T101 basket trading system - math analysis - page 18

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Yochanan Gerbi
612
Yochanan Gerbi  

Basket_bull

NobbyC:
Can anyone here translate v8.6 to English.

Hi, did somebody test the v8.6?

Please, reply..

Aleksey
339
Aleksey  

nobody.....

E2U
5
E2U  

BasketBull

I have tested BasketBull 8.6

I gave up and I'm waiting for a new version. Coming soon.

I was testing “open right only” and I used Steve's Multi purpose trade manager for fast cash.

BE on 13 euro and trailing stop at 20 euro, trail 50%

It had worked well most of the time if BasketBull had open orders in opposite direction.

When BasketBull went long it should have been short order instead, and opposite.

ajentha
15
ajentha  

Basket Bull Doing well

Please update for new version and best setting

Files:
jey
6
jey  
NobbyC:
I want to share the greatest indicator ever for Basket Trading.

I have already posted it in FF and thought i would post it here as well.

Setup

Place the indicator on any chart

You will see a green ## T101 ## Label at the bottom right

Go to the top left of your mt4 page and select File/Open Offline folder and open the T101 chart.

You will now have a Combined Basket Currency chart open to add indicators as you please.

Please note that this is not my indicator and credit must go to the author.

Nobby, does this indy include all 14 pairs in the same direction? Means this is composite pair for all teh 14 pairs in the basket?

harmonie
3
harmonie  

Do any?

Sorry for bad English.

Continued someone with this system? And what were the results?

vosterfxandy
58
vosterfxandy  
Azerus:
nobody.....

anybody???

NobbyC
5
NobbyC  
jey:
Nobby, does this indy include all 14 pairs in the same direction? Means this is composite pair for all teh 14 pairs in the basket?

Hey Jey

That is correct. The indicator uses the "Sum of" the 14 pairs to create the offline charts candles

.

I found the best settings to be on the 8 pair basket.

If you go into the code you will see a number of "case" in the code.

You can input your desired "case" number into the "dialogue box"

e.g. if you only want 4 pairs then you input 4 into the "Basket" of the "dialogue box". If it is not your desired 4 pairs then you can change them in the "case"4 of the code. (or change any case pairs )Once changed press the compile button.

You should then get a "0 error(s), 0 warning(s)"

at the bottom of the page.

Close MetaEditor and Restart MT4.

Regards

arobenson
3
arobenson  

Many thanks for your contribution

Hi I am new to Forex trading and have been following the T101 system with a lot of interest for about 2months but because I dont have instuctions how to use it propely ive been a bit lost at time, I really appreciate all how have endlessly contributed to the development of this system. I would like if I can have the instructions on how to trade with version 7 or 8 - many thanks

echelon4x:
Hi Guys,

I was conscious of having "hijacked" Nopik's thread to a degree.

I think that the mods. can safely split the thread into two from the point of my first post - the latter half of the thread being transferred to "BasketBull - T101 System EA" or something similar.

Are you aware that Version 8 of basketbull has been released with a few tweaks and this time the indicators run from the Daily timeframe ? I'm now running this version in myfxbook stats., however in the changeover, v7 entered some trades which I manually closed at a loss before installing v8.

I've attached the English version.
jgelsh
3
jgelsh  

101 permutations

Nopik:
Continuation:

For example, you could switch direction of gbpusd, audjpy, nzdusd and usdchf to get resulting 4xeurjpy trade, straight, with no exposure in other currencies.

Then, you can trade just 0.1 lot, to reduce drawdown, margin and profit

Also, this will be good trend reversal indicator for eur/jpy. Of course your group A cannot consist of just 7 buys (or sells), it will need 3 buys+4 sells on the appropriate pairs (or 4sells+3buys). Necessary math for this is your homework

There was also another interesting variation, when you enter only in topmost/bottommost 4 pairs, not 7. I did not analyzed this, but seems like subset of this system, with the remaining 6 pairs being just additional indicator.

Ok, lets move further - the hedge imperfection. Let assume that our IA is perfectly hedged. Then, everything above is definitely true. Lets assume that you entered 14 trades into 7 currencies (eur, usd, chf, jpy, aud, nzd and gbp), having effective exposure being zero on all of them (i.e. you bought 10000 eur and sold 10000 eur).

In this case, the cumulative profit on your IA will not move with the prices, it will be affected only by swaps. Also, you'll get better cycles, I think, without being biased towards any currency.

