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I am continuing with AUDUSD for this week as well because I think it is still most interesting pair to trade for this week too.
It was an opinion (I am editing the first post of this thread).
I did not change any text on the first post because it is original one. I just changed support / resistance levels to be suitable for this week, added/change new images and added new news events.
Just for information.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2013.08.19
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
26 pips movement on New Motor Vehicle Sales
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.08.19 09:30
2013-08-19 01:30 GMT | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia July New Motor Vehicle Sales -3.5%
The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent in July compared to the previous month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 93,797.
That follows the 4.0 percent monthly gain in June.
By category, sales of passenger vehicles shed 3.0 percent on month, while sports utility vehicles lost 2.3 percent and other vehicles dropped 6.2 percent.
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.08.20 14:05
AUD at Risk on RBA Minutes- Verbal Intervention on Tap?
Why Is This Event Important:
Although there’s speculation that the RBA delivered its last rate cut at the August 6 meeting, Governor Glenn Stevens may continue to strike a cautious outlook for the region amid the slowing recovery, and the central bank head make further attempt to talk down the Australian dollar in an effort to balance the risks surrounding the region.
The RBA may talk down bets for lower borrowing costs amid the rise in private lending, and we will need to see the central bank endorse a neutral policy stance to see a more meaningful rebound in the Australian dollar.
Nevertheless, Governor Stevens may continue to push for a weaker exchange rate in order to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the higher-yielding currency may gather pace over the near to medium-term should the interest rate outlook deteriorate further.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Should the RBA soften its dovish tone for monetary policy and talk down bets for another rate cut, we will then need to see a green, five-minute candle following the statement to consider a long entry on two-lots of AUDUSD. If the market reaction favor a long aussie-dollar trade, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in an effort to protect our profits.
On the other hand, the RBA may try to talk down the Australian dollar amid the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, and we will carry out the same setup for a short aussie-dollar trade as the long position mentioned above, just in the opposite direction.