How to play with AI in Forex and Stock? - General

flimboquest 2006.12.25 00:22 #31

Soft

Hmm better solution for playing with AI in Forex or Stock is try some Software like Neuroshell or TradingSolution.

fx4_ever 2006.12.25 04:24 #32

NN or any other prog

Hi:

Thanks for your comments.

I don't know anything about NN. I wish I know...

I saw this EA and ran on 4 hr test to see the results (posted on first thread) It looked pretty good, but wasn't sure what the strategy is based on until

"witchazel" explaned.

Any of you think this EA has possibility to gain pips after tweaking?

Craig:
My 2 cents, Neural Networks don't really work as far as I can see, I have spent countless hours coding and testing such beasts with nothing really to show. When evaluating such methods it is important to understand what is actually happening, to cut though the BS as it were. Neural Networks are not magic, just non-linear regression, as such they can do an amazing job of fitting test data but tell you nothing of the future. The other mistaken assumption which is applied to NN & Forex is that there is some type of 'hidden pattern' in the data which the NN will deduce, I have not found this to be the case. In my experence the greater the degrees of fredom of a system the more prone it is to overfitting the data, hence giving no value in data ranges outside the test data.

Avalanche EA M series, for Are there any RSI

Craig 2006.12.25 04:42 #33

I tweaked this EA to follow a more conventional NN layout (Normalized inputs, better activation functions, etc) and tried running optimizations over 1 years worth of data. At 90% quality it was modistly profitable, but performed poorly on out of sample data. Running the the same tests on tick data there was even less profit, but with better out of sample performance.

So in summary, it was just profitable ($2000 over the course of a year, starting with $10000).

Running the optimizations on Metatrader is kind of limited because the genetic optimizer freaks if you have too many variables to optimize (e.g. weights in a NN), I posted this bug on the Metaquotes site, but nobody appears to give a s**t.

Over-optimization (curve fitting) backtesting many strategies at 90%??

prasxz 2006.12.25 11:43 #34

Nn

Craig:
I tweaked this EA to follow a more conventional NN layout (Normalized inputs, better activation functions, etc) and tried running optimizations over 1 years worth of data. At 90% quality it was modistly profitable, but performed poorly on out of sample data. Running the the same tests on tick data there was even less profit, but with better out of sample performance.

So in summary, it was just profitable ($2000 over the course of a year, starting with $10000).

Running the optimizations on Metatrader is kind of limited because the genetic optimizer freaks if you have too many variables to optimize (e.g. weights in a NN), I posted this bug on the Metaquotes site, but nobody appears to give a s**t.

did u use backpropagation NN?

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Craig 2006.12.25 16:28 #35

If by back propagation you mean the training method, no. I could not see how that could be done in the MT4 backtester.

forex_for_life 2007.04.03 22:34 #36

Neural Networks!!!

I've never heard mention of this very interesting tool that has been improving already great trading systems for a while now, or so I read. Has anybody had any experience with this yet?

Lil info on em for those who do know. Seems to be very "revolutionary".

http://cortex.snowseed.com/index.html

(This site has some other interesting topics to help develop a trader's psychology. Plus they offer a free NN software.)

http://www.neuroshell.com/learnmore.asp

(These people sell their software. Lot of free info on this site. Plus they've gotten awards from Stocks and Commodities mag.)

P.S.

It looks like it helps to have an understanding of C++, which a lot of you do.

*NOTE*

I'm not selling, soliciting, offering, or marketing anything. Just thought this was very interesting.

[WARNING CLOSED!] Any newbie using indicator for automated I INVITE COOPERATION FROM

prasxz 2007.04.03 22:59 #37

hi

forex_for_life:
I've never heard mention of this very interesting tool that has been improving already great trading systems for a while now, or so I read. Has anybody had any experience with this yet?