RBR Luck or Edge MT4

RBR Luck or Edge reads the closed trades in your account history and answers one question: is your result an edge, or is it within the range of chance? It shows the 90% range of your average result, the result without your best trades, your losing streaks and your drawdown compared with 2,000 random orders of the same trades. It is an indicator, so it runs next to your Expert Advisor on the same chart. It sends no orders and does not connect to the internet.

What it shows

  • A verdict in one sentence: too few trades, no edge in this data, not known yet, or edge likely - with the average per trade and its 90% range.
  • The chance that the true average is positive (10,000 bootstrap samples).
  • Win rate, average, total, profit factor and standard deviation.
  • Without the best trades: the total without the best 3 and the best 5 trades. A result that disappears without three trades was carried by a few lucky ones.
  • The longest losing streak and how often a streak that long happens at your win rate.
  • The largest drawdown compared with 2,000 random orders of the same trades.
  • Trades needed: how many trades it takes to tell your average from zero.

Result unit

  • R from each trade's stop loss (default): 1 R is the loss the trade would have had at its own stop loss. Trades without a usable stop loss are counted with the median risk of the others, and the panel says how many.
  • R as a fixed amount or as a % of the balance at entry, for traders who do not set stop losses in the platform.
  • Account currency.

Filters: period by close time, all symbols or only the chart's symbol, magic numbers and a text contained in the comment. Enter one magic number to test one Expert Advisor (0 = manual trades), or several separated by commas (for example 660001, 650004) to test a portfolio of strategies together: the panel then also shows the contribution of each strategy (trades, average and total). In R each trade counts at its own strategy's risk, so with a different risk per strategy the total in R is not the total in money.

How to use it

  • Attach RBR Luck or Edge to any chart. It reads the account history and shows the result at once.
  • Choose the period, symbols, magic number and unit in the panel and press CALCULATE. The result updates by itself when a trade closes.
  • The HTML report and the list of trades (CSV) are saved in Common\Files\RBR_LE.

Notes

  • MetaTrader 4 gives programs only the period chosen in the Account History tab: right-click it and choose All History. The MT4 history keeps only the last stop loss of each order; for orders opened while the indicator is running it remembers the stop loss from the entry.
  • Below 20 trades no statistic can tell anything yet; a verdict usually takes hundreds.
  • The order of trades matters for streaks and drawdown, so trades are taken in the order they were closed.
  • The panel and the report follow the terminal language (English, Polish, German) or the language chosen in the inputs.
  • A result describes the past and is not a forecast.
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