Daily price was on good breakdown for the last week: the price broke key support levels incl Ichimoku cloud and came to the primary bearish zone on this timeframe. D1 price was stopped by 1180.13 support level near 'reversal' Sinkou Span A line on the way to downtrend.
the price will cross 1180.13 support level so breakdown within the primary bearish will be continuing, otherwise we will see the price to be reversed back to the bullish zone with secondary ranging between the levels.
is on bearish breakdown which was started on open W1 bar for now: the price was ranging between 1170.18 support and 1232.40 resistance since the beginning of March this year, and breakdown is started on open W1 bar for the price for trying to break 1170.18 support level.
is on ranging bearish with 1132.00 support levelIf D1 price will break 1180.13
support level on close D1 bar so we may see the primary bearish with secondary breakdown.If D1 price will break 1225.56 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuingIf not so the price will be on bullish ranging between 1180.13 and 1214.81 levels
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 18:19
Forex Weekly Outlook June 1-5 (based on forexcrunch article)
ISM Manufacturing PMI, Rate decisions in Australia, the UK
and the Eurozone, GDP data from Australia, Employment data from Canada
as well as important labor figures from the US including the
all-important NFP release. These are the highlights event on forex
calendar. Join us as we explore the market-movers of this week.
U.S. second GDP estimate was released, indicating the economy
contracted 0.7% in the first quarter, amid harsh winter storms, strong
dollar weighing on exports and labor disputes at West Coast ports. While
the first estimate a month ago, showed 0.2% growth. Economists say the
first quarter GDP reading is not accurate and expect a pick-up in the
next quarter. Also upbeat data in Durable goods orders and Consumer
sentiment fuels optimism about US economic growth.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.31 15:44
Weekly Gold Market Review (adapted from goldsilverworlds article)
"China has announced the establishment of a new international gold
fund with over 60 countries as members. The fund, which expects to raise
100 billion yuan ($16 billion), will develop gold mining projects
across the economic region known as the New Silk Road. The project will
facilitate the central banks of member states to acquire gold for their
reserves more easily.
While the conventional wisdom holds that
rising real rates would strengthen the dollar, which would in turn
pressure gold, Cornerstone Macro believes otherwise. In a recent piece
of research, it demonstrates how global growth determines the direction
of the U.S. dollar, not the U.S. economy. Only when the U.S. economy
briefly decouples, does the dollar strengthen, but this is rarer now as
global trade is 60 percent of world GDP and emerging market currencies
have a 69-percent weighting in the Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index."
"2015 has been a busy year for acquisitions as the value of gold deals
jumped more than 150 percent in the first quarter compared to a year
earlier. Producers are seizing on a wave of mine sales and tumbling
asset valuations to expand output or secure growth projects. This week
Barrick Gold announced that it signed a strategic partnership with Zijin
Mining Group which will take a stake in its Porgera Joint Venture gold
mine in Papua New Guinea. Under the deal, Zijin will acquire 50 percent
for $298 million in cash. It appears that Zijin received a very
favorable price on this transaction as Barrick is hoping to bring in a
partner on other South American assets which need a capital injection.
Additionally, Evolution Mining has agreed to pay $550 million for
Barrick’s Cowal mine in Australia’s New South Wales which went for
considerably more than where we see the relative valuation of this
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 06:51
Gold Trades in Narrow Range in Asian Trade - says
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research (based on wsj article)
Gold prices are trading in a narrow range in Asian trade. The precious
metal has largely been taking cues from the expected timing of Federal
Reserve’s interest rate increase. Data issued late last week showed the
U.S. GDP fell 0.7% in the first quarter, which traders are interpreting
to mean that a rate increase may come only late this year. However, the
dollar has held steady resulting in little price impact on gold as the
two typically have an inverse relation with each other. “The only
trigger for gold could be Greece, if it signals a debt default,” says
Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research. Investors
typically buy the precious metal during times of geo-political
uncertainty. Spot gold is currently trading up 65 cents at $1,190/oz.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 08:43
Gold Market To Remain Range Bound Ahead Of Employment Report (adapted from kitco article)
Sean Lusk, director
commercial hedging division at Walsh Trading said that gold has the
potential to pop higher this week but prices will remain within the
$100 range between resistance at $1,230 an ounce and $1,130 an ounce. “Right now there is a lack of conviction to take gold either way; I don’t think that is going to change,” he said.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that
although there is a lot of important economic reports to be released this week, unless the data is widely outside of expectations, it won’t
change the perception that the Fed will still hike rates in the second
half the of year. “I just don’t think we will see a break out next week,” he said. “So long as the data is not horrible the expectations will remain
that the Fed will raise interest rates in September,” he added.