Now, lets assume that on your IA you bought slightly more eur, e.g. 10500, and sold slightly less usd, e.g. 9500. So, your total exposure is not 0 anymore, you are 500 units long into eur/usd now (bought at 1.0 rate). Of course this is not easy to construct such portfolio on MT4. On Oanda it is much easier, as they offer trade sizes of 1 unit, which is equal to 0.00001 lot. But, you can just go to bank and buy 9500 eur in bank notes

Anyway, lets analyze how such theoretical portfolio would behave. Surely, the cumulative profit would go up and down, oscillating for some time, responding closely to eur/usd price. If the eur/usd price would wander off, your IA total profit would stop oscillating and just show big number on either side of zero. But the idea of this system is to keep IA trades oscillating as much as possible, when this stops happening, you cant get any serious profit from this method.

So, basically such IA, and its cumulative profit will be working as oscillator showing when eur/usd is overbought/oversold. In the original system the hedge was not just 500 eur/usd, it was more complex, and varying over time. I did not calculated this, but I suspect that it is related to eur/jpy as well, since there is a lot of reports of this profit being good indicator, for example this:

"I saw a very interesting correlation between bottom number on the IA and signal. The magic number seem to be -$72.00. Whenever the loss exceeds 72 dol on IA go short and vice versa. I made at least 15 trades with this idea and everyone made money.Not sure why there is so much correlation with that number. Or may be just a coincidence." (EStrader, post #1633)

The easiest way would be to go to Oanda, open 14 buys, 100000 each, and take a look on exposure tab to see what is the final exposure. I did not go through it yet, but will do later. But if any of you can test it earlier, results (preferably with some screenshot) will be welcomed.

Now, next thought. People tend posting that eurusd+usdchf tend to be close to each other in the slots. Also, pairs like gbpusd+gbpjpy, eurusd+eurjpy, audusd+usdjpy tend to repel from each other. (Hndyman, #1830, and Trader101 in other posts, #1741).

Why is that? Why some pairs tend to be close and other tend to repel?

Lets analyze gbpusd+gbpjpy. What happens when usd/jpy sharply goes upward? Usd is gaining strength, jpy is losing. If gbp does not move in the same time, gbp/usd will go down and gbp/jpy will go up. So, they repel. What if usd/jpy sharply goes downward? They repel each other again, in the reverse direction. They stay next to each other only if usd/jpy stays in place. And usd/jpy is quite volatile pair, does make big moves. QED. Eur/chf is much more quiet, no big moves there, usually, hence, eur/usd and usd/chf stay to each other, influenced mostly by usd strength.

Ok, another variation, last one for today, lets name it '101 permutations'.

For simplification, lets use 4 pairs instead of 14. My list will be:

eur/usd, usd/chf, gbp/chf, eur/gbp.

Long eur/usd and usd/chf. Short gbp/chf and eur/gbp, so they are hedged.

Now, if you sort them by profit, they might order themselves in 24 different possible combinations. Lets suppose that we had a luck and after some time, in moment t0, they ordered in such way, that makes sells at top and buys at bottom, in this particular order: gbp/chf, eur/gbp, eur/usd, usd/chf, from top to bottom. Open such basket immediately. So, we have long on all pairs. Then, wait until at least pair of them jump, and there will be different order, even if still they will be polarized with buys at bottom. Open such combination as well. Then, wait for next jump and next configuration. If we already bought given configuration, do not buy it again. For example, if we'll see such order: eur/usd, gbp/chf, usd/chf, eur/gbp, we buy respective basket, if not bought already. By 'buying respective basket' i mean opening reversed position of top 2 slots and straight position of bottom 2 slots, so here it would be eur/usd short, gbp/chf long, usd/chf long, eur/gbp short.

Eventually, after some time, we'll see each of 24 combinations, and bought respective basket again, so we have 24*4=96 trades in total, 48 buys and 48 sells, 12 buys+12 sells on each pair. By definition, each buy will be at lower price than the sell. So, we have 48 buy+sell pairs, each of them captured positive profit. Close all of them, reset IA, and start from the beginning.

Nice, isnt it?

Of course the above is naive, the obvious optimization is to close opposing baskets immediately as they occur, so you close them earlier, pay smaller spread, and continue using this system forever. I'll write some small EA for this to see how big drawdowns we'll see along the way..

Hi -

read your explanation of 101 permutations and found it interesting - have you been trading it - what have the results been - have you made any improvments or had any additional insights - thanks - jgelsh

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