Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for AUD/USD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 16:59

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD"The coming week is unlikely to alter that view, if only because scheduled economic clues are scant. There’s no first-tier data out of Australia in prospect at all, apart from a look at wage costs on Wednesday. There are a few interesting second-rank reports, notably the ANZ/Roy Morgan look at consumer confidence, and private capital expenditure data. We will also hear from RBA Governor Philip Lowe. He speaks in Sydney on Tuesday."


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My Humble PA

Dua Yong Rew, 2017.02.20 00:14

AUDNZD - Exhaustion on SR

AUDUSD - Exhaustion 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.21 07:02

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 21 pips range price movement

2017-02-21 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From macrobusiness article:

  • "As expected, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank provided little additional insight to the Governor’s post-meeting statement and the February Statement on Monetary Policy."
  • "We see nothing in these minutes to change our view that the official cash rate will remain on hold throughout 2017 and 2018. Markets continue to anticipate rate hikes in 2018 while a considerable number of commentators are predicting rate cuts in 2017. The middle course seems a much more likely outcome particularly given our view that growth momentum can pick up in 2017 but slow markedly through 2018 posing risks for the labour market and economic activity."

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AUD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.23 08:33

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Private Capital Expenditure and 27 pips range price movement

2017-02-23 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

  • past data is -3.3%
  • forecast data is -0.4%
  • actual data is -2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report:

  • "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 3.1% in the December quarter 2016 and the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.1%."
  • "The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 4.7% in the December quarter 2016 and the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 4.1%."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Australian Private Capital Expenditure news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 11:57

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD"Well, none of the good news is ever quite enough to move the dial on comparative interest-rate expectations between Australia and the US. That leaves the market stuck with the now-aging thesis that while US interest rates are going up, Australian rates are staying put at record-low levels. But will the interest rate backdrop change? Probably not. Unless GDP growth absolutely storms away, then the RBA will remain cautious. The US Federal Reserve is – as we know – on track to raise rates “fairly soon,” so while AUD/USD may not fall, it will still be struggling for reasons to rise far."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.27 07:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Company Gross Operating Profits and 37 pips range price movement 

2017-02-27 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Company Operating Profits]

  • past data is 1.5%
  • forecast data is 8.0%
  • actual data is 20.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Company Operating Profits] = Change in the total value of profits earned by corporations.

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate for inventories rose 0.7% in the December quarter 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% this quarter."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits rose 20.1% in the December quarter 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Australian Company Gross Operating Profits news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.28 08:18

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Current Account and 22 pips range price movement 

2017-02-28 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Current Account]

  • past data is -10.2B
  • forecast data is -3.8B
  • actual data is -3.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

==========

From official report:

  • "The current account deficit, seasonally adjusted, fell $6,348m (62%) to $3,853m in the December quarter 2016. There was a turnaround of $8,205m on the balance on goods and services, resulting in a surplus of $4,667m in the December quarter 2016. The primary income deficit rose $1,843m (30%) to $8,081m."
  • "In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the surplus on goods and services rose $700m (49%) from $1,424m in the September quarter 2016 to $2,124m in the December quarter 2016. This is expected to contribute 0.2 percentage points to growth in the December quarter 2016 volume measure of GDP."

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AUD/USD M5: 22 pips range price movement by Australian Australian Current Account news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.02 08:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: International Trade in Goods and Services and 21 pips range price movement 

2017-03-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 3.33B
  • forecast data is 3.82B
  • actual data is 1.30B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From rttnews article:

  • "Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$1.302 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That was shy of expectations for a surplus of A$3.80 billion and was down 61 percent from A$3.334 billion in December."
  • "Non-monetary gold fell A$671 million (39 percent) and non-rural goods lost A$403 million (2 percent)."

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AUD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 08:14

AUD/USD - daily correction with good breakdown possibility (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: price is located above ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the correction to be started in the end of February this year. For now, the price is on testing Fibo support level at 0.7242 to below for the correction to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price to be ready for the break the historical price to below for good possible breakdown.


  • "The AUD/USD is trading into key values of support, as the pair has fallen as much as 199 pips from the standing yearly high at .7741."
  • "Technically the AUD/USD is trending lower in the short term, trading well below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), found at .7634. This short term decline in price has now pushed the pair to test the 200 Day MVA (Simple Moving Average), found at .7546. This line should be considered as a critical line of support, and a breakout below this point may suggest a shift in the AUD/USD’s long term trend. If prices fail to breakout however, it may suggest that this most recent decline has been a retracement in an ongoing 2017 uptrend."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.06 07:23

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-03-06 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2017. This follows a rise of 0.3% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in January 2017. This follows a fall of 0.1% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in November 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event


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