George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management, said
that he is slightly bullish on gold as the market has already
priced in higher interest rates, limiting gold’s downside; however an
increase in wage, in Friday’s employment report could be seen as
positive for gold because it is considered inflationary.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum AG and author of
the In Gold We Trust report, agreed that the wage data in the
employment report will be an important indicator for the gold market in
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 14:58
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Core PCE Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.
"Personal income increased $59.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $48.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $2.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In March, personal income increased $4.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, DPI increased $0.5 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $65.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in April, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in March.
Real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent."
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XAUUSD: 407 pips price movement by USD - Core PCE Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 06:39
Gold Gains Allure as U.S. Economy Stumbles (based on wsj article)
“Gold is still cheap relative to fixed income [assets]…gold could really pop and move,” said Nicholas Johnson, who helps manage $20 billion invested in commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co.
Mr. Johnson wagered that gold prices would rise while 10-year
Treasury inflation-protected securities, which had rallied this year,
would pull back. The price of 10-year TIPS is up 2.52% this year,
according to data from Tradeweb, while gold prices are up 0.4%.
buying gold aren’t expecting another global recession. Instead, they
say that years in which gold was passed over for other assets has pushed
the metal’s price too low, and now it is ripe for a rebound.
prices tumbled 29% in 2013 and 2014, a selloff driven largely by the
Federal Reserve’s exit from its post-financial-crisis stimulus measures
and expectations for a rise in interest rates.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 13:55
Gold And Silver Charts For June 2015 (based on goldsilverworlds article)
"The chart notes indicate a greater likelihood for another dollar rally
higher, and an additional reason comes from the base out of which this
fiat paper currency has rallied. You can see how the “dollar” index has
been in a base trading range (TR) since 2006, on this chart, and said
base provides the impetus to carry price much higher than has developed,
"Higher time frame charts are for a truer reflection of market context
and direction, for it takes considerably more time and effort to change
the direction of monthly, and even higher time frames, to change.
Charts can be like a mosaic where you can see something unseen from one
viewing to another. We attribute this to the fact that when one makes a
presentment of a particular point of view, that view takes on a bias,
and that bias will block out information that does not support what is
being presented. This point of view may be too in-house, but there is a
sound basis for it.
The fact that price has not rallied higher
since the December swing low, coupled with a demonstrated inability to
break overhead resistance [horizontal line], keeps the December low in
question and positioned to be broken. Too soon to tell but something of
which to be aware."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 18:42
Global Gold Markets get a boost from the current Greek Financial Crisis (based on goldsilverworlds article)
"While, the government of Greece negotiates with its
creditors, customers are abandoning Greek banks in droves as doubts over
the country’s economic future grow. In the last three days or
so, a staggering €800 million (£570 million) has been pulled out of
Greek banks, sparking fears of a major bank run. Fearing a total
financial collapse, savers have been pulling cash out of their bank
accounts and the government has struggled to make benefit payments.
to data from the European Central Bank, Greek bank deposits are now at
their lowest level since 2004, falling to $198.89 billion from more than
$242 billion just five months ago."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 06:59
Gold Prices Close Higher on Weaker Dollar (adapted from wsj article)
Gold prices edged higher Tuesday, boosted by a weaker dollar.
for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, closed up 0.5%
at $1,194.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York
The possibility of a deal between Greece and its creditors
boosted the euro against the dollar Tuesday, with the single currency
gaining 2.1% to $1.1161, its highest level in almost two weeks.
Stronger-than-expected eurozone consumer price data
for May helped the euro extend its gains. A softer dollar is good news
for gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes more
affordable for foreign buyers when the greenback weakens.
“The falling dollar has been the main mover for gold today,” said George Gero,
a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. “There
is a good potential for a Greek deal this week, which would signify
more euro strength and more upside for gold.”