Is this for real? 10k to 5mm in one year!

New comment
 
So I wrote one of my first EA's, it seemed to favor USDCAD, so I tweaked and tweaked until I got the attached results. Can this be for real or is backtesting just a way we lie to ourselves about potential results?
 

"I tweaked and tweaked"

Run it forward for the next month on a demo account and give us another report.

Be sure to remember to attach it next time.

 
over-optimization.
 
yes we'd like to see it, have another shot at sending it.
 
tomcat1762:
So I wrote one of my first EA's, it seemed to favor USDCAD, so I tweaked and tweaked until I got the attached results. Can this be for real or is backtesting just a way we lie to ourselves about potential results?


Back testing does have limitations, the main issues are:

1) Over-optimisation - i.e. setting parameters based on historical patterns that will never happen again - or more typically, missing a situation that results in a vicious drawdown that is lurking somewhere in the next week/month/quarter of upcoming data!

2) Metaquotes history data is a little 'kinder' to EA's than single-broker

3) Some EA types just dont backtest accurately at all - I dont pretend to know why. Most common situation is, "EA does great in back testing, bombs in forward". More rarely, an EA that loses on back testing will win well on forward...! These seem to be the EA's that retain price & win/loss data in complex arrays, working out S&R levels on the fly and trading between them - but again I cant explain the 'why' of this - just is!


Having said that, you have to start somewhere & opening a chart based on a backtest can reveal a pattern of why your EA is losing

My 2c worth

-BB-

 
phy:

"I tweaked and tweaked"

Run it forward for the next month on a demo account and give us another report.

Be sure to remember to attach it next time.


I tried to attach the file, it is an htm, i put the file name etc in the 'attach file' box on the bottom, but it did not attach it. Do I have to press something besides 'Update' ? File size is 38KB
 
Strategy Tester Report
SoSimpleItsStupidv33
AlpariUS-Demo (Build 211)

Symbol USDCAD (US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2007.03.05 00:00 - 2008.03.05 23:55 (2007.03.05 - 2008.03.06)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters TakeProfit=130; StopLoss=90; Lots=10; longshort=-1; lossstreak=0; flip=2; total=1; ticket=0; pricestep=10; target=10; slstep=0; tpstep=10; adxtarget=35; macdrange=1; minlot=1; lotincrease=2; lotdecrease=2; maxlot=590;
Bars in test 69653 Ticks modelled 921300 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 5092389.21 Gross profit 9240865.98 Gross loss -4148476.77
Profit factor 2.23 Expected payoff 101847.78
Absolute drawdown 4819.07 Maximal drawdown 1657182.18 (96.38%) Relative drawdown 96.38% (1657182.18)
Total trades 50 Short positions (won %) 50 (52.00%) Long positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 26 (52.00%) Loss trades (% of total) 24 (48.00%)
Largest profit trade 816465.78 loss trade -576985.77
Average profit trade 355417.92 loss trade -172853.20
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 9 (6094238.39) consecutive losses (loss in money) 8 (-1124978.18)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 6094238.39 (9) consecutive loss (count of losses) -1124978.18 (8)
Average consecutive wins 3 consecutive losses 3

