HedgeHog System & EA
I also wanted to post the following results as well, in showing the individual and overall results since April 16th. This system over time has approx 80 - 85% accuracy based on 00:00GMT (as you will read if you read the previously mentioned thread)... my results support the above stated results.
22:00 GMT is running at 85.71% and the 00:00 GMT is running at 86.25%...
Enclosed is a spreadsheet i use to keep track of net P/L. The main 7 pairs are listed to the left. Other pairs are listed to the right. The other pairs don't have as good of success, plus not all individual trades have been added in because they weren't that great.
Thanks For EA my friend,
This system don't have stop loss?.. is because whithout stop loss the drawdown became very fast...
What is the time frime and the best settings you found for this EA?
Thanks
Fast_crisIn the original system they didn't run a stop, but later in the thread they go from none, to 100 S/L to 80, then finally to a 50 S/L, which is what i run on all pairs. My TP are as indicated above...for the most part 10
As for the EA, the standard settings of 10 TP, 50 S/L and 00:00 GMT (4pm) are the best, but i have found it works on 2PM PST as well
As for time frames, this system can be attached to any timeframe, as it doesn't trade based on timeframe, but rather a 24 hour period. Almost all trades will close in 18 hours or less. The only pair i have found that lasts longer is the EurGbp.
Hope this helps,
Graham
Hi!
u can't win money on long time taking only 10TP and 50SL, even with 80% trades won.
Hi! u can't win money on long time taking only 10TP and 50SL, even with 80% trades won.
Normally i would agree with you, however if you understand the mathematics behind this system and the nature of doing Martingale (sp?) style trading, it can and so far has worked. I would recommend a good read of the link supplied on post #1, a look of the analysis of the EurUsd back to 1989, and the results posted in the above link, it does show tremendous promise. With a good EA programmed, more reliable backtesting is possible by any of us, which is the goal of this thread.
Thanx,
Graham
Loss: 20 * 50 = 500
20*50=1000 and therefore result will be negative.
20*50=1000 and therefore result will be negative.
Wow, I really do need some sleep.. haha
Don't mind me.
Edit: Apparently I don't know my multiplication tables... You can ignore this..
Gain: 80 * (10 - Spread = ~8) = 640
Loss: 20 * 50 = 500
------------------------
Net Profit: +140 .You guys are correct with your corrections. To use historical numbers back to 1989, the 80% would be closer to 90%, but lets use 85% just for kicks.
Gain: 85 * 10 actual TP = 850
Loss 15 * 50 = 750 loss
So on basics after spreads, there is a net profit, though not much.
However the key with this system is the fact that lot sizes don't stay linear. They use something called Martingale (sp?), or in laymans terms, lot scaling based on probabilities... let me explain...
With this type of hedging and a 10 TP and a 50 S/L, you always cash one side out in profit, so right away you have only a 40 S/L worth of exposure. That being said, the loss number above actually lowers to 15* 40 or 600.
Also because there is that 80-90% accuracy, you increase your next lot size the next day to replace the last trade. With such a high accuracy, the odds of 2 day of simultaneous losses in the same direction becomes 15% * 15% or 2.25% for the second day. It is like the probability of flipping a coin and getting 2 heads in a row (50% * 50% = 25%). If the trade still went 2 days losses, then the odds of 3 straight days becomes 15% * 15% * 15% = 0.34%...and so on...
That is why one needs to consider this system not just on the classical things like Stops and Limits, but the mathematics of probabilities based on historical analysis.
Just as a point of interest, currently i am running 2 tradestations on 7 pairs at 2 timeframes, and both timeframes are yielding around 85% accuracy each, thus confirming the historical stats.
Thanx,
Graham
You're doing some great work, it's very interesting. Martingaling isn't something I'm a huge fan of, but it does seem like it's worthwhile in this type of system, and the pitfalls of using it differ from that of other types of systems.
You guys are correct with your corrections. To use historical numbers back to 1989, the 80% would be closer to 90%, but lets use 85% just for kicks.
Gain: 85 * 10 actual TP = 850
Loss 15 * 50 = 750 loss
So on basics after spreads, there is a net profit, though not much.
However the key with this system is the fact that lot sizes don't stay linear. They use something called Martingale (sp?), or in laymans terms, lot scaling based on probabilities... let me explain...
With this type of hedging and a 10 TP and a 50 S/L, you always cash one side out in profit, so right away you have only a 40 S/L worth of exposure. That being said, the loss number above actually lowers to 15* 40 or 600.
Also because there is that 80-90% accuracy, you increase your next lot size the next day to replace the last trade. With such a high accuracy, the odds of 2 day of simultaneous losses in the same direction becomes 15% * 15% or 2.25% for the second day. It is like the probability of flipping a coin and getting 2 heads in a row (50% * 50% = 25%). If the trade still went 2 days losses, then the odds of 3 straight days becomes 15% * 15% * 15% = 0.34%...and so on...
That is why one needs to consider this system not just on the classical things like Stops and Limits, but the mathematics of probabilities based on historical analysis.
Just as a point of interest, currently i am running 2 tradestations on 7 pairs at 2 timeframes, and both timeframes are yielding around 85% accuracy each, thus confirming the historical stats.
Thanx,
Graham
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Hello all, i wanted to share a system that was shared on another site of which i have had good success in demo manual trades.
Here is the original link: http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16093&page=1&pp=8
The first post has the original rules, however the difference now is a 50 pip stop has been added. Here are the pairs i have found that work with it and their respected take profit.
Eur/Usd with 10 TP
Gbp/Usd with 10 TP
Usd/Chf with 10 TP
Usd/Jpy with 10 TP
Eur/Jpy with 12 TP
Gbp/Jpy with 15 TP
EurGbp with 10 TP
So far on FXDD using 1 lot starting trades (10$ /pip), a total of $6973 has been achieved at 22:00 and $7347 at 00:00 with the 7 pairs listed above on a demo account since the 16th of April.
The trades that i personally am having good success with are done at 22:00GMT (2pm PST) and 00:00GMT (4pm PST). Now for the 2pm i do them right after 2pm so that I don't get dinged the daily interest. The 4pm ones i do at 3:45pm so that they are in before the movement that sometimes happens at 4pm with Jpy based pairs.
Now the reason I am posting it here is to start work on an Expert Advisor, as there seems to be alot more successful programs/programmers here than anywhere else i have been.
Enclosed is EA version 1.1 In my opinion it is the best of the versions. The other versions can be found in the first 12 pages of the previously mentioned thread.
The main problem i have noticed with this EA is that it does not execute trades at either 22:00GMT or 00:00GMT on FXDD. I can get it to work at other times, but that doesn't help the system any. So any changes or input is greatly appreciated.
Thanx,
Graham