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Jason Smith / Profil

Jason Smith
Jason Smith
5 (2)
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1 Jahr
Erfahrung
21
Produkte
19
Demoversionen
2
Jobs
0
Signale
0
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Innovating the Future of Trading with Precision and Strategy

Welcome to my MQL5 profile! I’m TraderSmith, a passionate and results-driven trader committed to developing Expert Advisors (EAs) that transform complex market data into simple, actionable trading decisions.

Through developing trading bots, I aim to eliminate the emotional biases that often lead to impulsive decisions.
Every strategy I design is rooted in robust market analysis, precise risk management, and an understanding of market dynamics, ensuring that each trade has a solid foundation.

I focus on creating tools that are adaptable to a wide range of trading styles and risk profiles.
From high-frequency scalping to trend-following strategies, my EAs are built to execute trades with speed, accuracy, and discipline—freeing you from emotional reactions and enabling you to trade with confidence.

Every Expert Advisor I develop is designed with a clear trading philosophy.
I avoid random, “black-box” approaches and instead focus on precise, rule-based systems that are backtested, validated, and optimized to adapt to current market conditions.
Whether you’re executing strategies with pending orders, focusing on ATR-based risk management, or leveraging complex thresholds, my EAs are built to excel in dynamic market environments.

Comprehensive Support and Education
Trading is a journey, and I’m here to support you along the way.
Not only do I provide customer support to help you with any setup or technical questions, but I also offer educational resources and guidance on how to fully leverage the bots in various market conditions.
My goal is to ensure you not only use the tools effectively but also understand the underlying strategies that drive them.

My Commitment to You
As an active trader, I am constantly analyzing market trends and refining my tools to keep up with the latest advancements in algorithmic trading.
My mission is to give you the edge you need—whether you’re managing a prop account, building a portfolio, or just getting started.
I’m committed to creating robust, high-performance solutions that allow you to trade smarter, not harder.

I believe in building long-term relationships with my clients, so your feedback and success are always important to me.
If you have any questions, need advice, or simply want to discuss strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to ensure your trading journey is as successful as possible.
Thank you for considering my tools for your trading endeavors. I look forward to helping you achieve your trading goals!

Through algorithmic trading, you will develop discipline and patience—core traits for consistent performance. These bots will enforce rule-based execution, removing emotional bias and promoting data-driven decision-making. Over time, you'll learn that edge comes from systematic testing, risk management, and long-term consistency. Each trade, whether a win or a loss, becomes part of a feedback loop that sharpens both your strategy and your mindset. Once you’ve set up the bot, let it work.
Avoid the urge to micromanage every trade. Trust in the strategy and parameters you’ve defined.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
model d2213356 successfully graduated from shadow to canary after 10 cycles of observation, meaning it's now ready for limited live deployment.

AUDNZD is showing a strong uptrend that's been running for 2 cycles now, with perfect 100% alignment across all timeframes.

Risk is assessed as elevated, but the system is still taking a buy signal with a 60% position multiplier, keeping some room for caution.
System is confident, promoted a new model, and is taking a measured buy position.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.07.06
This system is for sale -
A rare, original strategy built from the ground up with a refined, elite-level design. Created for traders who want a real edge.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.07.06
This operates in just three clicks, using batch files to launch the Markov (The Allocator), the dashboard, and the Python bot.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
The trading system is running its 10th analysis cycle for the Australian stock index (AUS200), and it's basically doing a multi‑timeframe health check before deciding what to do.
It looks at several timeframes (from daily down to 5‑minute charts) to get a consensus, and most are neutral, though the 15‑minute shows a weak downtrend and the 5‑minute a weak uptrend—so nothing decisive.

The system then builds and tests a new "challenger" trading model, which performs well enough to be accepted, but it's put into a 10‑cycle "shadow mode" to be observed rather than used immediately.

The real action is a CANARY alert: the system detects a drift (statistical change) in the data for AUS200, with a high divergence (100% disagreement) and a KL score of 14.4, which is a red flag.
As a defensive measure, it cuts the position size by 50%—so the allocation drops from 0.16 to 0.084, and after an additional 10% multiplier, the final exposure is only 10% of normal.

