I'm RICH! The Holy Grail! - page 13
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This is a good summation of the disadvantages of a 'top-down' mtf approach. I just wanted to point out you can use reverse logic mtf 'bottom-up' approach where trades taken on the lower time-frame become longer term trades if wider timeframe confirms/breaks trendline etc etc... As Igor mentions, 'top-down' approach does have advantage of filter in trend (but can have potential to filter out a lot on reversals). Definitely a good disciplined trend trading method but disadvantage happens when market makes very fast reversal on lower timeframe and widerframe is very slow to catch up. Apart from that there are advantages of lowering risk ratio of trading wider timeframe by entering in confluence with the lower timeframe and I believe lower timeframe can help filter wider timeframe bad signals and vice versa.
Yes,you are absolutely right,trading several tfs confluence reduces risk,they must have a proportion..ie trading W1 and m5 will probably won`t make it(you never know
)..I have found that trading 4:1 to 6:1 tfs relationships works well...specially h1-h4 or m15-h1...I usually trade m15 signals in direction of h1..if h4 disagrees I just halve the position size..
All reversals start on one tick..but the probablity of that happening against you is way higher when you have 2 inmediate tfs above your entry tf against you,than when you have them in your favour.
Hi Simba,
I'm not gonna say that I don't agree with you because that would be the same as saying you are wrong.....so I only would like to give my point of vieuw on this one....
If one takes severall time frames then the bigger time frame is going to over rule the smaller ones. Meaning one can only trade if the biggest TF is in place.
That is so called a good aproach when price is in a trend and that one would only trade according that trend. Wich will filter out some of the false trades.
But it has immediatly a disadvantge that one will miss out some of the smaller moves that would also lead to profit if one would have looked only to the smallest TF and that still would represent trend on that smaller TF.
The 1H TF can be in a down trend but if one would look to a 5min one can easely see moves of 50pips up even if that 1H is in a downtrend.
One will also miss out on all the reversals of trend that would lead on the smaller TF's to nice profits. But one needs to wait till the biggest TF showed also that reversal and that will lead to missing out nice potential profits.
Firm and reliable tops and bottom show a very strong movement. If a reliable top is made price has the tendency to shoot of strongely the opposite way.
The smaller TF would catch that move where if you need to wait till the biggest TF confirms then one looses a part of that potential.
If one arives in a ranging market that would have the biggest effect on the biggest TF then one will feel he can only start to trade when that biggest TF is in place and that he will buy on tops and sell on bottoms.
The easiest way to see this and understand this priciple is by placing MA's that represent each TF on the smallest TF.
Even that one would not use MA's but only to understand and see it visually.
Lets say that one would use a 25MA on the 5min. You place also the 150MA on that 5min TF that would represent the 25MA on the 30min. and a 300MA who would represent the 25MA on the 1H TF.
If price is in a real nice trend for ex. down trend then there is no problem on the contrary the 300MA will show down all the way and if one trades on the smaller MA's coming into place to the down side that will give nice entrys after the price retraced up on the big TF and is comming back down.
But the serious problem starts when one gets in a sort of a range where the 300MA gets in place to go long and on that moment the move is finshed and vice versa and this over longer period of time.
Emotionaly you gonna suffer on this because one would see that if one would have trades solely on that 5min TF, one would still make profits. But combined with that biggest TF one feels that he misses out on all the profits that were possible to take and only gets the losses. Or that one can enter at the end of the moves. Wich leads to quite some frustrations and blaming it on other TF's.
And frustration is what we need to avoid at all cost in trading.
So personally I depend more on making a system on only 1 TF. Doesn't matter wich one. But by putting everything is such a way that you find a balance on that TF between not to late in the market and filtering out some of the false trades and noise and beeing quick enough in the market so one still can take nice profits without feeling that other ran away with the biggest chunck of the cake.
Of course losses will still be there because I make it sound easy but it will lead to less frustration. One can find less reason or elements to blame it one (this TF was not in place or I needed to wait on that TF and when it was in place then it was already to late....etc..).
When one looks continiously to severall TF's one will have continiously the feeling that today it was better to trade this TF and the day after one has the feeling to trade an other TF...etc...
Concentrating on only one TF takes away those frustrations.
I find it better not only to find a profitable system but a system that gives as least frustrations possible. Certainly when one descided to trade a system over a long period of time. And addapt the system or values or parameters to that single TF if the avg. daily ranges would start to change dramaticly.
Bottom line is that personally I learned that the advantages of trading on multiple TF's don't weight up to the disadvantages.
As said Simba only my opinion.
Regards...iGoR
PS. Did you know that this year again a belgium beer is called out as best beer in the world... "Karmeliet"Hi iGor,
Yes I won`t disagree with you (specially about the beers
)...trading is very personal,so everybody has to trade what he feels comfortable and believe in..so,I totally agree with your assessment about personally having found one tf the best way to systemize your "model" of the market.
Personally,I couldn`t trade single tf anymore,even when I scalp in m1...I need at least the m5 to be starting a favourable cycle and m15 either in favour or "flattening" the slope of the contrary cycle...
In any case,your use of a slope direction line(or whatever you use now) with high period settings is a good attempt to cover this issue...on a single tf.
Since this is personal,I suggest that any member that wants to improve his trading does the following a few minutes during the week end..JUST check your good and bad trades of the week,then,check how many of the bad ones would have been avoided by either switching up tf(or adding a "higher period " filter,higher as in multiply by 3 to 5 your usual settings) as trendfilter and how many of the good ones would have been "no entries" for the same reason...Do this for a few weeks and decide about using or not higher tfs based on your personal "feeling" about this...you will be surprised....either way
Igor,I used to go to Antwerpen years ago...I loved the city and its community,if I ever go back I will pm you..but then,start cooling beers
could be, but we might get chopped in places like this:
if wait price cross Ma - in most cases it newer touches it...
hmmm, riddles...You can solve that problem by splitting entries in 2 or 3 so when price moves against you..and trend is still in,you add,either by obos at lower tf or by fibo retracements,etc...of course ,the most important issue is...
...position SIZE
EDIT:Oh...and balls of steel...
Is there any indi can shows us TF of every 10 mins?
yes follow the arrow
My prediction is like this. Just based on pattern formed on every TF.
Every TF have it own pattern and each pattern will be formed in the same way. Just a prediction
Is there the way we can view chart for TF 10mins, 20 mins,40 mins, 50 mins and so on (gap every 10 mins) so that more reliable prediction can be made (just tought)For the custom candle time you can use the attached indicator
The Final Holy Grail!
It all started when I tried to find a strategy that makes positive results every month, thereafter, I developed it for weeks with a positive result until I created a 100% winning strategy.
I know, nobody will believe me here, so do I, in the beginning; after months and months of trial on demo accounts and real accounts, i finished by believing in this strategy.
The only reason that prompted me to open this thread is to show everyone that Holy Grail does exist and all that you have to do is to open your mind.
So please: No criticizes before the end of the month of May.
Let the results talk for me.
ok but where are the results?
They're Coming, from Wednesday 5:00 a.m. GMT until the end of May
Please, no results, just post the strategy, if you do not wish to share then please do not create a thread that goes on and on for weeks showing all your super results and nothing else, it does not help other traders.
Yes looks like a spammer has posted the same on FX Fisherman forum, results that can be doctored mean nothing as I said there. Without the strategy or posting in advance your entries and exits it means zilch