Can Martingale/Average Cost Systems work long term?

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There seems to be a pretty big divide between people who like these systems and those who think they will eventually blow up, so...

Just a bit of fun to see peoples opinions on if this type of system can be/has been traded successfully long term...

 

Any Martingale can work if you measure your account margin to control maximum simultaneous trades opened, using microlots (0.01 lots), using a passive pair (like EURGBP) looking at its average daily range and calculating maximum trades to the worst case scenario without blow up your account. Even more, you can start one trade blindly and follow the Martingale. Forget about indicators!

By the way, I use 10points3 Martingale EA, it's my preferred one.

 

can you attach yor setting you use please.

 
chomper:
can you attach yor setting you use please.

https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/174975/page259

Use multiplier = 1.5 (instead 2, too dangerous) and TP 50 instead. For general rule, when I use multiplier 1.5, I get the pips multiplied by a factor of 1.7 or above to get the optimum TP.

 

I voted for option 2, if your pocket is deep enough you can use any strategy

 

Yes, absolutely, martingale can work if done properly. The main reason is that currencies do not trend to infinity, but are cyclical in nature, so if it's done in the long term and risk is managed properly, there is NO reason why it would not work. Having said that, however, such a system has to be diluted to the point where it is not clear whether its remaining "martingaleness" provides any advantage or not.

 
elricogrande:
Yes, absolutely, martingale can work if done properly. The main reason is that currencies do not trend to infinity, but are cyclical in nature, so if it's done in the long term and risk is managed properly, there is NO reason why it would not work. Having said that, however, such a system has to be diluted to the point where it is not clear whether its remaining "martingaleness" provides any advantage or not.

Currencies don't trend to infinity, all they have to do is to trend for a sufficiently long time to wipe your account, just once. The "danger" in 10point3 is it sets the opening criteria to a single factor, ie 30 or whatever Pips is set to, even when the trending is strong and in the wrong direction.

As an aside, I wonder if anyone has experimented with automating for criteria for setting the ReverseSignal flag (which looks only like a manually settable variable)?

 

What would you define as long term?

How many trades 1000,10000,100000+

Define the that and you might find an answer.

Do an google search for the "wizard of odds" there is an explaination as to why it will not last.

Cheers

Beno

 

Max movement without retrace

Hello.For one strong Martingale system we need to save your Equity- for example open one sell, but the trend is in other direction, after 50 pips we repeat- open sell but with double value, if the trend continue we repeat ect.Well after one correction we get the profit... simple and clear, But When we start this correction after 50 or after 5 000 pips?How many pips we can expect 5 or 500 pips in other direction?Hmmm I know many more of us alredy think before for this... yes this is not The Holy Graill, But- if you can get "little" more stats information, we can build good strategy.My idea and we need of EA for this- How many pips is Maximum trend without retrace of 10-20-50 pips?Yes only for Before, for History period but this is will be great base for future work.I`m not mql programmer and please no laught, but I give discription for my ideia-This EA is Not for trading, we just need of stat Information;One variable- $reverse- in this variable we can write How many pips we need after the trend ( this value is in your MM and we create strategy for this results) and EA calculate the test for this value- For my example $reverse=30 pips; Well this is the procedure- EA start and get current price- for example 1.5000 ok in next bar ( in tick, 1m, 5m or more but little time frame give more accurate results ) get the price again for example 1.5050 and identify the bullish trend ok.Next bar EA chck- price is 1.5100, evry current Max pair value is addin in one Current Temp $curentmaxprice, next price is 1.5080=$currentprice the difference between... sorry I`m php/mysql programmer but I never write mql code but I think we need simmilar to this

$reverse=30; // the pips reverse factor who we need for x2, x4, x8, x16 ect close with profit

$currentprice=0; //we start with 0 but in evry period check actuality this

$currentmaxprice=0; //we start with 0 but after evry new check we calculate

$maxpricetotal=0; //maximum trend movement without reverse with 30 pips

//may be one while here

if($currentprice>$currentmaxprice){$currentmaxprice=$currentprice;}

if($currentmaxprice-$currentprice<=$reverse){$currentmaxprice=$maxpricetotalcurrent;

$newagain=1; //variable for epty currentmaxprice and start again the count the pips in oher direction

if($maxpricetotalcurrent>$maxpricetotal){$maxpricetotalcurrent=$maxpricetotal;}

In the end in $maxpricetotal we have The Maximum value pips for one trend Without retrace from 30 pips... If this period is 300 and we use a 50 pips for your martingalle system we stop to the 6 level 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, and this is will be in your MM;If the results is 600 but we cannot save the capital for 20 levels your step will be for example 100 pips- 6 levels again.

Well... thats it... in advance very thanks if anyone can help for programing and give many more ideas- if we have a stat calculation for really long period behind 10 years for example and if the focus is one exotic pair AUD/CAD or AUD/NZD with 2 500 - 3 000 pips movement for last few years we can create good and ... little of little more safetly strategy for your capital.

 

Expert Advisors/Martindale/Gambling

I am a complete Newbie at this Forex thing but just to stir the pot a bit, I have noticed in looking at the various threads that and the inability to program Metatrader4 language figure prominently.

So to go in reverse order. I was brought up on Basic out of Black Doss and the ravages of LooseWomen, Alcohol and the aging process have done nothing for my brain cells.

I might perhaps be able to put something together but I would be wasting too much time on the programming and debugging and not enough on the algorithm.

However gentle reader I came across a program called Visual Traders Studio which appears to do this for you, it cost me $AU200 but I consider it money well spent.

With regard to Martindale I put together a Macro to play Roulette.

I was betting on Red and Black ,and playing against the computer was making about $200/hour.

So I logged on to one of the Casino sites expecting to make my fortune.

The first thing I noticed was that they restricted the minimum and maximum bets such that if you had a bad run ,your next bet would be over the maximum and you did your cash.

The other thing was, that they appeared to know you were running a Macro.

Manually placing the bets was no problem, but after the macro had been running for three or four bets the site would lock up, you would have to reboot and do your cash.

Gave that away.

So what's with Forex then!!

redpigg

 

what?

what the fish are u talking about?

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