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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 11.08 - 25.08 : Ranging

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.11 15:07 

We had bear market rally during whole last week, and Chinkou Span line crossed historical price on Friday for good breakout. But the price is still on primary bearish which is located below Ichimoku cloud. The Cloud is wide one and too far from D1 market price so I think - this last week uptrend may be just bear market rally which may be continued for this week with the trend to be reversed to primary/secondary bearish anyway.

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price to break 0.9207 resistance with possible first take profit level as 0.9240
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price for crossing 0.9134 support level
  • Trading Summary: rally

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for the next week)

2013-08-13 01:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

2013-08-14 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]

2013-08-14 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

2013-08-15 01:00 GMT | [AUD - Consumer Inflation Expectation]

2013-08-16 01:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Speaks]

2013-08-19 01:30 GMT | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]

2013-08-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]

2013-08-21 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index]

2013-08-22 00:00 GMT | [AUD - CB Leading Indicator]


Resistance
 Support
0.9214
0.9141
0.9220
0.9058
0.9242
0.8919




SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish


Intraday Chart


Tonny Obare
31086
Tonny Obare 2013.08.11 16:30  
This newdigital likes money too much.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.11 16:44  
I think - AUDUSD is the most interesting pair for this week (to trade for example).
Aleksey Rodionov
4320
Aleksey Rodionov 2013.08.11 17:01  
newdigital:
I think, - AUDUSD pair is the most interesting this week (in the trade, for example).
Yes they are all linked to each other, so I think there is no big difference for any pair to make predictions.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.11 18:38  
Zeleniy:
Yes they are all linked to each other, so I think there is no big difference for any pair to make predictions.

This is not a prediction. This is technical analysis based on support and resistance (prediction is some kind of "forex scam", and technical analysis is the science - so they are different ones).

============

This pair is really interesting because Chinkou Span line (light blue line on the far left on the chart) is crossed with historical price on open bar for D1, and it is indicating future possible breakout. But I think that it will be reversal to original/primary bearish (D1 timeframe) so it may be breakdown. Anyway - I am expecting some good movement of the price anyway ... to any side sorry :)

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.11 18:45  
newdigital:

This is not a prediction. This is technical analysis based on support and resistance (prediction is some kind of "forex scam", and technical analysis is the science - so they are different ones).

============

This pair is really interesting because Chinkou Span line (light blue line on the far left on the chart) is crossed with historical price on open bar for D1, and it is indicating future possible breakout. But I think that it will be reversal to original/primary bearish (D1 timeframe) so it may be breakdown. Anyway - I am expecting some good movement of the price anyway ... to any side sorry :)

I tryed to translate to Russian language my post above - looks funny ... but understandable anyway.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.12 21:05  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.08.12 21:04

AUD/USD slightly higher as NAB lowers Aussie target

The Australian dollar traded modestly higher against its U.S. counterpart in Asian trading Monday even after National Australia Bank lowered its price target on the pair.

In Asian trading Monday, AUD/USD inched up 0.01% to 0.9200. The pair is likely to find support at 0.9087, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.9287, the high from July 29.

In recent days, the Aussie has been home to noticeable strength against the greenback due in large to some supportive Chinese economic data. Last week, the Aussie was boosted after official data showed that Chinese industrial output rose significantly more-than-forecast in July and consumer price inflation remained unchanged.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.13 10:15  

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.08.13

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUD NAB Business Confidence

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.08.13, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.08.13 10:14

2013-08-13 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia's Business Confidence At 8-Month Low: NAB Survey

Australian business confidence slipped an eight-month low in July while firms' operating conditions remained at its weakest level in four years, a survey by the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed Tuesday.

The business confidence index fell to -3 in July, the lowest score since November 2012, from zero in June. "It is likely that the weakness in business activity and profitability is the key driver of weaker confidence," the survey report said.


Ronnie Mansolillo
5521
Ronnie Mansolillo 2013.08.13 23:48  
on my 8h time frame chart has inverted its bearish primary trend and seem to be ready for a long bullish one.AUDUSD
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.14 09:15  

As I see from H4 chart - this is bullish but flat :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, H4, 2013.08.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

audusd h4 bullish but flat

AUDUSD, H4, 2013.08.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


about D1 so it is bearish but flat:

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AUDUSD, D1, 2013.08.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

audusd d1 bearish flat

AUDUSD, D1, 2013.08.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94494
Sergey Golubev 2013.08.14 09:18  

As to H8 timeframe so it is also flat, besides - the price is inside Ichimpoku cloud so it may be any direction in the near future and this direction will be based on fundamental news events sorry.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, H8, 2013.08.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

audusd h8 flat - and price is inside Ichimoku cloud

AUDUSD, H8, 2013.08.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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