Jet's Personal Trading Journal - page 5
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I'm gonna convert my dollar-denominated assets to cigarettes, weed and alcohol, because those are going to be the only hot commodities with any demand curve.
That's right, hedges against falling... uh... everything.
Oh yeah, and cyanide so you can euthanise yourself afterwardI got 5 on the weed and cigarettes
I'm placing 5 ciggys short on the break of that alcohol support.
Hehehehehe.
I have already started this business and opened a branch in Iraq, I am waiting for the approvals and will soon make a grand opening around the world
YouTube - Iraqi street traders selling hashish and Viagra to soldiers
I am planning to enter the markets full steam monday. I hope there are markets left to trade!! Check this out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP5mpMUORBWM&refer=home
I am attaching a sample trades report. From now on, this is what it is going to look like.
The image is a little small to read.
I do like the information that is provided though, it seems very clear and shows all the pertinent info.
Ha, you are right, it is very small. Damn. I don't know why. Other places I post don't have that problem...I'll have to keep this in mind next time I post here.
Thanks for the info.
The image is a little small to read. I do like the information that is provided though, it seems very clear and shows all the pertinent info.
An important point to think about.
I have not posted anything in my Journal because there is nothing to post. Why? Well, I have been reading some academic books which address trading in scientific exercise and show where the Black-Scholes comes out of in terms of Markov chains as well as some other prominent models. The book started out with an argument that I summarize as follows: Chartists don't know what the hell they are talking about and technical analysis from that stand point is as good as tossing a coin. It may even be better as it will save you the anguish of trying to figure out why a certain price formation didn't lead to what you expected. What is his empirical argument for this? Very simple: The author created a random number engine and joined the dots to produce a chart of random numbers. The charts attached is what we are talking about. He than took some of those charts to "expert" chartists and asked them to give their opinion. One guy said: "Oooh we are obviously forming a bottom here and I see a breakout taking place at the top. What is that stock because this baby is going to sky rocket another 15%! Let's get in on it!" When he was told that actually the numbers were produced were random and the probability of the next number to be lower is the same as for it to be higher, the chartist was very offended to say the least...
The point is that you can't tell apart a chart created by random numbers and a market chart. If you can't tell the difference and your indicators can't either, how the hell are you suppose to make a stable income unless you rely on a progressive money management system? I think this is a very important point and it is hard to refute the fact that chart patterns are seen in randomly generated charts so they cannot bear any sort of significance in predicting where the price is going next. If that is the case, you may be better of tossing a coin...
What do you think?
I think it is part rubbish and part truth.
Part Rubbish:
Random number generator do not take into affect of what actually move the markets and it does not take into account what has happened before. Since we know that markets are not completely random, we can safe say this is not the same comparison. It is a highly theoretical scenario, and an offbase comparison designed to make the author seem correct, when in actuality, he is wrong.
Markets move are based on interest rates, and the macroeconomics of the different pairs. The price also remembers the area where support and resistance are in the past because humans are always drawn to areas where their entries are.
Part Truth:
A lot internet "traders" think they can predict market movement by looking at a price chart. Much like the chartist in that scenario. But that is because these "traders" and this particular chartist is only focused on price action. Tunnel vision. And the author of the theory may not have been with successful traders that do not only use price action.
Conclusion:
Markets are not random. It may seem random to people who only use price action and prediction models. But the successful traders understand this is not the case, and this is where their edge is to make profit. For example, in the stock market, there are people who can trade only with the DOM.
Final Verdict.
Kenny Rogers does not approve of random number generators. That is all.