Press review - page 152
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2014-05-12 08:05 GMT (or 10:05 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - New Loans]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
CNY New Loans = Value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month
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Facebook Stock in Bearish Continuation Pattern? – May 12, 2014
Facebook stock prices have been moving sideways for nearly a month already, as traders try to figure out the direction for the online company. The price has broken below the 50 SMA (simple moving average) recently, indicating that a downtrend is in the cards.
A break below the current consolidation pattern could mean more losses for Facebook stock, as it might form a head and shoulders pattern. This is a classic reversal signal in financial markets, indicating that Facebook stock price could eventually trade below the 200 SMA.
Facebook Stock Price Forecast
Take note that the head and shoulders chart pattern is roughly 20 points in height, which means that the resulting selloff could be of the same size. Sentiment for the company has turned sour after Facebook acquired a virtual reality company earlier this year.
On the other hand, an upside break from the current consolidation pattern and the 100 SMA could mean more gains for Facebook stock, possibly until the previous highs around $72.50. Analysts have marked Facebook as a "hold" in terms of stock signals.
Take note that the company's debt-to-equity ratio is low but is currently higher than the industry average. In addition, revenue growth is also higher than the industry average. Strong earnings growth have driven Facebook stock prices for the most part of 2013 and could continue to do so for the rest of this year.
The upcoming IPO of Alibaba could take the limelight and demand away from Facebook though, as this Chinese online retailer is set to take the world by storm. Despite that, Facebook prices could continue to draw support from the company's recently announced mobile ad platform. The Facebook Audience Network could allow the company to take advantage of mobile ad efforts in properties it doesn't control.
Alibaba IPO: Things You Should Know
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is a Chinese holding company that recently announced its plans to offer an IPO. This could be the world's largest initial public offering, as analysts estimate that Alibaba could be valued at $150 billion to $250 billion.
The lower end of the range would show that the company is as valuable as Facebook while the higher end of the range has a valuation close to that of Walmart. The company is currently the world's largest online marketplace, with 231 million active buyers annually and roughly $248 billion of merchandise moving through its sites in 2013. This means that it has more transaction volumes compared to Amazon and Ebay combined.
Alibaba IPO OutlookWith its headquarters and client base in China, investing in the company is as good as investing in the world's second largest economy. In the country, Alibaba actually holds 80% of the e-commerce market share.
It has several subsites, including Taobao which is a free-for-all bazaar featuring hundreds of millions of goods from eight million merchants. It has Tmall for higher-end items such as Nike and Gap.
Aside from generating revenue from sales commissions, Alibaba also makes money on its advertisements. In 2013, revenue climbed 62% to $8 billion and is projected to grow at a 55% pace each year. In terms of company expenses, Alibaba is able to limit this by not keeping inventory. This means that the company is able to have a high operating margin compared to Google and Facebook.
Take note as well that the Chinese economy is expanding thrice as fast as the United States. Analysts estimate that the stock price could grow by 30-fold well into 2015 if the recovery keeps going on in China. The deal is set to be launched a few months of now but buying pressure could escalate once the Alibaba IPO is announced.
CBI Lifts U.K GDP Outlook; Sees First Rate Hike In Q1 2015
The Confederation of British Industry on Monday upgraded U.K. economic outlook as the recovery continues to take hold and brought forward the estimated date of interest rate hike to the first quarter of 2015.
The business lobby forecast 3 percent economic growth this year, up from the prior estimate of 2.6 percent. Likewise, growth for 2015 was lifted to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent.
"Prospects are bright and we expect the recovery to broaden out this year, with greater support from business investment in particular," John Cridland, CBI Director-General, said. The CBI estimates 8.3 percent rise in business investment this year and 9.1 percent in 2015.
However, momentum in household spending should fade somewhat later this year as improvements in consumer confidence are unlikely to improve at the same pace, it said. The lobby projects 2.4 percent rise in consumer spending in this year and next.
