Is my EA worth something? 11+ years backtested, if profit reinvested, total profit 38 371%

Anti Lippasaar
255
Anti Lippasaar  

Data brought out year by year:

 

http://www.upload.ee/image/2811163/Forex_system.png

In this picture every year starts with 100 000€ and profits are not reinvested! Lot sizes are always same. TP and SL are both over 100pip from price.

If profits were reinvested(if account balance grow 10% then lotsize grows 10%) and 100 000€ were invested from year 2001 then total profit to date would be 38 371 000 €

IMO this system is good because it has been tested on 11+ years of data and it has worked nicely. The system itself is relatively simple to(very basic indicators and few). Mathematically taken, i think there is nice change for system to perform well at least for year or two.

System was tested on EUR/USD

Sorry for relatively bad english.

William Roeder
23488
William Roeder  

drawdowns of 50% are too large for me.

Optimize it on 1/2 of your history and run with those parameters on the other 1/2. Then you have a better idea.

Tjipke de Vries
6756
Tjipke de Vries  

What info does this give ......

It is not trading often

It can have a drawdown of 50%

It might be the result of best optimization

no live result is proofing your system

Why don't you try it out and open a real account with 100 000€  ?? 

Roberto Dasso
106
Roberto Dasso  
deVries:

What info does this give ......

It is not trading often

It can have a drawdown of 50%

It might be the result of best optimization

no live result is proofing your system

Why don't you try it out and open a real account with 100 000€  ?? 

will you be comfortable loosing 55% of your money?
Anti Lippasaar
255
Anti Lippasaar  
In 11+ years drawdown has never been larger than 50%. It can spike your account down about 50% but it will rise most likely because it has been tested on 11.5 years. Or not?

It is not trading often, but it does trade every year 20-40 trades a year which is quit stable?

When i want to test it live i think i will get very similar results, there will be small variation because of spread, market movement etc.

And also i can bring down drawdown to 20% by lowering lotsize, but then profit will go also go lower by factor of 2.5

I dont have 100 000€
Tjipke de Vries
6756
Tjipke de Vries  
Justhavingfun:
will you be comfortable loosing 55% of your money?


If I can miss so much and have proof my account always recover and then get big profits again no matter what forex does then yes

if it is a reliable system......    also with the rules you have to trade at your broker 

Tjipke de Vries
6756
Tjipke de Vries  
olympus999:
In 11+ years drawdown has never been larger than 50%. It can spike your account down about 50% but it will rise most likely because it has been tested on 11.5 years. Or not?   //with best optimized setting ?? 

It is not trading often, but it does trade every year 20-40 trades a year which is quit stable?  // ????

When i want to test it live i think i will get very similar results, there will be small variation because of spread, market movement etc.

And also i can bring down drawdown to 20% by lowering lotsize, but then profit will go also go lower by factor of 2.5

I dont have 100 000€


then why do you begin your test with settings most traders can't work with....

Just open a new micro cents account and trie only this system out for a few years

with money you can loose ....  then you know your answer

We can't say your EA is worth something if we can't test it ourselves and if we don't get more reliable information we can check

Anti Lippasaar
255
Anti Lippasaar  
I understand your perspective. I wanted your opinion on the stats. I have been developing systems so long it has been getting depressive. I needed some feedback on my developments.

In my opinion 50% drawdown is acceptable if it is likely to recover and 50% has only occured once in the 11+ years.

One more thing, my system opens only Long orders. I try to develope also good system using only shorts and then combine them for increased performance and stability.

Actually i have not optimized my system overly. I think i might get better results when moving tp/sl or some other stat few or more points.

In real time trading i dont expect to get 100% same results, but i do hope to get close to 95% accuracy. because my sl and tp are both over 100 pip from open price it can stand slight variation coming from increased spread and other variables that come from real time trading.

Taken that it will perform with at least 95% accuracy on real account i think investing into that system is mathematically a good idea. From year 2011 till today when profits reinvested it would have made over 500%. Given this system has not failed in the 11+ years i would say it has more than 50% of change to produce more than 150%(most likely more) profit in next 2 years and using those stats it would be profitable investment.

Take it like this. If i invest 10€ and i have 50/50 change to lose all of my money or earn 15€. I would take those odds every time! And i think my system gives out better odds. I just need to real time trade to get confirmation which i believe i will get.
Simon Gniadkowski
17309
Simon Gniadkowski  
Run your EA on other currency pairs,  maybe USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPUSD, etc . . .  if you get similar results then you have something.
noonehastherighttojudgeanother
237
noonehastherighttojudgeanother  

Have you forward tested?  I have an EA that I think will work.  Back testing has shown that it will.  I open a new demo account every 6 months and start forward testing.  If after 3 years, all accounts are positive and have similar results, I will go live.   You will find things in your forward testing you can't see in back testing.  I have found two small calculation errors over the first year - correcting them has reduced my drawdown.   Good luck.