# Time Type Order Size Price S / L T / P Profit Balance
1 2007.03.05 00:00 sell 1 10.00 1.1771 1.1861 1.1641
2 2007.03.20 15:15 t/p 1 10.00 1.1641 1.1861 1.1641 11243.84 21243.84
3 2007.03.20 21:45 sell 2 20.00 1.1614 1.1704 1.1484
4 2007.04.10 11:53 t/p 2 20.00 1.1484 1.1704 1.1484 22854.15 44097.99
5 2007.04.12 00:55 sell 3 40.00 1.1398 1.1488 1.1268
6 2007.04.18 16:10 t/p 3 40.00 1.1268 1.1488 1.1268 46229.88 90327.87
7 2007.04.23 08:50 sell 4 80.00 1.1236 1.1326 1.1106
8 2007.04.30 14:41 t/p 4 80.00 1.1106 1.1326 1.1106 93945.20 184273.08
9 2007.04.30 19:35 sell 5 160.00 1.1082 1.1172 1.0952
10 2007.05.18 10:06 t/p 5 160.00 1.0952 1.1172 1.0952 191549.73 375822.81
11 2007.05.21 12:42 sell 6 320.00 1.0852 1.0942 1.0722
12 2007.05.29 15:52 t/p 6 320.00 1.0722 1.0942 1.0722 389327.56 765150.37
13 2007.05.29 19:35 sell 7 590.00 1.0730 1.0820 1.0600
14 2007.06.04 08:04 t/p 7 590.00 1.0600 1.0820 1.0600 725456.46 1490606.83
15 2007.06.05 04:57 sell 8 590.00 1.0588 1.0678 1.0458
16 2007.06.08 12:12 s/l 8 590.00 1.0678 1.0678 1.0458 -495641.73 994965.10
17 2007.06.11 00:26 sell 9 295.00 1.0613 1.0703 1.0483
18 2007.06.13 09:51 s/l 9 295.00 1.0703 1.0703 1.0483 -247760.74 747204.35
19 2007.06.19 04:20 sell 10 147.50 1.0712 1.0802 1.0582
20 2007.06.28 22:28 t/p 10 147.50 1.0582 1.0802 1.0582 182030.43 929234.78
21 2007.07.02 13:06 sell 11 295.00 1.0606 1.0696 1.0476
22 2007.07.06 16:26 t/p 11 295.00 1.0476 1.0696 1.0476 366976.48 1296211.26
23 2007.07.09 21:26 sell 12 590.00 1.0489 1.0579 1.0359
24 2007.07.11 08:57 s/l 12 590.00 1.0579 1.0579 1.0359 -501194.41 795016.85
25 2007.07.11 23:53 sell 13 295.00 1.0552 1.0642 1.0422
26 2007.07.16 16:23 t/p 13 295.00 1.0422 1.0642 1.0422 368722.96 1163739.82
27 2007.07.17 03:01 sell 14 590.00 1.0440 1.0530 1.0310
28 2007.07.26 16:23 s/l 14 590.00 1.0530 1.0530 1.0310 -500967.49 662772.32
29 2007.07.30 16:38 sell 15 295.00 1.0684 1.0774 1.0554
30 2007.08.02 00:17 t/p 15 295.00 1.0554 1.0774 1.0554 364120.71 1026893.03
31 2007.08.02 01:16 sell 16 590.00 1.0566 1.0656 1.0436
32 2007.08.14 17:02 s/l 16 590.00 1.0656 1.0656 1.0436 -495258.59 531634.44
33 2007.08.17 11:36 sell 17 295.00 1.0776 1.0866 1.0646
34 2007.08.17 14:26 t/p 17 295.00 1.0646 1.0866 1.0646 360296.88 891931.32
35 2007.08.20 09:20 sell 18 590.00 1.0595 1.0685 1.0465
36 2007.08.21 23:20 s/l 18 590.00 1.0685 1.0685 1.0465 -496611.30 395320.02
37 2007.08.24 00:27 sell 19 295.00 1.0537 1.0627 1.0407
38 2007.08.28 17:20 s/l 19 295.00 1.0627 1.0627 1.0407 -249534.78 145785.23
39 2007.09.04 07:00 sell 20 145.78 1.0532 1.0622 1.0402
40 2007.09.12 13:47 t/p 20 145.78 1.0402 1.0622 1.0402 182801.56 328586.79
41 2007.09.12 22:36 sell 21 291.57 1.0369 1.0459 1.0239
42 2007.09.18 14:33 t/p 21 291.57 1.0239 1.0459 1.0239 371156.85 699743.65
43 2007.09.20 06:36 sell 22 583.14 1.0137 1.0227 1.0007
44 2007.09.20 14:15 t/p 22 583.14 1.0007 1.0227 1.0007 757551.71 1457295.36
45 2007.09.27 09:55 sell 23 590.00 1.0020 1.0110 0.9890
46 2007.10.05 13:00 t/p 23 590.00 0.9890 1.0110 0.9890 778013.63 2235308.99
47 2007.10.09 00:26 sell 24 590.00 0.9873 0.9963 0.9743
48 2007.10.11 16:25 t/p 24 590.00 0.9743 0.9963 0.9743 788514.85 3023823.84
49 2007.10.12 02:55 sell 25 590.00 0.9766 0.9856 0.9636
50 2007.10.19 17:14 t/p 25 590.00 0.9636 0.9856 0.9636 798077.25 3821901.09
51 2007.10.23 06:40 sell 26 590.00 0.9767 0.9857 0.9637
52 2007.10.23 14:04 t/p 26 590.00 0.9637 0.9857 0.9637 795890.84 4617791.93
53 2007.10.25 15:20 sell 27 590.00 0.9656 0.9746 0.9526
54 2007.10.29 18:41 t/p 27 590.00 0.9526 0.9746 0.9526 805765.90 5423557.83
55 2007.10.31 06:09 sell 28 590.00 0.9541 0.9631 0.9411
56 2007.11.02 12:00 t/p 28 590.00 0.9411 0.9631 0.9411 816465.78 6240023.62
57 2007.11.07 08:46 sell 29 590.00 0.9113 0.9203 0.8983
