Hasanboy Beknazarov
- Developer en MQL5.com
- Uzbekistán
- 143003
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11+ años
experiencia
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3
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14
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2884
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Developer
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MQL5.com
Crear un nuevo trabajo para mí: https://www.mql5.com/es/job/new?prefered=skilful_coder
Tutorial: https://www.mql5.com/es/articles/117
Cómo financiar la cuenta: https://www.mql5.com/es/articles/302
Tutorial: https://www.mql5.com/es/articles/117
Cómo financiar la cuenta: https://www.mql5.com/es/articles/302
Hasanboy Beknazarov
Predicting Future Prices on the Forex Chart
This is the closest and most painful topic for traders 🙂
📊 Research (Trader Statistics)
70–90% of retail traders lose money
The main reason is not lack of accuracy, but poor risk management
📈 Realistic Forecast Accuracy
Basic technical analysis: 45–50%
Combined approach
(trend + session + volatility): 52–58%
Professional systems
(algorithms + risk control): 55–65%
High-frequency / institutional trading: 60–70%
(but this is inaccessible to retail traders)
🎯 Very Important Point
In Forex, 60% accuracy is considered extremely high.
🧠 Mathematical Reality
If:
Win rate = 55%
Risk/Reward = 1:2
👉 You will be consistently profitable in the long run.
🎲 What does 50% mean?
50% is a coin toss
Up ↕ down
No edge at all
🎯 What does 55% mean?
55% is an edge
It may look small, but mathematically it makes a huge difference
📊 Example
1,000 trades
55% wins → 550 wins / 450 losses
If:
Loss = 1R
Win = 2R
Result:
Profit = (550 × 2) − (450 × 1) = +650R
👉 Conclusion
This is the real secret of professional trading:
not chasing accuracy, but edge + risk management.
This is the closest and most painful topic for traders 🙂
📊 Research (Trader Statistics)
70–90% of retail traders lose money
The main reason is not lack of accuracy, but poor risk management
📈 Realistic Forecast Accuracy
Basic technical analysis: 45–50%
Combined approach
(trend + session + volatility): 52–58%
Professional systems
(algorithms + risk control): 55–65%
High-frequency / institutional trading: 60–70%
(but this is inaccessible to retail traders)
🎯 Very Important Point
In Forex, 60% accuracy is considered extremely high.
🧠 Mathematical Reality
If:
Win rate = 55%
Risk/Reward = 1:2
👉 You will be consistently profitable in the long run.
🎲 What does 50% mean?
50% is a coin toss
Up ↕ down
No edge at all
🎯 What does 55% mean?
55% is an edge
It may look small, but mathematically it makes a huge difference
📊 Example
1,000 trades
55% wins → 550 wins / 450 losses
If:
Loss = 1R
Win = 2R
Result:
Profit = (550 × 2) − (450 × 1) = +650R
👉 Conclusion
This is the real secret of professional trading:
not chasing accuracy, but edge + risk management.
