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NASDAQ OMX to Sponsor Shift Forex FXIC NYC 2014 Event
Shift Forex LLC today announced that NASDAQ OMX will be the Presenting Sponsor at FXIC NYC 2014, a global foreign exchange (FX) industry conference to be held on June 20, 2014 at the Grand Hyatt in New York City. FXIC is the premier FX forum, bringing together the retail, institutional and wholesale segments of the global foreign exchange industry. NASDAQ OMX's sponsorship reflects the company's longstanding history of driving innovation in financial markets as well as market participant's growing demand, fueled partly by regulatory mandates in the US and Europe, for greater transparency and efficiency in FX trading and clearing.
"We are committed to the foreign exchange space and we are already well positioned, ahead of shifts in the regulatory landscape, to deploy our strategy for multi-asset trading and clearing," said Hans-Ole Jochumsen, Executive Vice President of Global Market Services at NASDAQ OMX. "Our customer focus, product development and technology synergies will continue to drive our growth in the FICC area as we offer market participants additional trading opportunities."
"We are absolutely thrilled to have NASDAQ OMX as the Presenting Sponsor this year in New York," said Matthew Miller, Founding Partner and COO of Shift Forex, the event host. "NASDAQ OMX's premier participation reflects the tectonic shifts that are occurring in the FX markets with the move toward a centrally-cleared model, as well as the continued blurring of the lines between various types of market participants, which is a central theme of the event."
Shift Forex's FXIC event attracted more than 300 industry executives in 2013, the event's inaugural year. This year, interest has grown as market participants grapple with rapid change and the resulting challenges. As the FX space continues to mature with competitive forces and industry standards, many new entrants accelerate the pace of innovation. FXIC assembles the global FX community for two days of industry discussions, predictions regarding the future of markets and access to buy and sell-side participants, brokers and technology providers, compliance and legal professionals.
Technical Analysis for USDCHF (adapted from dailyfx article)
The US Dollar roseas expected against the Swiss Franc but the likely way forward is obscured by conflicting technical cues. In one scenario, a pullback from resistance at 0.8834, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, looks like a correction offering a long entry setup in the context of a falling channel breakout. In another, a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern suggests a reversal lower is in progress.
The dollar fell on Tuesday as the market fretted ahead over a key U.S. employment report that is due on Friday and shrugged off data that shows U.S. manufacturing is picking up.
The dollar index plunged 0.12 percent to 80.008, down from a two-week peak of 80.296 the previous day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen backed the Fed’s loose monetary policy.
The euro rose 0.26 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.3810 in New York. The dollar, however, rose against the yen to 103.61, the highest level since March 7 as data showed U.S. factory activity grew for the second straight month.
"The focus is on U.S. data," Shaun Osborne, a Toronto-based currency strategist at TD Securities told Reuters.
The U.S. March non-farm payrolls data will be released this coming Friday. The yen slid after Japan’s Tankan research expressed doubts whether the economy would improve further in 2014.
"If there is clear weakness in the economic data from Japan, we could see the BOJ ease policy," said Yujiro Gato, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura. "But we do not expect that policy easing to take place anytime soon, perhaps in the third quarter."
"So those expecting the BOJ to ease in the short term could be in for a disappointment. But any dips in dollar/yen should be bought into, and we eventually expect it to rise to 104 yen."
The euro rose 0.55 percent versus the yen to trade at 142.92 yen. It had earlier reversed its decline that saw hit Monday’s low of $1.3721 against the dollar over fears that the European Central Bank may roll out measures to combat price pressures.
2014-04-02 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Building Approvals Fall In February
The total number of building approvals in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, standing at 16,669.
That was well shy of forecasts for a decline of 2.0 percent following the 6.9 percent increase in January.
On a yearly basis, building approvals climbed 23.2 percent - also missing expectations for 27.9 percent after surging 34.6 percent in the previous month.
Approvals for private sector houses fell 2.1 percent on month and climbed 21.8 percent on year to 9,293. Approvals excluding houses dropped 8.7 percent on month and jumped 32.7 percent on year to 7,146.
The value of total approvals fell 0.3 percent on month. The value of residential building approvals fell 0.2 percent, while the value of non-residential building approvals lost 0.5 percent.
