Impossible to predict the future - page 2

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drg00dvibe
589
drg00dvibe  
superbait:
I won't criticise your idea except you may know little about the market environment. There are four basic market conditions, namely trendy, choppy, range bouncing and flat.

In trendy market, you win if you choose the right trend, so your winning chances is 50%. In choppy market, your chances of winning is 0%.

In rang bouncing market, your chances of winning is also 0% and in the flat market condition, the little spike for up and down could range between 5 to 30 pips, so eventually your chances of winning is 0%.

Hence in total your chances of winning under the 4 market conditions is about 12.5% and losing chances is 87.5%. The winnign factor is 0.125 far below the 1.5 ( the norm factor ).

I agree with you wholeheartedly.. but in my experience I have found that it all depends on the timeframe when it comes to your percentage of possible wins in a choppy/flat/ranging/trending markets.

In a trending market I realize that you can trade any timeframe and you will have a 50% chance..

However in a choppy or ranging market, if you lower your TF to say 1 or 5M even 15M depending, and your technique is changed to a shorter more in and out strategy.. your chances are probably as high as 50% if you succumb to the idea that you will be jumping out of the trade with a very small gain. 1-10pips.

Flat market your right.. pretty much 0% -- but i've found that often a flat market precedes a large breakout sort of like the "calm before the storm". So if one can only be patient enough to wait for it to come to them!

John Seekers
793
John Seekers  
The state of the equity market, often referred to as a bull or a bear market, is of key importance for financial decisions and economic analyses. Its latent nature has led to several methods to identify past and current states of the market and forecast future states. These methods encompass semi-parametric rule-based methods and parametric regime-switching models. We compare these methods by new statistical and economic measures that take into account the latent nature of the market state. The statistical measure is based directly on the predictions, while the economic mea- sure is based on the utility that results when a risk-averse agent uses the predictions in an investment decision. Our application of this framework to the S&P500 shows that rule-based methods are preferable for (in-sample) identification of the market state, but regime-switching models for (out-of-sample) forecasting. In-sample only the direction of the market matters, but for forecasting both means and volatilities of returns are important. Both the statistical and the economic measures indicate that these differences are significant.
Afro-head
134
Afro-head  
Yeah..! You cannot predict the future and thus you cannot make fortune everytime. So you need to rely on market analysis to make more money.
whisperer
1881
whisperer  
But we are (predicting the future) all the time :)
vrashtekar
140
vrashtekar  
Don't predict just find opportunity to trade, Don't involve in flow of predictions(which is emotions) Just wait for price to come in your commendable area and hit it like a sniper. complete your job and go away. Trading is like war if you have enough funds you can fight till your ammunition(money) ends otherwise better to adopt limited and profitable trading
John Seekers
793
John Seekers  
When trading, investors make decisions based on not only the security and market variances but also the technical price range. However, academic literature investigating its properties is scarce. Better understandings of this risk measurement candidate are supposed to provide guidance for investors. In this paper, the statistical properties and dynamic structures of technical price range are investigated broadly with different index data, and some interesting facts are discovered: 1) the technical range volatility follows the normal distribution approximately; 2) the dynamic structure of the technical range volatility can be well described by a moving average model.

To test whether the TRV-MA model could well capture the dynamic structure of the technical price range volatility, empirical studies are performed on CAC40, DAX, FTSE, HS, NIKKEI225, S&P500, and STI. To evaluate the predicting ability of the TRV-MA model, a new criteria is proposed. Based on this new criteria, the TRV-MA model does provide sharp prediction. Interesting problems based on the technical range volatility are suggested in the conclusion, better understandings of these problems are supposed to provide better understandings of the market micro-structures.

According to our knowledge, this paper is the first one to investigate the statistical properties and the dynamics of technical range volatility.
Lazar Radimir
122
Lazar Radimir  
Yes, we are not a fortune tellers, we can’t predict it. We are traders we can analyse it and make a prognosis. With attention to all details that may affect the market we could make a good forecast where the price will go.
When you have all required information and of course the right Broker on your side, you will be able to make more profitable trades.
Abe Bonifaas
110
Abe Bonifaas  
We can try but unfortunately we could not forecast the future market behavior with 100% certainty. There might be situations when you could predict the price movement but even then you should not become overconfident and believe that you are unfaillable as there is always place for mistakes.
Oscar Martin
37
Oscar Martin  
It's all about statistics
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
109143
Sergey Golubev  
============

Forecasts and Filters

The beginning

  1. Forecasting indicators thread 
  2. Filters indicators thread

After

  1. forecast on Forex thread (small thread about the difference between the technical analysis, forecasts and the signals, about analysis from the brokers to be prohibited on the forum, and more).
  2. Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 thread

============

MetaTrader 4 Help
MetaTrader 4 Help
  • www.metatrader4.com
For making a decision to trade, reliable on-line information is necessary. For that, quotes and news are delivered at the terminal in the real-time mode. On basis of on-line delivered quotes, it is possible to analyze markets using technical indicators and line studies. Expert advisors allow to work off routine of observing markets and the own...
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