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chudanever
232
chudanever 2015.01.06 18:58 

QUESTION 1. LONG TERM  EA PERFORMANCE

i back tested this ea ("LONG TERM  EA PERFORMANCE") in long term data ticks like 10yrs and got excellent result,then i back tested again on short term ,like 1yrs performance but the result was not good as long term performance,it was consolidating up to one year in short term back testing.

QUESTION 2. SHORT TERM  EA PERFORMANCE

now another ea ("SHORT TERM  EA PERFORMANCE"), now this ea performed well on short term like 1year but fail woefully in long term test of 10yrs or 5yrs

now my question is if you were me which result will allow to go LIVE TRADING?. please think before suggesting as professionals! 


  • Note 1. if  i allow long term performance to run that means i may miss this year profit as the ea back test showed great sign of return last back years,now this year it looks like its correcting for another up movement of which it may take all the year to correct or quarter of the year before resuming movement. in addition to long term decision no good SOFTWARE DEVELOPER can allow an ea to run 1year without update. secondly you know that eas has failing year or lets call it correction, no ea can go up forever.my fears are the ea may start failing with my MT4 DEPOSITED BALANCE and that spelled doom and disaster for my money
  • Note 2. if i choose short term good performance.is that reasonable? since it fail woefully on long term back testing and only perform well on short term!, like on 1 year.my fears are can it withstand forward test since the performance was poor on long term test.

NOW MY QUESTION IS IF YOU ARE TO BE ME WHICH ONE WILL YOU ALLOW TO GO FORWARD TEST which means  LIVE TRADING. thanks

or is there any article on how to decide future performance of EAs or how to choose EAs.


BELOW IS THE TRADING OR BACK TESTED RESULTSresult


traded result is attached below please i need your reviews

Files:
James Hodges
2796
James Hodges 2015.01.06 19:51  

The software is just a tool in the hands of the trader. Back testing is far from reality. No one would start an EA and let it run for 10 years without touching it or changing the settings. Would it keep  working every time MetaQuotes changes the code?  The real results are a combination of the trader and his tools. Not the tools alone.

You can use a hammer to build a house but, you can also use one to tear it down. It all depends on who's hand it's in and what talent and knowledge they possess. No one knows what the market is going to do in the future and how you are going to react (FEARS AND WORRIES) to it. Any success or failure of the account solely rests on YOU not on the software. Only YOU can JUDGE FOR YOU.

Stop relying on fictitious scenarios from back testing. It's only by live trading on a real account will you see the result and then only in hindsight will you know what you SHOULD have done.
I wish you the best in making your decision.
Let us know in 10 years how it went.... PipPip...Jimdandy

chudanever
232
chudanever 2015.01.07 01:15  

Jimdandy your right and your points are constructive but in addition to your points i know inasmuch as hammer processes a work which the handler is directly involve. but in cases of ea developers you can not do without back testing otherwise you look like a carpenter without hammer,as bad and far from reality as back testing yet developer can not do without them. a good performing software must show you a sign of good return on back testing then the rest battle lies on your brokers platform structures.


  • now i back tested  10yrs which i found the result some what good,but the rest of the question is on the forward testing (which am already trading now) whether the result will characterize the past performance. now you made a point when you say "No one would start an EA and let it run for 10 years without touching it or changing the settings". yes your right but my question is.is it reasonable to optimize an ea for a better performance as far as 10yrs
  • or is 2yrs back test reasonable to judge the good sense of filling good hoping for future performance?
  • what i mean is since backtesting is one of the fictitious tool of developer traders  is it reasonable to back test as far as 10yrs or is it reasonable to only settle to only 3,2,1yrs back testing result.
  • because i noticed that some ea may perform excellent in 1,2,3yrs but fail woefully in in long term testing less say 5yrs.like i say every developer need back testing for a sense of filling good why they look up for a better performance in the future. no developer would like to see his ea perform less expected in back testing.so to some sense of reason how many years is reasonable to back test eas. thanks
SYED NAUFAL GADDAFI
1401
SYED NAUFAL GADDAFI 2015.01.07 02:03  
Unfortunately, some ea won't even make it past 3 months with good performance when doing forward testing. Market always changing and ea need to be adjusted every time. No such thing one setting could cover all. EA works really well if the market is trending enough but when the market is sideways, pray that it works too. Mostly got killed when the market is sideways. Especially when there are sudden spikes.
chudanever
232
chudanever 2015.01.07 07:16  
deysmacro:
Unfortunately, some ea won't even make it past 3 months with good performance when doing forward testing. Market always changing and ea need to be adjusted every time. No such thing one setting could cover all. EA works really well if the market is trending enough but when the market is sideways, pray that it works too. Mostly got killed when the market is sideways. Especially when there are sudden spikes.



deysmacro your right but should in case everything goes on fine is it good to back test an ea up to 10yrs or 1,2,3yrs. see why i think that long term ea back testing really make sense is the fact that it will meet several unfavorable conditions and still trade up the roof like the on i posted 10yrs back testing. at list that confidence is really appealing don't you think so. because no matter how market conditions changes past actions will always repeat.

chudanever
232
chudanever 2015.01.07 19:18  
please more contribution and suggestion long term back test quality and short term back testing  which one is the best
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