2014-04-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
Spanish unemployment change March m/m -16,620 vs -5,300 exp
EURUSD lower at 1.3810 though with some EURGBP selling going through. Cable up to 1.6645
- US futures continue to edge higher on Yellen comments;
- US manufacturing data in focus today;
- Gradual decline in eurozone unemployment continues;
- Eurozone manufacturing PMIs largely positive this morning.
The positive start to the week for US indices looks set to continue on Tuesday, as future point to a higher open, with the S&P seen up 3 points, the Dow up 27 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. It seems Yellen’s soothing words on Monday regarding the ongoing accommodative stance of the Federal Reserve worked wonders following her blunder at the press conference a couple of weeks ago.Traders were not previously impressed with Yellen’s suggestion that rates could rise in the middle of 2015, but those fears appear to have been now eased somewhat. Now it’s over the economic data to provide the next catalyst for a push higher.
There’s plenty of data being released this week so we’re certainly not short on this front, the only question now is how much of a response we’ll get to these figures with the US jobs report being released on Friday. On the upside, investor sentiment seems fairly high at the moment, especially by recent standards, which suggests traders are anticipating a good jobs report.
This could mean they’re more inclined to respond positively to good figures between now and then. Of course this is dangerous but I strongly believe forecasts of only 196,000 for Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure is too conservative. The response to today’s economic releases could provide some insight into how traders will respond for the rest of the week.
The two manufacturing PMIs are expected to be quite positive, with the official reading being revised higher to 55.9, although that would still represent a slowdown from the previous reading of 57.1, while the ISM survey is seen rising to 54.2 from 53.2 in February.
The European session has been fairly mixed in terms of economic data so far, although indices are still more than half a percentage point higher as traders react to Yellen’s comments. One of the positive point, of course only by its own standard, was the drop in the eurozone unemployment rate to 11.9%. I say this is a positive because in recent years, the figure has risen almost every month to reach record highs of 12.2%. A period of stabilisation around this level is now being followed by a very gradual decline, which is to be expected given the amount of stress that has been put on the region.
On the bright side, at least it is now headed in the right direction. The manufacturing PMIs were largely positive, with only the German number slightly missing expectations. On the bright side, the German, French, Spanish and Italian numbers are all in growth territory which may be a token win as far as the eurozone in concerned, but at least it signals improvement.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Forex Market Update
mapq, 2014.04.02 13:16
Forex Market Update 02 Apr 14
This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US ADP employment data and few planned speeches from top Fed officials.
The EUR is trading tad lower against its US counterpart despite a 0.5% rise in the Euro-zone annual GDP data for the fourth quarter. Yesterday, the ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio played down the prospect of deflation threats in the economy. However, at the same time he also noted that a prolonged period of low inflation rate could “constitute a drag on the economy’s recovery.”
The GBP is trading higher against the USD as UK house prices registered a rise for a 25th consecutive month in March and following a strong domestic construction PMI data which indicated that the sector was still performing strongly.
In Japan, a survey from the BOJ revealed corporate Japan is not confident about the central bank achieving its 2% inflation goal by the April 2015 target date, on the back of the 3% sales tax hike which came into effect from yesterday. Separately, another survey from the BOJ indicated that nearly 70% of Japanese households planned to cut back on spending after the hike in the nation’s sales tax.
In yesterday’s New York session the USD traded mostly higher against the key currencies. In economic news, the ISM reported a less-than-expected rise in the US manufacturing activities in March while Markit Economics reported that it’s PMI on the US manufacturing sector fell in the previous month.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3792 against the USD, tad lower from the New York close. Euro-zone’s annual GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter while the producer price index dropped more-than-expected in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3821 and a low of 1.3790. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3794. The ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio expressed concerns on the prevailing low inflation in the Euro-zone but at the same time opined that there was no risk of deflation in the economy.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3777 and first resistance at 1.3814.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6644 against the USD, 0.08% higher from the New York close. In economic news, UK construction PMI edged down to a reading of 62.5 in March however it continued to remain in expansion territory. Separately, another report showed that the Nationwide house prices rose 0.4% (MoM) last month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6665 and a low of 1.6626. Yesterday, the British Pound traded slightly lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6631.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6620 and first resistance at 1.6667.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 103.82 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.13% higher from the New York close. A BoJ survey released overnight showed that Japanese firms expects consumer prices in the nation to rise to an average of 1.5% a year from now and to 1.7% three years and five years from now, suggesting that the BoJ plan’s to achieve 2% inflation could be at risk. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.95 and a low of 103.64. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.30% higher against the JPY, and closed at 103.69.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 103.43 and first resistance at 104.08.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8842 against the Swiss Franc, 0.06% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8846 and a low of 0.8824. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.12% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8837.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8822 and first resistance at 0.8854.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1020 against the CAD, 0.09% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1043 and a low of 1.1019. Yesterday, the USD traded tad lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1030. The Canadian Dollar advanced after data showed that Canada’s raw materials price index increased 5.7%, the most in almost three years in February and its industrial product price index rose 1.0% (MoM) in the same month.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0998 and first resistance at 1.1056.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9243 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, tad higher from the New York close. However, the Aussie’s initial gains were pared after a report showed the number of building approvals in Australia declined more than market expectations in February, raising concerns over the health of the nation’s housing sector. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9257 and a low of 0.9233. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9241.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9220 and first resistance at 0.9269.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1283.90 per ounce, 0.22% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1284.94 and a low of $1280.51 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.27% lower, and closed at $1281.02, following reports that showed holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined to 810.98 metric tons yesterday, the least since 7 March.
