Daily price is on bearish condition for ranging between the following s/r levels:
Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging market condition by direction.
D1 price - ranging within key levels:
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0807
(W1) support level with 1.0461 as the next target, and 1.1466 (W1) resistance level.
is on ranging bearish with 1.0461 support level.If D1 price will break 1.0847
support level on close D1 bar so the bearish trend to be continuing for the week with secondary ranging market condition up to 1.0807 as a next bearish target.If D1 price will break 1.0807
support level on close D1 bar so we may see good bearish breakdown of the price movement with next target as 1.0461.If D1 price will break 1.1113 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.If not so the price will be on ranging between the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging bearish
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 17:44
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.08 10:14
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY and GOLD (based on dailyfx article)
- "This week docket isn’t
shabby for market movers – retail sales, UofM sentiment survey, upstream
inflation reports, small business optimism and a July labor conditions
aggregate – but none of the offerings carry the mark of a decisive view
changer. With the market still not fully pricing a Fed hike until
January while the Fed sees two this year, there is premium to tap. Yet,
it will be difficult to tap this week."
- "Upcoming UK Jobless Claims figures will be of
special interest as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made clear that
interest rate policy will depend on economic data. Current consensus
estimates predict that the Claimant Count Rate—the percentage of
eligible workforce participants claiming unemployment benefits—remained
near multi-decade lows through July. Just as importantly, economists
expect that Average Weekly Earnings growth remained near its highest in
five years through June. Downside surprises in either could force fairly
important losses in the British Pound."
- "A handful of Chinese releases is also noteworthy.
July’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers are due to cross
the wires. As with the US, data flow out of the behemoth East Asian
economy has improved in recent months. At minimum, this hints that the
probability for particularly dour results that raise concerns about
negative spillover to Australia is comparatively low relative to the
- "With USD/JPY snapping back from a fresh weekly of
125.06, the lack of following-through behind the NFP reaction raises the
risk for a larger pullback, and the exchange rate may face a further
consolidation in the days ahead should we see another mixed batch of
data prints coming out of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, key
developments pointing to a stronger recovery may put the dollar-yen on a
more bullish course and may spur a test of 2015 highs (125.84) as the
Fed keeps the door open for a September liftoff."
- "From a technical standpoint gold has continued to
hold above critical support into 1067/70 where the median-line off the
2014 high converges on basic trendline support dating back to June 2006
and the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high. Weekly
momentum has also continued to hold above the 30-threshold and as noted
last week, gold remains vulnerable for a near-term recovery while above
this region. Note that although prices are lower for a seventh
consecutive week, gold has been unable to test the 5-year low made back
on July 24th. Key
resistance remains at 1145/50 with only a break above the upper
median-line parallel off the yearly high invalidating the broader
downside bias (bearish invalidation~ 1175). A break of the lows targets
the 2010 low at 1044 backed by a key longer-term Fibonacci confluence
lower down at 975/80."
Something Interesting in Financial Video August 2015
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.08 20:54
Trading Video: Will US Stock Indexes and the Dollar Finally Break This Week? (based on dailyfx article)
'Data to leverage the US Dollar seems far less capable than key Euro-area GDP figures and Chinese economic event risk for the Euro and Aussie Dollar respectively. We discuss what lies ahead and the proper strategy calibrations in this weekend Trading Video.'
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.09 07:36
Morgan Stanley Next Week Forecast - USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD (based on efxnews article)
USD: Bullish"We stick to our bullish USD view. Recent comments from Fed Governor
Lockhart suggest that September is still very much in play, and as
markets bring the timing of the first hike forward, this should support
EUR: Bearish"The EUR has been difficult to trade recently given that European
stories such as Greece or the ECB have gone away from the market’s
focus. Instead we expect EURUSD to trade lower on more optimism on the
Fed. The US side of the story will dominate trading this pair."
JPY: Neutral"We remain bullish on JPY for a few reasons. First, we continue to see
signs of domestic reflation that could bring the BoJ closer to
tightening. Second, with commodity currencies falling, the risk environment may be
pressured, which will also support JPY. The main risk here would be a
China stimulus which supports risk and weighs on JPY."
GBP: Neutral"The inflation report was more dovish than the market was expecting,
causing GBPUSD to move below 1.55. For the path
of GBPUSD over coming weeks we put most emphasis on the USD side. With
Lockhart putting a September rate hike firmly in the market’s mind now,
as rate expectations rise, this should support the USD side."
AUD: Bearish"Commodities are likely to weigh on AUD, and we retain our medium term
bearish AUD view. However, we see two possible legs of support in the
near term. First, the RBA has raised the bar for cuts, and as the market
digests this, the currency may benefit. Second, any growth supportive
fiscal stimulus in China would likely benefit AUD the most within the
G10 space. We would look to sell on rallies."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 08:01
The Royal Bank of Scotland - After the BoE’s "Super Thursday" (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 17:09
Barclays for EURUSD - The Decision Is Taken (based on efxnews article)
Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that
FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting.
Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between
job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.11 06:56
JP Morgan estimated the false breakout by bouncing back starting to
range between very strong support/resistance levels. Market refused to
make necessary breaks to established good stable trend, says JP Morgan.
Thus, JP Morgan descovered 2 very strong s/r levels:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.11 12:26
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken - Intraday For EUR/USD and USD/CNH (based on efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB - Swedish financial group with
headquarters in Stockholm/Sweden) is continuing intra-day forecast. For
now - we are having some analysis for EUR/USD and USD/CNH:
EUR/USD"The pair moved a tad higher (1.1042) than expected before turning around
and falling back lower. A close at current levels (or lower) will
create yet another 55d ma band rejection indicating that the sellers
still are in control. A sustained break below 1.0926 will sharply up a
bearish outlook calling for a swift continuation down to the recent low
USD/CNH"Today’s extremely impulsive move higher has cancelled out the idea that
the move up from the 2014 low point was a three wave upside corrective
move. Today’s break above 6.3014 makes such a wave count obsolete and
instead warns of creating either a more complex upside correction
pattern (theoretically targeting the 6.48-area) OR a having entered a
third of a third wave (allowing for considerably higher levels over the
medium term horizon)."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.12 08:09
EUR/USD - bulls in control (based on forexlive article)
EURUSD was up and down again for ranging on the back of the China surprise and the news that Greek creditors reached a deal. The price reached the border between bearishand bullish trend and stopped near some key resistance levels such as 1.1113/1.1215/1.1466.
The bulls market is under control as there are few strong resistance levels on the way for the price to be reversed. For example, 200-SMA value is located at 1.25 on weekly chart and at 1.1466 on daily chart so the price should go quite a long way through many levels on the way to possible reversal. Any fundamental news events may move the pair to be down or increase the choppy situation for the downtrend to come later for this pair.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.13 08:18
BofA Merrill about doubts concerning the ability of the USD to rally further (based on efxnews article)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is dispalling the doubts about the
ability of the USD to rally further and about the EURUSD to resume the
bearish market condition. Strong USD skeptics are providing some arguments that USD can not be more stronger than now:
Yes, positive Eurozone data surprises, and negative US data surprises, but skeptics are missing 2 additional main arguments:
according to BofA Merrill, the USD will become more stronger compare
with EUR and we will see the price as 1.04/1.05 by the end of this year