In trendy market, you win if you choose the right trend, so your winning chances is 50%. In choppy market, your chances of winning is 0%.
In rang bouncing market, your chances of winning is also 0% and in the flat market condition, the little spike for up and down could range between 5 to 30 pips, so eventually your chances of winning is 0%.
I agree with you wholeheartedly.. but in my experience I have found that it all depends on the timeframe when it comes to your percentage of possible wins in a choppy/flat/ranging/trending markets.
In a trending market I realize that you can trade any timeframe and you will have a 50% chance..
However in a choppy or ranging market, if you lower your TF to say 1 or 5M even 15M depending, and your technique is changed to a shorter more in and out strategy.. your chances are probably as high as 50% if you succumb to the idea that you will be jumping out of the trade with a very small gain. 1-10pips.
Flat market your right.. pretty much 0% -- but i've found that often a flat market precedes a large breakout sort of like the "calm before the storm". So if one can only be patient enough to wait for it to come to them!