Gold has its first support at $1278.29 and first resistance at $1288.92.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.88 per ounce, 0.43% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.91 and a low of $19.76. Silver traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.80, buoyed by gains in the prices of industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $19.74 and first resistance at $19.97.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $99.68 per barrel, 0.10% higher from the New York close, ahead of the EIA report on the US weekly crude supplies. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $99.83 and a low of $99.37. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.56% lower in the New York session, and closed at $99.61, as the recent batch of dismal manufacturing PMI data from China and the US weighed on the demand-outlook of the commodity while easing tensions in Libya bolstered the supply prospect of the commodity. Separately, API reported an unexpected 5.8 million barrels drop in the US weekly crude inventory for last week.
It has its first support at $98.83 and first resistance at $100.99.
Economic Snapshot
UK Nationwide house prices rose at a slower pace in March
Nationwide reported that on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, house prices in UK rose 0.4% in March, compared to a revised increase of 0.7% recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting house prices to rise 0.8% in March.
UK construction PMI eased unexpectedly in March
The construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in UK eased unexpectedly to a reading of 62.5 in March, from a reading of 62.6 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 63.0 in March.
Euro-zone producer price index fell in February
On a monthly basis, the producer price index in the Euro-zone fell by 0.2% in February, compared to a 0.3% fall recorded in the previous month.
Euro-zone final GDP rose in Q4 2013
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, final gross domestic product (GDP) in the Euro-zone rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a 0.1% rise recorded in the third quarter of 2013.
Unemployment in Spain declined in March
The number of people unemployed in Spain dropped by 16.6K in March, compared to a decline of 1.9K unemployed reported in the previous month.
Australia building approvals fell more than expected in February
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, building approvals in Australia dropped 5.0% in February, compared to a revised 6.9% increase in the previous month. Markets were expecting building approvals to fall 2.0% in February.
Happy pips.
2014-04-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Falls Just Of Estimates In March
Employment in the U.S. private sector showed a notable increase in the month of March, according to a report released by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday, with the report also showing a substantial upward revision to the job growth in the previous month.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 191,000 jobs in March following an upwardly revised increase of 178,000 jobs in February.
While the job growth in March came in slightly below estimates for an addition of 195,000 jobs, the job growth in February was well above the previously reported increase of 139,000 jobs.
US Stock Futures Advance Ahead of Jobs Report
US stock index futures surged on Wednesday ahead of the release of labor market data. The employment report is expected to indicate whether or not the US job market has improved after a hampering winter.
The Standard and Poor’s 500 index futures jumped 0.1% while the NASDAQ composite index futures advanced 0.2%. Dow Jones industrial average index futures gained modestly.The S&P 500 hit a record high at closing on Tuesday, benefiting from investor optimism after US manufacturing data suggested that economy growth was picking up.
According to USA Today, foreign investors buying US stocks are partly responsible for the market’s recent rally. Increased buying of Wall Street shares should see US stock indexes continue to edge higher.
The monthly ADP employment report on the private sector is scheduled for release at 8:15 am. ET. Investors will be keen to note any indications of a job market that’s recovering from the winter slumber, even as the Labor Department prepares to release an unemployment report on Friday.
