Eurusd/gbpusd - page 1969
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Count on whipsaw
You are probably right : if brokers go in close only mode, then the price must whipsaw (unless brokers continue trading against traders that can not open new positions - we shall see what kind of brokers we have now)
Long to short ratios before the market open :
EURUSD over 40%. A lot of positions liquidated - no volume
EUR/USD – big levels to watch on Greek crisis
The Greek crisis is deteriorating quickly during the weekend. Extreme EUR/USD volatility is on the cards.
What levels should we watch out for? Here is a guide to the big levels for euro/dollar:
Quick background: The downturn began with the breakup of negotiations and the declaration of a referendum after markets closed on Friday. This continued with a rejection of a temporary extension of the bailout on Saturday and with a decision by the ECB not to raise the cap.
EUR/USD levels
Immediate support awaits at the lows just before the crisis erupted: 1.1130. Real support awaits at 1.1050, which was a clear cap during March and April, later switched to resistance and vice versa. The line is a clear separator of ranges, but in case of a quick deterioration, we should certainly look lower.
The low of 1.0820 seen in mid May, from where the pair began a swift recovery, is another line of importance. 1.0660, which cushioned the pair twice in April, is another important line. Below, 1.0520 was another line of support back in April, but weaker than the previous ones.
1.0460 is a critical low: it was seen in March and was the lowest level in 12 years. Yes, since 2003. A breach of this line would be an extreme move, but nothing can be ruled out on thin liquidity the specter of a Grexit.
From here on, we are at levels last seen over a decade ago. We have some support at 1.0360: this was the low point in January 2003. Further down, 1.0170 worked as resistance back in November 2012. It is close to the swing high of 1.0208 seen in July of that year.
And of course, the roundest level is EUR/USD parity. The buzzword can become reality in an extreme scenario. Even lower, some analysts are talking about future levels of 0.98 or 0.95 but time-frames vary.
On the upside, we should also look at levels. It’s important that events are moving fast and that forex trading is not a one way street.
1.1290 is immediate resistance: it capped the pair in April and supported it in June. 1.1467 is the post-crash high and a very strong level.
Beyond 1.15, we find 1..1680, that held capped a failed recovery attempt and there isn’t much between here and 1.20.
read more
I don't think that any levels forecast is of any use - HFTs are going to make a mess of the market (some of the brokers have HFT companies) - no trading period ahead of us, since only HFTs can profit from no liquidity at all
Gap down - 1.1019 for EURUSD right now. If it breaks 1.1000 anything can happen
A Greek bank holiday on Monday was announced today, there are rumors about it may extend for the whole week. The news could be extremely bearish for Eur/Usd.
Level 1.1000 being heavily tested now (I closed my position though - enough is enough
)
selling like the Greeks taking their money out of the banks
So far nothing out of the ordinary : there is a gap, but gap landed exactly on the long term bearish support/resistance. Both options possible : a bounce and a break even lower. It will depend on the flow of the news