CatFx50 - page 722

nina
2768
nina  

Hi!

Next signal to go long on cable should be at 1,9490 ask with stop at 1,9450 for a shot to 1,9505 and 1,9538-48.

I'm in. I do not like this market though. Stop at 1,9480. It should be lower, but, as said, I do not like it.

If I get kick out, I'll wait for news time.

It will be a loss of 10 pips.

Smooth
47
Smooth  

We've said it repeatedly in recent months - markets across the globe are overly complacent about the risks facing the economy. And the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), lead by Mervyn King, clearly agrees.

The City, estate agents, industry, unions - almost all were united in their condemnation of the rate hike. But the reality is that it was about time that the Bank shook things up a little.

Inflation by any measure - even the consumer price index (CPI) figure that has taken so much flack recently - is at multi-year highs. At 2.7%, CPI is just below the 3% target that would mean the Bank having to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why.

Next week, inflation figures for December are revealed to the public, but the Bank would have seen them during its meeting - and judging by its reponse, they can't be pretty. The British Retail Consortium has already reported that shop price inflation was up 2.3% year-on-year last month, despite all the pre-Christmas press reports of widespread discounting.

Given that shop price deflation has been one of the few things keeping CPI in check, it may well be that CPI for December has already breached the 3% target. As The Times points out: "Any letter will be easier to write if the MPC has already responded to such an inflationary overshoot."

The Bank is also clearly worried that people are losing faith in how well inflation is being controlled. Consumers' expectations for future inflation are rising, and the recent criticism in even the mainstream press of inflation measures shows just how little people feel that the official figures reflect their personal circumstances.

When inflationary expectations become entrenched among employees, that's when they demand higher wages. And with January the key pay round month, the Bank probably felt that sticking to the City's expected timetable of a February hike would be too little, too late.

And then of course, there's house prices. Lenders are still merrily engaged in a race to the bottom, to relax lending standards on both buy-to-let mortgages and sub-prime loans. This is storing up serious trouble, just as overly generous credit card lending leading up to 2003/04 has caused the current bad debt problems being suffered by most British banking groups.

The Bank's latest rate hike may not stop the housing hysteria in its tracks - but it may well make some people think twice before committing to that lovely two-bed flat with the negative rental yield that they saw as a "long-term investment".

But the big question is - will the Bank stop now? As regular readers may have guessed, we have our doubts. This surprise hike will certainly take some pressure off the Bank - by confounding City expectations, it's showing that it has a hard line on inflation, and it may wipe some of the exuberance out of the market.

But there's plenty of signs of complacency still there. The FTSE 100 all but shrugged the hike off - it suffered a 30-point fall just after the announcement, but then ended the day around 70 points higher. It wasn't so long ago that even a hint of an interest rate hike was sending traders scurrying for the hills.

So clearly, like everything else, the markets are putting a positive spin on what would normally have been a nasty surprise. The twisted bull logic probably goes something like this - "if the Bank hikes now, that means it won't have to hike later. So in fact, interest rates are going to peak even earlier! That's great news!"

As long as the markets are thinking this way, the Bank's job isn't done. The fact is that interest rates have been too low for too long, and bringing the economy back into balance will unfortunately require a lot more discomfort than the slap delivered by Mervyn King and chums yesterday. But it's a start.

On another note, the rate hike will certainly have an impact on everyone's personal finances. So it's not a bad time to start taking some advice on how to make sure your financial household is in orderWe've said it repeatedly in recent months - markets across the globe are overly complacent about the risks facing the economy. And the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), lead by Mervyn King, clearly agrees.

The City, estate agents, industry, unions - almost all were united in their condemnation of the rate hike. But the reality is that it was about time that the Bank shook things up a little.

Inflation by any measure - even the consumer price index (CPI) figure that has taken so much flack recently - is at multi-year highs. At 2.7%, CPI is just below the 3% target that would mean the Bank having to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why.

Next week, inflation figures for December are revealed to the public, but the Bank would have seen them during its meeting - and judging by its reponse, they can't be pretty. The British Retail Consortium has already reported that shop price inflation was up 2.3% year-on-year last month, despite all the pre-Christmas press reports of widespread discounting.

Given that shop price deflation has been one of the few things keeping CPI in check, it may well be that CPI for December has already breached the 3% target. As The Times points out: "Any letter will be easier to write if the MPC has already responded to such an inflationary overshoot."

The Bank is also clearly worried that people are losing faith in how well inflation is being controlled. Consumers' expectations for future inflation are rising, and the recent criticism in even the mainstream press of inflation measures shows just how little people feel that the official figures reflect their personal circumstances.

When inflationary expectations become entrenched among employees, that's when they demand higher wages. And with January the key pay round month, the Bank probably felt that sticking to the City's expected timetable of a February hike would be too little, too late.

