Impossible to predict the future - page 2

[John Seekers]

The state of the equity market, often referred to as a bull or a bear market, is of key importance for financial decisions and economic analyses. Its latent nature has led to several methods to identify past and current states of the market and forecast future states. These methods encompass semi-parametric rule-based methods and parametric regime-switching models. We compare these methods by new statistical and economic measures that take into account the latent nature of the market state. The statistical measure is based directly on the predictions, while the economic mea- sure is based on the utility that results when a risk-averse agent uses the predictions in an investment decision. Our application of this framework to the S&P500 shows that rule-based methods are preferable for (in-sample) identification of the market state, but regime-switching models for (out-of-sample) forecasting. In-sample only the direction of the market matters, but for forecasting both means and volatilities of returns are important. Both the statistical and the economic measures indicate that these differences are significant.

[et_phonehome_2]

swall:
Hi everybody

I am beginning to think its impossible to predict the future so I thought of a new system and would like to hear your two cents

On the daily

Find three or four currencies with the lowest spread

Buy or sell them It really doesn't matter \

Put a 15 pt stop loss on each one

Check them once a day

After three days take your profits and hope it is more then your losses

I feel that I must give you my two cents worth on this since putting a SL of 15 PIPs will definitely kill you, and you will wind up with more losers than winners. I Know that you want to minimize your losses, but having such small S/L will not help you. No matter what, you will need to look at the chart inidcators from the top down TF to see the direction to get a good feel as to which way you should go. I have even putted in S/L of 50 PIPs, get stopped out, and then just to see the currency move in my direction latter on during the day. I find that the most important thing which will help you is to use Pivot Points to see where the current price action is....

Hope that helps....

[Afro-head]

Yeah..! You cannot predict the future and thus you cannot make fortune everytime. So you need to rely on market analysis to make more money.

[whisperer]

But we are (predicting the future) all the time :)

[vrashtekar]

Don't predict just find opportunity to trade, Don't involve in flow of predictions(which is emotions) Just wait for price to come in your commendable area and hit it like a sniper. complete your job and go away. Trading is like war if you have enough funds you can fight till your ammunition(money) ends otherwise better to adopt limited and profitable trading

[John Seekers]

When trading, investors make decisions based on not only the security and market variances but also the technical price range. However, academic literature investigating its properties is scarce. Better understandings of this risk measurement candidate are supposed to provide guidance for investors. In this paper, the statistical properties and dynamic structures of technical price range are investigated broadly with different index data, and some interesting facts are discovered: 1) the technical range volatility follows the normal distribution approximately; 2) the dynamic structure of the technical range volatility can be well described by a moving average model.

To test whether the TRV-MA model could well capture the dynamic structure of the technical price range volatility, empirical studies are performed on CAC40, DAX, FTSE, HS, NIKKEI225, S&P500, and STI. To evaluate the predicting ability of the TRV-MA model, a new criteria is proposed. Based on this new criteria, the TRV-MA model does provide sharp prediction. Interesting problems based on the technical range volatility are suggested in the conclusion, better understandings of these problems are supposed to provide better understandings of the market micro-structures.

According to our knowledge, this paper is the first one to investigate the statistical properties and the dynamics of technical range volatility.

[Lazar Radimir]

Yes, we are not a fortune tellers, we can’t predict it. We are traders we can analyse it and make a prognosis. With attention to all details that may affect the market we could make a good forecast where the price will go.
When you have all required information and of course the right Broker on your side, you will be able to make more profitable trades.

[Abe Bonifaas]

We can try but unfortunately we could not forecast the future market behavior with 100% certainty. There might be situations when you could predict the price movement but even then you should not become overconfident and believe that you are unfaillable as there is always place for mistakes.

[[Deleted]]

It's all about statistics

[Sergey Golubev]

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Forecasts and Filters

The beginning

1. Forecasting indicators thread 
2. Filters indicators thread

After

1. forecast on Forex thread (small thread about the difference between the technical analysis, forecasts and the signals, about analysis from the brokers to be prohibited on the forum, and more).
2. Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 thread

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