Despite the drift, the overall risk is judged as "NORMAL" and the action is "HOLD" (no new trades), meaning the system is staying put but with much smaller stakes until it gets more confidence that the market behaviour has stabilised.
In short: the system spotted something unusual in the data, got cautious, slashed its position, and is now watching and waiting.
The AI models have been learning continuously refining their performance and adapting to market conditions.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
HMM (Hidden Markov Model)Markov went live at 2:00 AM GMT (demo account) for the start of the new trading week.
These are the results so far.
The models have been learning for approximately four months.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
HMM Canary Alert
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
Retraining Canary
This Allocator runs a 5-model pipeline where:

Production is the live trading model (100% allocation) that generates your primary signal
Champion is the best historical performer used for validation (25% allocation)
Canary acts as an early warning system—a deliberately poor model used as a contrarian indicator (if it agrees with PRODUCTION, that's a red flag)
Archived stores retired models that are kept for reference but no longer used in live decisions
Shadow runs in parallel without affecting trades, allowing you to test new models or strategies in real-time without risking capital

Together, PRODUCTION drives your trades, CHAMPION validates the signal, CANARY warns of danger, while ARCHIVED and SHADOW handle historical tracking and experimental testing respectively.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.07.06
This system is for sale (Python backend)
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Markov Matrix
· 1
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
HMM dashboard -
Even though the dashboard runs inside a Python shell, it can be accessed through a browser thanks to ngrok tunneling, which provides a secure login.
Alternatively, you can interact with it directly via the shell itself.
However, the browser option offers the added benefit of remote access with authentication.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
HMM (Hidden Markov Model) Python Back-end.

Despite a STRONG_UPTREND market regime with 100% alignment, the system is holding off on new allocations due to elevated risk and recent model degradation (production model replaced).
Position sizing is reduced to 50% as a defensive measure.
Bullish trend but risk-off stance – system holds due to elevated risk and recent model under performance, protecting capital until conditions improve.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.07.03
This Markov Model with Hidden States is for SALE
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Thought of the day: Hope you didn't dump your Bitcoin holdings.

There's been a lot of fear talk lately — some of it might be justified, but it could also have been a way to buy coins on the cheap.
MicroStrategy might have been in on it too, possibly buying coins through another business entity and averaging down across multiple accounts.
Plenty of youtubers anouncing they are closing their bc holdings in big losses, seem a bit suspicious to me. Time will tell.
Was 57 k the real bottom?
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
The HMM Allocator is a sophisticated trading system that uses Hidden Markov Models to detect market regimes and make allocation decisions.
It analyzes multiple timeframes simultaneously to determine the most likely market state and execute optimal trades.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Hidden Markov Model: Trading Gold
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Thought of the day:

Socratic Irony -The speaker pretends to be ignorant or less intelligent than they really are.
They ask seemingly naive questions to expose the flaws in the other person's logic.

Classic example:
Socrates would say, I am such a fool, I don't understand justice at all.
Please, wise friend, explain it to me.
Then, through questioning, he'd expose that the "wise" friend actually had no idea what they were talking about.

The classic MQL5 forum example:
A user with minimal trading history posts, Forgive my inexperience, but can someone explain why this EA's backtest shows 90% win rate when the forward test is bleeding?
I'm sure I'm missing something obvious." Through a series of carefully worded follow-ups, they proceed to dismantle the EA's logic, expose over fitting, and question the developer's understanding of risk management — all while maintaining the pose of a humble novice.
Then get banned for it
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Hidden Markov Bots Forex
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Treat your men as you would your own beloved sons, and they will follow you into the deepest valley.— Sun Tzu

Every step forward could trigger hidden dangers — you walk carefully because betrayal is everywhere.
Recognize manipulation and treachery before it reaches the battlefield — sometimes the best defense is awareness.

In fact I think we'd be fooling ourselves.
If we had an audience this large and didn't realize that there were some enemies present
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.07.08
If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by — Sun Tzu
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Hmm - Hidden Markov Model (Python shell's)
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
The system handles multiple assets by running a separate Hidden Markov Model instance for each individual symbol.
You have full control to build your own custom watchlist, giving you the flexibility to track any combination of assets that matter to you.

Whether you want to monitor major indices like the S&P 500 and FTSE, energy commodities such as WTI and Brent crude, or precious metals including gold and silver, the system lets you add or remove symbols effortlessly.
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Markov Bot default setting -

Markov.py --symbol AUDCAD --fixed-lots 0.2 --journal audcad.db --magic 1 --auto-reconnect --mt5-timeout 60 --mt5-retries 5 --mt5-path \"C:\Program Files\MetaTrader 8 IC Markets Global\terminal64.exe\" --max-positions 1 --quiet --signal-max-age 7000 --zero-on-hold

Full Trading System Available for Purchase -

The suite includes:
A Hidden Markov Model-based allocator that detects market regimes and manages portfolio allocation.
An interactive dashboard for monitoring system performance and signals.
A Python trading bot that executes trades based on HMM outputs.
An MT5 bot — currently undergoing a rewrite to improve compatibility and performance with the HMM
Jason Smith
Jason Smith 2026.06.29
Dm me for more information
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Hidden Markov Model Python Bot (part 1)