Hasanboy Beknazarov / Профиль

Predicting Future Prices on the Forex Chart

This is the closest and most painful topic for traders 🙂

📊 Research (Trader Statistics)

70–90% of retail traders lose money

The main reason is not lack of accuracy, but poor risk management

📈 Realistic Forecast Accuracy

Basic technical analysis: 45–50%

Combined approach
(trend + session + volatility): 52–58%

Professional systems
(algorithms + risk control): 55–65%

High-frequency / institutional trading: 60–70%
(but this is inaccessible to retail traders)

🎯 Very Important Point

In Forex, 60% accuracy is considered extremely high.

🧠 Mathematical Reality

If:

Win rate = 55%

Risk/Reward = 1:2

👉 You will be consistently profitable in the long run.

🎲 What does 50% mean?

50% is a coin toss

Up ↕ down

No edge at all

🎯 What does 55% mean?

55% is an edge

It may look small, but mathematically it makes a huge difference

📊 Example

1,000 trades

55% wins → 550 wins / 450 losses

If:

Loss = 1R

Win = 2R

Result:

Profit = (550 × 2) − (450 × 1) = +650R

👉 Conclusion

This is the real secret of professional trading:
not chasing accuracy, but edge + risk management.

GOLDEN TROPHY