Daily price is located in exact 'reversal' Sinkou Span lines of Ichimoku indicator between the following s/r levels:
Span line is above the price indicating the ranging market condition by direction.
D1 price - ranging with waiting for direction:
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0807
(W1) support level with 1.0461 as the next target, and 1.1466 (W1) resistance level.
is on ranging bearish with 1.0461 support level.If D1 price will break 1.0807
support level on close D1 bar so we may see good bearish breakdown of the price movement with next target as 1.0461.If D1 price will break 1.1215 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.If not so the price will be on ranging between the levels.
SUMMARY : reversal
TREND : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.16 19:09
Weekly Outlook for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley is continuing to make a weekly forecast for the
currency pairs making on technical analsysi, fundamental analysis and
for some Morgan Stanley's expectation about what they want for us to do for example sorry.As we see - the expectation for EUR is bearish and for AUD is bearish too (USD is for bullish condition).
USD: "We believe USD strength will be focused against EM and commodity
currencies going forwards, with AxJ particularly underperforming. This
is largely a result of the CNY move, but also reflects growth
differentials and structurally lower commodity prices. However, we would
expect the path against other G10 currencies to be driven more by data
into September, as the market watches the Fed closely."
EUR: "We believe EUR could benefit from the latest developments in China. CNY
moves could spill over into general asset market volatility. This would
support currencies with current account surpluses that have been used
to fund risky holdings, as investors unwind their risky positions. EUR
is such a currency. In addition, many investors have hedged their
European equity holdings, and as these positions are unwound, this will
lead to buying back of hedges, supporting EUR."
JPY: "We believe JPY is likely to face conflicting forces following the
developments in China. On the one hand, this increases deflationary
risks for Japan, as a weaker CNY could lead to disinflationary pressure
in Japan. It also challenges Japanese competitiveness, given the impact
on the REER. On the other hand, uncertainty on CNY is likely to
de-stabilize risk appetite, leading to repatriation and supporting JPY.
Overall, we expect the latter effect to win out in impact, but recognize
GBP: "The dovish inflation report and risk appetite getting hit has provided
some headwinds for GBP. However with China developments still playing on
markets’ minds and the Fed coming back into play, we believe GBPUSD is
going to be driven more by the USD side of the pair. The BoE is still
one of the central banks heading towards a hike next year so GBP should
gain some relative strength. Here we like to buy against the more
vulnerable commodity currencies (CAD, NOK and AUD)."
AUD: "We believe AUD is likely to be an underperformer following the
developments in China this week, though stabilization in the near term
could provide some relief for the currency. However, given China’s close
trade relations with China, any CNY weakness will lead to de facto AUD
REER appreciation, which may be countered by AUDUSD weakness in order to
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 08:18
Goldman Sachs - Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD (based on forexlive article)
Goldman Sachs made Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD and those are the following comments (below their chart):
If we look at the other patterns so we can see just two situations around: short-term (forming bearish patterns) and long-term (forming bullish patterns).
This is forming bearish gartley for H12 timeframe:
This is the forming bearish retracement pattern for H8 timeframe:
Long-tern situation with bullish
Forming bullish butterfly pattern and forming bullish 3-Drives pattern for MN1:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 09:53
BNP Paribas for USD - 'We expect to be a choppy second half of August' (based on efxnews article)
BNP Paribas are forecasting the strong USD but with the secondary ranging market condition - just because of China
news on Fed expectations:
As we see from the chart - Dollar Index Future (DXY) is located above
100-SMA/200-SMA for bullish condition and, seems, this bullish condition
will be continuing in August as well. But the choppy market was started
in the end of April this year and there is no any indication that this
choppy condition will be finished by the beginning of September. Thus,
we can confirm the forecast made by BNP Paribas.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 20:02
Friday held the MA. Today more below. (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD closed last week by keeping the 100 hour MA (blue line in the
chart below) as a support level. Today in the Asia-Pacific session, the
price dipped below that moving average level, and has stayed below (at
least on a closing basis) since that time. The weaker than expected
Empire manufacturing has push the price back above the moving average,
but last hours closing price could still not close above it. So there is
some reluctance to have a momentum shift to the upside. The current
100 hour moving average comes in at 1.11147."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 10:21
FOMC Meeting Minutes expectations by Barclays and September Fed hike (based on efxnews article)
Barclays made a forecast for high impacted fundamental news events
which will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The bank is telling that
Federal Open Market Committee is already made a decision concerning a September
Fed hike. Besides, Barclays is expecting the USD dollar to gain strength because "fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing
investors out of risky assets":
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 20:21
BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 06:54
Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:
Just a situation for this pair before USD - CPI:
We see sell stop and buy stop levels on the chart (red dotten line and blue dotted line).
This is half an hour after USD CPI news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.20 08:34
Time To Turn Bullish On EUR - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
EUR will be on bullish, and the main reason for CS to decide it is the
still-high risk that the ECB may have to re-enter the
easing fray down the line:
"For example, as Exhibit 2 shows, European inflation breakevens have
also been falling recently. With the ECB's credibility is on the line as
it proceeds with its QE program, it is hard to imagine it standing pat
for long and allowing sustained EUR strength to provide a fresh reason
for these indicators to push still lower."
By the way - EUR/USD was already turned to bullish in intra-day basis: