's number one economy powerhouse rose 4.2% in the final month of the year, measured on a monthly and seasonally adjusted basis.
On a yearly basis, the gauge added 3.4% in the reported month, measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
source
EURUSD rose during the course of yesterday session, as the market bounced from the 10-day moving average and close into a daily resistance zone. All eyes today turn to the all-important U.S jobs report where we can expect high volatility.
EUR/USD broke the support and need to stabilize under to confirm the direction. have a good weekend everyone!
EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 9, 2015
The EUR/USD pair tried to break out above the 1.15 handle this week, but as you can see ran into far too much resistance and turned back around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign and we believe that a break below the bottom of it should bring in sellers back into the market. At that point time we would anticipate a move down to the 1.10 level as it is the next large, round, psychologically significant number, but ultimately we will probably go even lower than that given enough time. Rallies continue to offer selling opportunities.
EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 9-13
EUR/USD had an exciting week in which it staged a nice recovery, but the road was certainly bumpy. GDP figures stand out in this week’s trading and Greece will not be too far from the headlines. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Greece refused to move away from the headlines. Greece’s finance minister is touring European capitals. While smiles are seen on the outside, the decision of the ECB to stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral hurt the country and the euro: some say the chances of a Grexit are higher than in 2012. European figures were OK with improving PMIs. In the US, a streak of bad figures triggered a temporary yet sharp USD sell off. Factory orders were the straw that broke the camel’s back and. However, things changed with a grand finale: a superb NFP report showed 257K jobs gained, upwards revisions and big bounce in wages.
* All times are GMT
source
EU Preview: BoE Inflation Soup and Euro Zone Q4 GDP Mix
The Bank of England (BoE) will publish its Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday, while Governor Mark Carney will answer reporters' questions on the bank’s latest forecasts for growth and inflation at a press conference.
The BoE kept its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5% on February 5. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes from January indicated that revisions to both the near and medium-term inflation outlook can be expected within the new forecasts. Given the BoE's primary remit of guarding over consumer prices, the revisions to the inflation outlook should offer hints at the central bank's future path of interest rates.
At the January MPC meeting, policymakers saw more risk to near-term inflation on the downside, saying cheaper oil and lower import prices may persist for longer than had been expected.
Second, the MPC argued, the sharply falling market interest rates passing through to lower fixed-rate mortgages should result in a demand surge in 2015, were the BoE base interest rate to follow market expectations. Third, the early signs of pick-up in average weekly earnings in the private sector may suggest slack in the labor market has been diminishing faster, or that the level of slack is lower than estimated.
BoE Inflation Report
"While the Bank of England will undoubtedly cut its near-term inflation forecasts appreciably, if it forecasts that inflation could bounce back more quickly further out (for example due to lower near-term inflation stimulating consumer spending) that would imply that interest rates may need to rise before the end of this year," Howard Archer, chief UK & European Economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note to clients.
"However, if the Bank of England sees consumer price inflation around 2.0% on a two-year horizon and then stabilizing around that level, it will suggest that interest rates are likely to stay at 0.50% at least until early-2016," Howard Archer concluded.
"The projections of the MPC in respect of GDP growth and inflation incorporate a multitude of factors, many of which are quite unpredictable, meaning the members have no idea really what broth will result," WBP Online writes, reminding us of the fact that political considerations before the May 2015 elections and maddening oil prices, among other factors, contribute to the puzzle when trying to read further BoE monetary plans.
"Everything has to be added at the right moment and in the right measure. Add too much political uncertainty and the dish might sour, be too sparing on investment and it won't cook through, while flashes of geopolitical fuel also mean the MPC has to regulate the temperature constantly for risk of overheating."
Q4 GDP estimates
"For the first time since the financial crisis in 2008-09, the economies of all European Union Member States are expected to grow again this year, according to the 2015 Winter Economic Forecast," the European Commission (EC) said in the document released on Thursday.
"Over the course of this year, economic activity is expected to pick up moderately in the EU and in the euro area, before accelerating further in 2016. Growth this year is forecast to rise to 1.7% for the EU as a whole and to 1.3% for the euro area. In 2016, annual growth should reach 2.1% and 1.9% respectively, on the back of strengthened domestic and foreign demand, very accommodative monetary policy and a broadly neutral fiscal stance," the EC predicts for this year.
It means that fourth-quarter 2014 GDP results should already show some signs of improvement and budding growth.
UK's The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's GDP estimate will be published on Tuesday, while a set of preliminary Q4 2014 GDP data for Germany, France, Italy, Greece and the euro zone will be released on Friday.
The European Union's (EU) statistics office will publish the first estimate for fourth-quarter (Q3) GDP in Europe. Market analysts forecast growth of 0.2%, quarter-on-quarter, for Q4 after the EU economy added 0.2% in the three months through September and 0.8% on an annual basis.
France is expected to add 0.1% in Q4 GDP, on a quarterly basis, after seeing 0.3% growth in Q3, and 0.3% year-on-year, after 0.4% earlier, the same as in the previous period.
Germany is expected to report 0.3% GDP growth in the final quarter of the year, quarter-on-quarter, after 0.1% in Q3 and 1.2% when measured annually.
Italy is seen as stagnating in Q4, quarter-on-quarter, after 0.1% contraction in Q3, while contracting 0.4% annually after an even bigger 0.5% contraction in Q3.
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