Yep, we must always confirm with the higher timeframes, that is the key! The 30 min timeframe is a nice one and is great to trade in and out of the price swings on the larger timeframes.
using the 4h tf I don't see how you worked out your entry, it appears you have entered at a potential LH.
Here, i have marked on the series of LL's and LH's on the chart. The short was taken with respect to this 4hr chart, which is clearly in a downtrend!
The short was taken from the second touch of that old support area, which is clearly visible on the 1 hour chart.
If you are long, then fine, everyone sees things different, if not, the market would be a boring place, and completely untradeable!
If it gets down there, i will be looking to scale out at the 1906 area, where price bounced on the hourly. Then move stop to BE and look for main target of 1813 area, which is the 4hr target. But 1906 will be about 60 pips, so not a bad area to pare some profits. Then again, it could find support at 50 and come bak up and stop me out, if it does, then so be it!
thanks for clarifying things. Have a good day.
Price hit it once, which can be seen on the hourly, it has since made a stop run on any early shorts with the second spike up. We now have an inverted hammer on the 1hr.
I am not saying that this will be a winning trade, but i am simply looking for opps that are high probability. IMO, given Bubbles technique, this looks like it has a high prob of rebounding off this level and continuing in the major direction of the 4hr and daily trend.
If it doesn't, then we lose and its on to the next one!!
thanks it is nice and clear explanation ..i think you will be right
a bit of tricky one this one , initially your analysis is correct , my only concern here is that coming up from the low we have some supports that were taken out during the swing down , which suggest that this trade may be a correction from the swing up from the low even so considering your entry point and your t/p it looks like its turned out ok my own thoughts on this would of been to stand aside.
The eurjpy gave a very good signal this morning with a clearly defined entry with a second retest into its range.
Nice trade there Bubble. If you get time, would you mind posting a chart identifying what significant supports were taken out, so i can learn from this?
I watched the action for hours today and was frustrasted not to find an entry. Take GBPUSD, a big move though only a few minor retraces within, not exactly troughs. All the retraces seem to have been over by the next candle.
Can you add some comments about how we should deal with a session like today, when it shoots away ? I guess the clue to check the type of trend (from the beginning of the thread) though I don't understand how this will change our trading activity.
I am thinking that moving down to the 15 or 5 min in this situation will show some entry points clearer.
That's trading I'm afraid. The best laid plans & all that
If prices don't play ball & set up within the confines of the particular strategy you're employing at that particular moment, then you aint gonna get positioned. No matter how hard or diligently you watch the market!
Someone else executing via a different method or following an alternative route will undoubtedly have got filled & caught the flow - again, fair enough!
You can't catch every move or prepare for every eventuality.
All youcan do, is ensure when prices click into place according to yourparameters, you're ready & able to take it on.
But even then, you aint gonna catch em all. The markets are a real pain in the ass sometimes.
I'd like to add something on this comment if I may? I'm not gonna dwell on it & certainly not going to lecture - what folks do with their money & trade accounts is their business!
But - be very, very carefulwhen attempting to execute on small timeframes in FX. If you're an experienced operator with a good platform engine, a very reliable ticker/squawk (market chatter) & pretty good reaction awareness, then you got a head start on the crowd.
This mornings activity is a very good example & ties in with your comment fx2007.
Having an awareness of where the probable lines of engagements were stacked this morning, & more importantly who were defending/watching them would have added a little more confidence to configuring a potential b/o set-up. The "chatter" stood up to the levels for sure & these insights very often do.
The 2 charts highlight bubble's earlier statement re: the lower support & the comments attachment helps tie the levels together.
Now I'm not saying you need this info to trade, nor am I suggesting it's relevant all the time - but quite often (in certain circumstances)... knowledge is power!
However, the longer you remain active & profitable in this business, & the more you remain faithful to a sensible, workable strategy, the more you'll begin to take advantage of those driving prices at certain levels by the very virtue of the fact you're following a well prepared, effectively researched & consistant strategy model.
This thread which bubble has kindly opened is aimed at offering an execution model which is based on sensible analysis with clear defined entry & risk management parameters. More often than not, it also mirrors the activity of those with strong influence on levels & zones.
Another one to chalk onto the observation map. Didn't take it personally, but nonetheless, it fits the criteria.
Canadian housing stats out later, which might offer some added spice - but this one is running with the overall long term bearish flows.