Timon-pascal Krueger / Blog
Fibonacci extensions are among the most used tools in chart analysis, and the claim behind them is a forecast: after a structure such as a double bottom, price has an elevated tendency to reach certain multiples of the first leg, and the zone from 1.618 to 2.0 is where moves end...
The idea is old and plausible. A trailing stop reacts to price, not to structure, and routinely hands back part of the gain. A structural exit should do better: flatten the position as soon as the second consecutive counter-candle on M5 shows the trade is invalidated...
A breakout setup in the US midday lull showed +0.90 R per trade at a 60% win rate, positive every single year since 2015. It would have been by far the best setup in my system. It was a bug, and the bug is one that any backtest with volume confirmation can reproduce...
"Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?" by Zarattini and Aziz (SSRN 4416622) is probably the most read intraday paper of the last years, and the opening-range breakout it describes turns up in the Market and in the Freelance section every week...
Someone shows you a strategy with a 67% hit rate. Before you ask anything else, ask for the stop and the target. If the stop is twice as far away as the target, 67% is exactly what a coin flip produces...
After this guide PropGuardian runs on one chart of your account, knows your firm's daily loss and drawdown rules and the time your firm's day ends, and you have seen the whole chain once on a demo account: warning, close-all, day lock, instant close of a trade opened while locked...
After this guide you have two MetaTrader 5 terminals on one computer or VPS, one sending its trades and one following them, and you know which journal lines tell you it works. Time needed: about ten minutes including the checks...
An observation from my own trading, and a study I am running on it with more than one participant. When I have been in a move from the start, the pullback looks like a place where I might have to pay twice: I re-enter later, deeper, or not at all, but I add to the position I already have...
The scene has become routine, in the Freelance section here and in my own inbox: a rule in your head, a prompt to a language model, and three minutes later an expert advisor that compiles and wins in the strategy tester. The mistakes in that EA are rarely in the syntax...