While exports growth is expected to pick-up, this is likely to be partially offset by accelerating imports growth, as domestic demand strengthens. As a result, the contribution to growth from net trade will remain muted.
Following upward revisions to GDP growth, the CBI expects the Bank of England to raise key rates by 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2015.
The CBI expects unemployment to average 6.8 percent this year and to have fallen to 6.2 percent by the end of 2015.
The lobby expects consumer price inflation to average 1.8 percent in 2014 and to remain close to 2 percent in 2015. Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be muted. Further, the appreciation in sterling is also likely to push down on import prices, which should gradually feed through to consumer prices, it said.
On housing, the CBI said transactions are picking up firmly. House price inflation is expected to rise to 8.2 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2013. In 2015, house price growth is seen at 5.1 percent.
The CBI said political uncertainty remains a major risk to the recovery. The lobby urged politicians to stick with what is working and tackle the UK's long-term economic challenges.
Among the measures the CBI is calling for are committing to eliminate the budget deficit, scrapping the immigration target and raising the tier 2 visa cap, ensuring big infrastructure decisions that are taken with a long-term strategic view and avoiding damaging market interventions.
Twitter doesn't have to grow into Facebook for the stock to pay off, Robert Peck says.
The current share price makes Twitter worth ubying “solely predicated on Twitter continuing to narrow the 50% monetization gap, while still assuming user growth deceleration,” he continues.
Shares of Twitter, which are down 50% this year and recently fell below $30 for the first time since last November’s IPO, were up more than 3% at $33.06 before the opening bell Monday.
The Reserve Bank of India was a net buyer of dollars worth US $ 7.78 billion in the spot forex market in March. As per the data of Monthly Bulletin for May 2014, the central bank purchased USD 8.75 billion in March while it sold US $ 970 million during the month.
However, in February, RBI had sold a net US $ 530 million in the spot forex market. For the entire 2013-14, there were net buys of US 4 8.99 billion, showed the data. RBI sells and purchases dollar in the market to check currency volatility.
In the forward dollar market, the outstanding net forward sales at the end of March by the RBI stood at USD 31.03 billion, versus US $ 31.32 billion in the previous month.
The rupee today closed flat at 60.05 per US $, after having surged to almost a 10-month high level of 59.51 per US dollar earlier in the day.
High Frequency Trading
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2014-05-13 05:30 GMT (or 07:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Industrial Production]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
CNY Industrial Production = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities
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China's Industrial Output, Retail Sales Growth Weaker Than Forecasts
China's industrial production growth eased unexpectedly in April, data showed Tuesday. Retail sales also expanded at a slower pace in April.
Industrial production grew 8.7 percent year-on-year in April, which was slightly slower than the 8.8 percent rise seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Production was forecast to rise by 8.9 percent.
Retail sales advanced 11.9 percent in April from a year ago, while the growth was forecast to remain unchanged at 12.2 percent.
During January to April, fixed asset investment increased 17.3 percent compared to 17.6 percent growth logged during January to March and expectations for 17.7 percent rise.
2014-05-13 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts
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EUR/USD got its ZEW, and fell down
EUR/USD opened the day at 1.3757, but since that time moved up by tiny steps reaching 1.3770 right before the release, and posting 1.3746 right after.
The first catalyst of Europe
The pair showed timid moves higher on hopes for the stronger German data which helped it to go above 1.3770 area just before the readings came out. The Economic sentiment index showed downward moves from last December when it posted multi-year high at 62. And this time the market expected to see another decrease from 43.2 in April to 41.3. However, the data came out at depressing 33.1 supporting the move of the pair to 1.3746 right after release, and making the market believe that Germany has hard times with strong national currency damaging export activity. The next target of the pair at 1.3717 support level.
What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3760, with support below at 1.3745, 1.3742 and 1.3717, with resistance above at 1.3773, 1.3788, and 1.3801. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 1.3862 and the daily 20EMA at 1.3832. Hourly RSI is bearish at 42.