Investors expect that the labor market will have added 195,000 jobs compared with 139,000 registered in February, as Reuters reports.
The price of MannKind Corp’s shares almost doubled to hit $7.94, having gained 97.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday. The company’s shares soared after its inhaled drug for treatment of diabetes was given a clean bill of health by US health advisers.
S&P 500 e-mini futures grew 2.5 points to stand slightly above the fair value position, a method of assessing share pricing by considering factors such as interest rates and dividends. Dow Jones industrial was 24 points higher while NASDAQ 100 futures added 8.25 points.
But Witold Bahrke, senior strategist at Copenhagen-based PFA Asset Management is quoted by Bloomberg as saying about the latest growth of US stocks, “Growth appears not too strong to feed the Fed’s hawks but neither too slow to question the recovery, re-emphasizing the sweet-spot concept -- which should be the most favorable environment for risky assets in 2014.”
High-Frequency Trading Mainly Hurts The Traders And Short-Term Investors
Not to deflate the highly admirable “Flash” book of Michael Lewis, but front-running on Wall Street, which is what high-frequency trading is all about and what it really intends to be, is old news. Front-running is one of the oldest tricks in the market, closely following the more notorious and widespread illicit insider trading.
What’s new is that speedy price scalping is now accomplished much faster, within nanoseconds, thanks to the latest technology and help from smart algorithm manipulations – and its continued free reign in the otherwise closely regulated industry. Where are all the market sleuths and regulators that have been so blind to what Michael Lewis has uncovered?
The flash traders aren’t in hiding. They are in fact proud of what they have been able to achieve in the stock market that has bewildered a lot of people. But who really gets hurt from such so-called high-frequency trading?
Not so much the small individual investor, to be sure. But the largest victims are the professional traders and short-term investors among the institutional investors who are major heavyweights in stock investing, and whose strategies matter most to the market. It is the insight and advanced peek into these big investors’ massive scale of buying and selling that high-frequency traders lust after as it’s pure gold to their bottom lines.
Both traders and short-term investors who invariably whirl in and out of financial securities are victimized in that they end up paying a higher price over a short window or limited time for what they buy. But for long term investors, the impact is much less and not as dramatic on their total returns since they don’t depend on quick returns.
Long-term investing has proved to be the most rewarding investment strategy, come high- or low-frequency trading. What counts the most to the long-term investors is the quality of earnings and attractive fundamentals that drive revenues and profits. In most cases, their stock portfolios spiral higher in the span of five years to 10 years, or more.
Unless the individual investors are short-term oriented or engage in market timing, the impact of the higher-frequency trades on their transactions are pretty much insignificant. And the small investors’ market behavior matters much less to the fast traders as their transactions are miniscule compared with those of the large managers of mutual funds, private and government pension funds and major activist investors.
To repeat, front-running is old hat, but what’s new is the sudden decision by government agencies such as the FBI, Securities and Exchange Commission, and the New York Attorney General to suddenly launch separate investigations to ferret out possible criminal behavior among the fast traders.
One aspect of the probe is to detefmine whether these front runners are in fact guilty of insider trading. No doubt it’s admirable that they have started to probe into fast trading and its impact and legitimacy, but one wonders where they have been all these many decades when front-running has been among the most lucrative trickeries in the market.
The paramount question is what is enabling and abetting high-frequency trading? A major source of data that the flash traders pounce on can be traced to the major stock exchanges which in fact share such proprietary material to high-frequency trading companies that aims to stay ahead of everyone else in trading securities. If that source of premium information that aren’t otherwise available to everyone else is plugged or banned, a big part of the problem would be resolved.
It’s that simple. Simply stop the exchanges from sharing and deploying such material information in violation of the privacy of investors. Clearly, if there are areas of the market that need to be urgently regulated, high-frequency trading is one of them.
So is the stock market rigged?
That’s a far-fetched assumption and difficult to prove — and a gross exaggeration. But what’s clearly visible is that most investors continue to make money from stock investing despite the market’s volatility. Over the years, investors have made tremendous retuns from the market powered by the persistent climb by the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500-stock index, and NASDAQ.
True, there have been all kinds of market irregularities, illegal trading and distortions, and crashes along the way. Insider trading, for one, is singularly a dark side of the market that continues to bedevil investors and the market.
But then again, if you track the market’s various major stock price charts over these many years, they have all been on the rise and climbing to new all-time highs – rigged or not.