And then of course, there's house prices. Lenders are still merrily engaged in a race to the bottom, to relax lending standards on both buy-to-let mortgages and sub-prime loans. This is storing up serious trouble, just as overly generous credit card lending leading up to 2003/04 has caused the current bad debt problems being suffered by most British banking groups.

The Bank's latest rate hike may not stop the housing hysteria in its tracks - but it may well make some people think twice before committing to that lovely two-bed flat with the negative rental yield that they saw as a "long-term investment".

But the big question is - will the Bank stop now? As regular readers may have guessed, we have our doubts. This surprise hike will certainly take some pressure off the Bank - by confounding City expectations, it's showing that it has a hard line on inflation, and it may wipe some of the exuberance out of the market.

But there's plenty of signs of complacency still there. The FTSE 100 all but shrugged the hike off - it suffered a 30-point fall just after the announcement, but then ended the day around 70 points higher. It wasn't so long ago that even a hint of an interest rate hike was sending traders scurrying for the hills.

So clearly, like everything else, the markets are putting a positive spin on what would normally have been a nasty surprise. The twisted bull logic probably goes something like this -"if the Bank hikes now, that means it won't have to hike later. So in fact, interest rates are going to peak even earlier! That's great news!"That was and that is my view till today

As long as the markets are thinking this way, the Bank's job isn't done. The fact is that interest rates have been too low for too long, and bringing the economy back into balance will unfortunately require a lot more discomfort than the slap delivered by Mervyn King and chums yesterday. But it's a start.

On another note, the rate hike will certainly have an impact on everyone's personal finances. So it's not a bad time to start taking some advice on how to make sure your financial household is in order.

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Have Fun !!

/Smooth

sailor
492
sailor  

lets se were europe gonna close sterling

sailor

nina
2768
nina  

Hi!!!

As long as it holds above 233,70; you'll see it at 235,65.

Ok, mates; our beloved GBPJPY is doing what has been forecast.

It has made a high so far at 235,73.

Don't you think this pair is easy to forecast. It is a crazy horse as you know.

Had you followed my advice and kept in since the second buy at 234,18, you'd be now + 155 pips.

nina
2768
nina  

Hi!

Next signal to go long on cable should be at 1,9490 ask with stop at 1,9450 for a shot to 1,9505 and 1,9538-48.

Cable's high so far: 1,9587.

Tryin2Learn
25
Tryin2Learn  

Gbpjpy?

ARE YOU STILL LOOKING 4 IT TO GO TO 237.10?NOW THAT PASSED

nina:
Hi!!!

Ok, mates; our beloved GBPJPY is doing what has been forecast.

It has made a high so far at 235,73.

Don't you think this pair is easy to forecast. It is a crazy horse as you know.

Had you followed my advice and kept in since the second buy at 234,18, you'd be now + 155 pips.
Tryin2Learn
25
Tryin2Learn  

Sorry So Many????????????

JUST CURIOUS DOESNT IT SUPPOSE TO RETRACE A GOOD AMOUNT AND THEN GO TO NEXT HIGH OR DOES IT MOVE WITH MINOR DROPS AND CONTINUE TO RISE FOR YOUR THEORY?

nina:
Hi!!!

Ok, mates; our beloved GBPJPY is doing what has been forecast.

It has made a high so far at 235,73.

Don't you think this pair is easy to forecast. It is a crazy horse as you know.

Had you followed my advice and kept in since the second buy at 234,18, you'd be now + 155 pips.
showmethetrade
17
showmethetrade  

Nina,

What time zone do you trade in? I am in the EST but would like to know when to catch most of your comments early.

Hi, Showmethetrade!

I live in Barcelona, Catalonia. My time zone is CET, which is GMT + 1 now.

I understand you live in the States (EST). So I'm six hours ahead.

I use to post comments from 08:00CET to 11:30CET. And then, according to my daily job, I could post from 16:00 to 24:00.

I do it if I think I have something to say.

nina
2768
nina  
Tryin2Learn:
ARE YOU STILL LOOKING 4 IT TO GO TO 237.10?NOW THAT PASSED

Hi!!!

What a shot, my friend. What a shot!!!

Today is Friday. GBPJPY has gone up this week: 762 pips.

It feels tired and we should let it rest. You know where it has its line in the sand. So, as long as it trades above, you'll see 237,10. Guaranteed. But not today, I think.

I must confess: this pair has given me more money this week than any other in all the years I''ve been trading FOREX.

My system is based on relationship between numbers in a given period of time. I add them a very few indicators to it and that's all.

I've learn that, when we are in a big, big trend, the retracements are very, very small.

nina
2768
nina  
What time zone do you trade in? I am in the EST but would like to know when to catch most of your comments early.

Hi, Showmethetrade!

I live in Barcelona, Catalonia. My time zone is CET, which is GMT + 1 now.

I understand you live in the States (EST). So I'm six hours ahead.

I use to post comments from 08:00CET to 11:30CET. And then, according to my daily job, I could post from 16:00 to 24:00.

I do it if I think I have something to say.