58 2007.11.07 20:12 s/l 29 590.00 0.9203 0.9203 0.8983 -576985.77 5663037.85
59 2007.11.09 19:15 sell 30 295.00 0.9411 0.9501 0.9281
60 2007.11.12 05:47 s/l 30 295.00 0.9501 0.9501 0.9281 -279264.59 5383773.26
61 2007.11.12 10:13 sell 31 147.50 0.9479 0.9569 0.9349
62 2007.11.12 12:12 s/l 31 147.50 0.9569 0.9569 0.9349 -138729.23 5245044.03
63 2007.11.19 03:39 sell 32 73.75 0.9738 0.9828 0.9608
64 2007.11.19 16:09 s/l 32 73.75 0.9828 0.9828 0.9608 -67529.76 5177514.27
65 2007.11.21 00:20 sell 33 36.87 0.9812 0.9902 0.9682
66 2007.11.21 14:30 s/l 33 36.87 0.9902 0.9902 0.9682 -33511.41 5144002.86
67 2007.11.22 21:05 sell 34 18.43 0.9843 0.9933 0.9713
68 2007.11.27 10:49 s/l 34 18.43 0.9933 0.9933 0.9713 -16667.36 5127335.51
69 2007.11.28 08:35 sell 35 9.21 0.9962 1.0052 0.9832
70 2007.12.04 12:51 s/l 35 9.21 1.0052 1.0052 0.9832 -8216.33 5119119.18
71 2007.12.07 19:21 sell 36 4.60 1.0059 1.0149 0.9929
72 2007.12.11 20:23 s/l 36 4.60 1.0149 1.0149 0.9929 -4073.73 5115045.44
73 2007.12.14 05:45 sell 37 2.30 1.0193 1.0283 1.0063
74 2007.12.17 16:00 t/p 37 2.30 1.0063 1.0283 1.0063 2972.45 5118017.89
75 2007.12.18 05:59 sell 38 4.60 1.0058 1.0148 0.9928
76 2007.12.21 16:59 t/p 38 4.60 0.9928 1.0148 0.9928 6035.09 5124052.98
77 2007.12.21 21:27 sell 39 9.21 0.9933 1.0023 0.9803
78 2007.12.27 15:00 t/p 39 9.21 0.9803 1.0023 0.9803 12241.76 5136294.74
79 2007.12.28 02:00 sell 40 18.43 0.9811 0.9901 0.9681
80 2008.01.02 09:01 s/l 40 18.43 0.9901 0.9901 0.9681 -16687.55 5119607.19
81 2008.01.02 21:10 sell 41 9.21 0.9918 1.0008 0.9788
82 2008.01.04 16:11 s/l 41 9.21 1.0008 1.0008 0.9788 -8260.29 5111346.90
83 2008.01.07 16:00 sell 42 4.60 1.0004 1.0094 0.9874
84 2008.01.09 15:06 s/l 42 4.60 1.0094 1.0094 0.9874 -4096.35 5107250.55
85 2008.01.10 08:22 sell 43 2.30 1.0101 1.0191 0.9971
86 2008.01.11 13:11 s/l 43 2.30 1.0191 1.0191 0.9971 -2030.03 5105220.52
87 2008.01.17 04:46 sell 44 1.15 1.0240 1.0330 1.0110
88 2008.01.21 12:04 s/l 44 1.15 1.0330 1.0330 1.0110 -1000.77 5104219.75
89 2008.01.25 17:14 sell 45 1.00 1.0066 1.0156 0.9936
90 2008.01.30 14:39 t/p 45 1.00 0.9936 1.0156 0.9936 1309.90 5105529.65
91 2008.01.30 22:03 sell 46 2.00 0.9921 1.0011 0.9791
92 2008.01.31 14:34 s/l 46 2.00 1.0011 1.0011 0.9791 -1794.78 5103734.86
93 2008.02.01 01:47 sell 47 1.00 1.0028 1.0118 0.9898
94 2008.02.07 13:55 s/l 47 1.00 1.0118 1.0118 0.9898 -886.36 5102848.50
95 2008.02.13 01:05 sell 48 1.00 1.0013 1.0103 0.9883
96 2008.02.15 19:16 s/l 48 1.00 1.0103 1.0103 0.9883 -888.78 5101959.72
97 2008.02.18 22:00 sell 49 1.00 1.0077 1.0167 0.9947
98 2008.02.19 20:58 s/l 49 1.00 1.0167 1.0167 0.9947 -884.62 5101075.10
99 2008.02.21 08:06 sell 50 1.00 1.0126 1.0216 0.9996
100 2008.03.05 01:18 t/p 50 1.00 0.9996 1.0216 0.9996 1314.11 5102389.21
Files:
v33b.txt  8 kb
 

Maximal and relative drawdown is 96.38%?

Sounds awfully risky despite the amazing results...


And biggest position 590 LOTS? $5900 per pip?

Sounds quite unreal later on for a real live account...

 
doblece:

Maximal and relative drawdown is 96.38%?

Sounds awfully risky despite the amazing results...


And biggest position 590 LOTS? $5900 per pip?

Sounds quite unreal later on for a real live account...




Ya thats pretty unrealistic. hahah

 
Yup, forward testing on a demo is the only way to know how an EA "feels". I agree with previous comments, though... I wouldn't want to be on the hook with 590 lots open.
 
Never trade martingale systems. Very simple. Very true. Even if you have a statistical advantage to every trade taken in the martnigale and you do all sorts of account safety, eventually you end up on the wrong side of a string. Martingale systems just delay the loss, they don't help the balance long term.
12
New comment
Reason: