EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal
The price (EURUSD D1) is continuing to go along Sinkou Span B line (which is the border of the cloud) indicating Sideway Market (flat) on D1 timeframe :
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Sideways Market
Just want to remind that we can measure the market condition using this indicator from MT5 CodeBase : AbsoluteStrengthMarket
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
past data is 49.0 according to release
forecast is 50.6
actual is 50.9 according to latest release.
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
past data is 49.0 according to release
forecast is 50.6
actual is 50.9 according to latest release.
This was 13 pips only:
Why? read this press release:
newdigital, 2013.07.01 16:14
U.S. Manufacturing Index Climbs Slightly More Than Expected In June
After reporting a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Institute for Supply Management released a report on Monday showing that manufacturing activity expanded by a little more than expected in June.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 50.9 in June from 49.0 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in manufacturing activity. Economists had been expecting the index to edge up to a reading of 50.5.
EURUSD H4 - flat (see image below). But Chinkou Span line (see light blue line on the left of the chart) is very near to be crossed with historical price. But this crossing is going on horizontal way ... because of flat. If the price will cross 1.3070 resistance level so we can get few pips by buy trade; if the price will cross 1.3005 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing. So, just a situation ...
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eurusd h4 flat
They will not be high impacted news events today anymore ... flat on EURUSD :
It may be 2 news events which may be good watch for example: speeches -
- 2013-07-02 16:30 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] - see release here
- 2013-07-02 21:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Powell Speaks] - see release here
========
Just to understand something about FOMC - read this post - What is FOMC Meeting :
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve. It determines short-term interest rates in the U.S. when it decides the overnight rate that banks pay each other for borrowing reserves when a bank has a shortfall in required reserves. This rate is the fed funds rate. The FOMC also determines whether the Fed should add or subtract liquidity in credit markets separately from that related to changes in the fed funds rate. The Fed announces its policy decision (typically whether to change the fed funds target rate) at the end of each FOMC meeting. This is the FOMC announcement. The announcement also includes brief comments on the FOMC's views on the economy and how many FOMC members voted for and how many voted against the policy decision.
This speech costs 10 pips for EURUSD :) yes, I am not joking ...
newdigital, 2013.07.02 18:47
2013-07-02 16:30 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] - see release here
The whole speech is here : The National and Regional Economy :
Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, we have had 15 consecutive quarters of positive growth of real GDP. However, the average annual growth rate over that period has been just 2.1 percent. Although the unemployment rate has declined by 2.5 percentage points from its peak of 10 percent in October of 2009, much of this decline is due to the fact that the labor force participation rate has fallen by 1.5 percentage points over this period. Recall that discouraged workers who do not actively look for work are regarded as not participating in the labor force and so are not counted as unemployed even though they are without jobs. Using an alternative measure, the employment to population ratio, which is not influenced by changes in the number of discouraged workers, there has been limited improvement in labor market conditions. Job loss rates have fallen, but hiring rates remain depressed at low levels. Taken together, the labor market still cannot be regarded as healthy. Numerous indicators, including the behavior of labor compensation and household assessments of labor market conditions, are all consistent with the view that there remains a great deal of slack in the economy.
That being said, I see persuasive evidence of improved underlying
fundamentals for much of the private sector of the U.S. economy. Key
measures of household leverage have declined and are now at the lowest
levels they have been in well over a decade. Household net worth,
expressed as a percent of disposable income, has increased back to its
average of the previous decade, reflecting rising equity and home prices
and declining liabilities. Banks are beginning to ease credit
standards somewhat after a prolonged period of tightness. As a result,
we are now experiencing a fairly typical cyclical recovery of consumer
spending on durable goods. For example, light-weight motor vehicles
sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million in May, not
far from the 16.1 million sales in 2007.
I see the speech as a positive news for the US economy therefore for the US Dollar
and as a result this one will be appreciated against the other currencies EUR, CHF or Gold.
I think for at least a moment the:
EURUSD will fall
USDCHF will rise
XAUUSD will fall.
What do you mean about the 10 pips cost ?
is that the EURUSD will fall from 1.30190 to 1.30094 ?
Yes,
and it is falling also now after the speech.
Thanks ;)
I did not find the reason why EURUSD price was moved on this way so fast :
and seems it is for EURUSD only:
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for eurusd only
because no speeches ... nothing ...
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This was bullish market condition as a primary one with correction started on D1 timeframe for the last week. The price came very close to Ichimoku cloud trying to break thin cloud with 1.2984 resistance line and trying to be reversed to primary bearish. Besides, Chinkou Spam line is near historical price for crossing it from above to below which is indicating the possible breakdown.
If price will break 1.2984 and 1.2961 support levels with historical price to be broken by Chonkou Span line so we may have very good breakdown situation with primary reversal to bearish market condition. If the price will finish with the correction and will break 1.3236 support line (which is Sinkou Span B line) to be above Ichimoku cloud (kumo) so the bullish primary trend will be continuing.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for the next week)
2013-07-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2013-07-01 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Producer Price Index (PPI)]
2013-07-03 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Retail Sales]
2013-07-03 12:15 GMT | [USD - Automatic Data Processing Employment Change (ADP Employment Change]
2013-07-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]
2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision]
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]
2013-07-05 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German Factory Orders]
2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls]
SUMMARY : trying to be reversed
TREND : possible reversal to bearish
Intraday Chart